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NSE Intra-day chart (04 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 05 October 2017
Benchmarks likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues

Indian equity benchmarks ended marginally higher on Wednesday driven by gains in select heavyweights including JSW Steel, Tata Steel and Power Grid, amid broadly positive global cues. Markets made a positive start and extended gains as the day progressed, as traders took some support with a private report that India's GDP growth is likely to average 7% from 2024-25 to 2029-30. Some support also came with report stating that the government is formulating action plans for as many as 20 agricultural products including banana, mangoes, potato and baby corn with a view to further boost export of these commodities. Traders took note of an article in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monthly bulletin released that to achieve its developmental goals over the next three decades, the Indian economy must grow at a rate of 8-10 per annum over the next decade to reap the demographic dividend that started accruing from 2018 and, as calculations show, will last till 2055. However, markets trimmed some gains in late afternoon deals, as traders turned cautious with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest bulletin stating that extreme weather events along with prolonged geopolitical tensions could pose a risk to India’s inflation trajectory, even as growth in the South Asian nation exhibits an uptrend. It said food price pressures have been interrupting the ongoing disinflation process even as shocks from adverse climate events and geopolitical tensions add uncertainties to the outlook. Some concern also came as the country's agriculture exports declined by 8.8 per cent to $43.7 billion during April-February period of 2023-24 fiscal due to factors like the Red Sea crisis, Russia-Ukraine war, and domestic restrictions imposed on critical items like rice, wheat, sugar and onion. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the exports stood at $47.9 billion in April-February 2022-23. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 114.49 points or 0.16% to 73,852.94 and the CNX Nifty was up by 34.40 points or 0.15% points to 22,402.40.

The US markets ended mostly in green on Wednesday. A positive reaction to the latest corporate earnings news initially contributed to an extended rebound on markets following the considerable weakness seen last week. Shares of Tesla (TSLA) spiked by 12.1 percent even though the electric vehicle maker reported weaker than expected first quarter results. The surge by Tesla came after CEO Elon Musk said the company plans to start production of a new affordable model by early 2025. Semiconductor company Texas Instruments (TXN) also saw significant strength after reporting first quarter results that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Shares of Visa (V) and Mattel (MAT) also moved to the upside after the companies reported better than expected quarterly results. However, buying interest waned shortly after the start of trading, with traders still worried about the outlook for interest rates ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Later this week, the Commerce Department is due to release a report on personal income and spending that includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Fed. On the sectoral front, the Commerce Department released a report showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods surged by more than expected in the month of March. The report said durable goods orders soared by 2.6 percent in March after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in February. Street had expected durable goods orders to spike by 2.3 percent compared to the 1.3 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month.

Crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday on stronger dollar. Traders tracked progress toward fresh sanctions against Iran, with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian expressing disapproval of the European Union's recent move to broaden sanctions. Oil prices fell despite crude oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly pulled back sharply in the week ended April 19th, according to a report released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA said crude oil inventories plunged by 6.4 million barrels last week after jumping by 2.7 million barrels in the previous week. Street had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 1.6 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell $0.55 or 0.66% to settle at $82.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery dropped $0.40 or 0.45% to $88.02 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled almost unchanged against the US dollar on Wednesday, as the support from positive domestic equities was negated by rising American currency. Elevated crude oil prices and significant foreign fund outflows in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Some concern also came as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest bulletin stated that extreme weather events along with prolonged geopolitical tensions could pose a risk to India’s inflation trajectory, even as growth in the South Asian nation exhibits an uptrend. It said food price pressures have been interrupting the ongoing disinflation process even as shocks from adverse climate events and geopolitical tensions add uncertainties to the outlook. On the global front, U.S. dollar regained some lost ground on Wednesday following big falls against the euro and sterling the day before, while the yen remained mired near 34-year lows even as Japanese officials stepped up intervention warnings. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.30 (Provisional), stronger by 1 paise from its previous close of 83.31 on Tuesday.

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 15040.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 18498.57 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 753.47 crore with gross sales of Rs 2629.00 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 54.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 51.79 crore.

The US markets ended mostly in green with marginal gains on Wednesday as investors weighed an uptick in Treasury yields amid positive corporate results particularly from technology giants. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday mirroring moves on Wall Street ahead of the US first-quarter gross domestic product figures due on April 25. Indian markets ended range-bound session with slim gains on Wednesday as selling pressure in information technology (IT) stocks intensified in the fag-end. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 2,511.74 crore on April 24, provisional data from the NSE showed. However, some support may come with a private report that merger and acquisition (M&A) deal value soared by 60 per cent to USD 19.6 billion in January-March 2024, while that of private equity (PE) experienced a slight dip. With 455 deals amounting to $25.6 billion disclosed value, the first quarter of 2024 showcases a 24 per cent rise in deal volume compared to the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023 - marking a notable resurgence. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has issued Master Direction to the Asset Reconstruction Companies. An Asset Reconstruction Company (ARC) is a financial institution that buys the Non-Performing Assets (NPA) or bad assets from banks and financial institutions so that the latter can clean up their balance sheets. There will be some buzz in pharma industry stocks with the commerce ministry data showing that the country's drugs and pharmaceuticals exports increased 9.67 per cent year-on-year to $27.9 billion in 2023-24, even as the total exports dipped by 3 per cent in the last fiscal. In 2022-23, the exports stood at $25.4 billion. As per the data, pharma exports in March grew by 12.73 per cent to $2.8 billion. IT sector stocks will be in focus as Crisil Ratings said the Indian IT services sector is staring at a second consecutive year of muted revenue growth due to modest increase in tech spends in Europe and the US. It expects the sector to grow at 5-7 per cent in FY25, after a growth of 6 per cent estimated to have been achieved in FY24. There will be some reaction in sugar industry stocks with report that the government has allowed sugar mills to use 6.7 lakh tonnes of B-heavy molasses as feedstock for making ethanol in the current year. The move comes following the industry's representations to the food ministry to allow B-heavy molasses for ethanol production and improve the finances of the sugar mills. On the earnings front, Nestle India, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Indusind Bank, Glenmark Life Sciences, Coromandel International, Cyient, L&T Technology Services, Laurus Labs, Mphasis, Schaeffler India, Tanla Platforms, UTI Asset Management Co., and Zensar Technologies will report their Q4FY24 results today, April 25, 2024.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

22,402.40

22,365.45

22,457.90

BSE Sensex

73,852.94

73,720.49

74,053.49

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

598.95

165.70

162.46

167.91

Power Grid

193.24

290.10

285.71

293.16

Hindalco

117.76

636.00

617.25

646.20

HDFC Bank

112.21

1512.90

1507.39

1520.09

NTPC

111.32

351.60

348.21

354.06

  • Tata Motors’ subsidiary -- TPEM has signed a non-binding MoU with Vertelo, a Macquarie managed integrated fleet electrification platform, for the delivery of 2,000 XPRES-T EVs.
  • NTPC has signed a Supplementary Joint Venture Agreement-3 with NHPC, POWERGRID, DVC & CPRI.
  • L&T has manufactured a hydrotreating reactor for the Antonio Dovali Jaime Refinery at Salina Cruz, in Mexico.
  • Bharti Airtel has registered 2.2 million customers using 5G service in the state of Kerala.

News Analysis