Monday
turned-out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks with
frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 33,000 (Sensex) and 10,100 (Nifty)
levels, as sentiments got soothed on reports that the United States and China
have quietly started negotiations to improve US access to Chinese markets eased
fears of a trade war between the two economic giants. Markets started the
session with caution and traded choppy for most part of the day, as traders
remained concerned on Assocham's report that the escalation of global trade
protectionist measures into a full-scale global trade war will damage the
Indian economy as well. A full-scale global trade war will impact the country's
exports and enlarge its current account deficit (CAD). FICCI has said India
should play a proactive role in defusing the emerging possibilities of a global
trade war that can derail the positive outlook in the world trade. Sentiments
also remained dampened on report that the country's foreign exchange reserves
decreased marginally by $152.4 million to $421.334 billion in the week to March
16, on account of a fall in foreign currency assets. In the previous week, the
reserves had increased by $728.9 million to $421.487 billion. The reserves had
touched a life-time high of $421.914 billion on February 9, FY18. Adding some
worries on the street, the government reported that as many as 359
infrastructure projects, each worth Rs 150 crore and above, have shown cost
overrun to the tune of Rs 2.18 lakh crore owing to delays and other reasons.
However, markets pared all of their initial losses and turned green, as traders
went for value buying after two sessions of drubbing. Traders took
encouragement with finance ministry stating that India is on track to doubling
the size of its economy to $5 trillion by 2025. Economic Affairs Secretary
Subhash Chandra Garg said that the country is well poised to click a growth
rate of 7-8% and with focus on start-ups, MSMEs and infrastructure investment
it can step on to higher growth pedestal. Also, traders got some relief with report
that SEBI is planning to increase the maximum investment by angel funds in
venture capital undertakings to Rs 10 crore from the current Rs 5 crore. Finally,
the BSE Sensex surged 469.87 points or 1.44% to 33,066.41, while the CNX Nifty
was up by 132.60 points or 1.33% to 10,130.65.
Snapping three
day losing streak, the US markets ended the Monday's trade with massive gains,
as trade tensions between the U.S. and China appeared to ease. Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin said that he is cautiously hopeful a trade agreement can be
reached. He said that the U.S. would proceed with plans to impose tariffs on
Chinese imports but stressed that negotiations are ongoing. He added, we are
not putting them on hold unless we have an acceptable agreement that the
president signs off on. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also told a conference on
Monday that the U.S. and China should maintain negotiations to avoid a trade
war. Fears of a trade war mounted this month after Trump slapped tariffs on
steel and aluminium imports and then on Thursday announced plans for tariffs on
up to $60 billion of Chinese goods. Signs of potential compromise were also
supported by news that South Korea would be exempt from U.S. steel tariffs in a
revision of the bilateral trade pact between the two countries. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average surged 669.40 points or 2.84 percent to 24,202.60, the
Nasdaq soared 227.88 points or 3.26 percent to 7220.54, while the S&P 500
was up by 70.29 points or 2.72 percent to 2,658.55.
Crude oil futures edged slightly
lower on Monday, trimming last week's significant gains, with traders weighing
trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as China marked the start of trading
for its own crude futures contract. Oil traders also factored in the
appointment of John Bolton as U.S. national security adviser, which has
potential implications on the nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, on Friday,
Baker Hughes reported that U.S. drillers continued to add rigs last week. The
rig count has jumped to its highest since 2015. Benchmark crude oil futures for
May delivery slipped 33 cents or 0.5 percent at $65.55 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude shed 33 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at
$70.02 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Extending
gains for the third straight session, Indian rupee ended stronger against
dollar on Monday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Market
participants got some comfort with finance ministry's statement that India is
on track to doubling the size of its economy to $5 trillion by 2025. Economic
Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said that the country is well poised to
click a growth rate of 7-8 percent and with focus on start-ups, MSMEs and
infrastructure investment it can step on to higher growth pedestal. Besides,
last hour recovery in local equity markets also influenced the rupee
sentiments. On the global front, the pound strengthened against its major
counterparts on Monday amid risk appetite, as fears over a trade war eased
after news that US and China have begun talks for refining access of American
goods to China. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.86, 15 paise stronger from its
previous close of 65.01 on Friday.
The FIIs as per Monday's data
were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, in equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 8219.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 5589.01 crore, while
in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1615.83 crore with gross
sales of Rs 1301.75 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was
of Rs 4.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.33 crore.
Bargain hunting
contributed to the rally on Wall Street, with the Dow bouncing off its lowest closing
level in nearly four months. Traders were inspired to pick up stocks at reduced
levels amid easing concerns about a potential trade war between the U.S. and
China. Asian stocks rally in early deals on Tuesday after Wall Street rebounded
on the first day of the trading week amid a slight easing in trade tensions. Indian
markets edged higher on Monday as concerns eased over the U.S. action of
selective imposition of import tariffs. Today, the start of the session is
likely to be on the positive side tracking firm global cues amid easing
concerns about a potential trade war. Traders will be taking some support with
the government's decision to bring down market borrowings during the first-half
of FY19 following careful assessment of its financial needs. The Centre will
raise a gross Rs 2.88 lakh crore from market borrowings in the first half of
the fiscal. It has also chosen to introduce shorter duration government
securities and will also an additional Rs 25,000 crore from the National Small
Savings Fund against the Budgeted Rs 75,000 crore to cut down its requirement
for fund raising. The markets will continue to take some support with Economic
Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that the country is well
poised to click a growth rate of 7-8 per cent and with focus on start-ups,
MSMEs and infrastructure investment it can step on to higher growth pedestal.
Traders may also draw some support with NITI Aayog's statement that the Indian
economy is growing at 7 -8 per cent which needs to be reflected on the human
development index (HDI) wherein the country stands at 131st position out of 188
nations. Meanwhile, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has said the task
force on direct tax reforms will submit its report in the next 4-5 months. Some
strength may also come from report that More than 1,200 new foreign investors
were registered with Sebi in the first 10 months of the ongoing fiscal,
primarily due to their continued interest in the Indian capital markets.
Support
and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
10,130.65
|
10,011.63
|
10,196.58
|
BSE Sensex
|
33,066.41
|
32,682.58
|
33,282.82
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
SBI
|
303.74
|
246.50
|
237.88
|
251.48
|
ICICI Bank
|
246.19
|
281.65
|
277.35
|
284.55
|
Yes Bank
|
242.40
|
303.35
|
291.27
|
310.17
|
Vedanta
|
148.76
|
283.30
|
272.70
|
289.95
|
Indian Oil Corporation
|
132.72
|
167.20
|
164.70
|
169.35
|
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