The last trading day of the week
turned out to be a choppy session for key Indian equity benchmarks, with the
both the larger peers, Sensex and Nifty, closing the trading session on flat
note. The equity markets made a negative start of the day, with Moody's
statement that the fresh round recapitalisation of 12 state-run banks is
positive as it will help them improve their core capital but a complete
turnaround is still away due to the large quantum of legacy bad loans. It said
these banks are far from a complete turnaround as large volumes of
problem-loans will still continue to cap improvements in profitability and
capitalisation, constraining their credit profiles. Domestic sentiments
remained subdued after the release of the minutes of Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) last policy meet, in which governor Shaktikanta Das argued the need to look
at growth concerns. However, further fall in markets remained capped, amid Niti
Aayog's note stating that the host of reforms undertaken by the government has
transformed India into the fastest-growing major economy along with the
macroeconomic stability not witnessed in the past. The street got some relief
with the CriSidEx survey stating that micro and small enterprises (MSEs) are
becoming more optimistic about their business prospects. The CriSidEx index
rose to 128 in Q3FY19, the highest score since its inception. In comparison,
the index was at 107 in Q3FY18. Adding some support, Commerce and Industry
Minister Suresh Prabhu said that India and Russia are working to address and
resolve trade and investment issues to facilitate and increase private sector
cooperation between the countries. Meanwhile, Retirement fund body Employees'
Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has announced an increase in interest rate
to 8.65 percent from 8.55 percent on PF deposits for 2018-19, to its 6 crore
subscribers. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 26.87 points or 0.07% to 35,871.48,
while the CNX Nifty was up by 1.80 points or 0.02% to 10,791.65.
The US markets settled higher on
Friday amid continuing hopes for a trade deal between the US and China.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that Chinese negotiators will extend
their visit to Washington in an effort to build on the progress made during
this week's talks. Mnuchin said a meeting between President Donald Trump and
Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly under discussion for next month may
depend on the outcome of the next few days of negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump
said during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu that US and Chinese are
making a lot of progress in the trade talks. Trump said there was a very good
chance the US and China could reach a long-term trade deal but at the same time
said who knows whether a final agreement will be struck. According to private
report which stated that China has committed to buying up to $1.2 trillion
worth US goods, although the two sides remain far apart on issues concerning
the forced transfer of intellectual property. Trump had recently suggested he
could postpone an increase in tariffs set to take effect in early March if the
trade talks continue to show signs of progress. Dow Jones Industrial Average
surged 181.18 points or 0.70 percent to 26031.81, Nasdaq gained 67.84 points or
0.91 percent to 7527.54 and S&P 500 was up by 17.79 points or 0.64 percent
to 2792.67.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Friday as US equities and other assets found traction against the backdrop of
upbeat US-China trade talks. The US and Chinese trade representatives
reportedly met for more than nine hours Thursday. Trump met with China's top
trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He on Friday. Still, deep divisions remain
over fundamental issues, with US pressing China to halt what Washington calls
illicit technology transfers and improper subsidies for state-owned firms. For
the week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose roughly 3%. The international
benchmark (Brent crude) gained 1.3% for the week. Benchmark crude oil futures
for April gained 30 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $57.26 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. April Brent crude added 5 cents or less than 0.1
percent to settle at $67.12 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian
rupee ended marginally higher against US dollar on Friday as exporters and
banks stepped up selling of the American currency. Sentiments remained positive
with Niti Aayog's report stating that the host of reforms undertaken by the
government has transformed India into the fastest-growing major economy along
with the macroeconomic stability not witnessed in the past. The market
participants took a note of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy
committee (MPC) statement in minutes released on Thursday that India needs to
take steps to boost economic growth as the inflation outlook remains low. The
rupee's rise was also aided by falling crude oil prices. However, dollar's
strength against major global currencies overseas along with lackluster trade
in the equity markets capped the rupee's gain. On the global front, dollar held
gains against its peers early on Friday, bolstered by a rise in US yields.
Finally, the rupee ended at 71.14, 10 paise stronger from its previous close of
71.24 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4887.97 crore against gross
selling of Rs 5225.58 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 1171.57 crore with gross sales of Rs 437.15 crore. Besides, in the hybrid
segment, the gross selling was of Rs 1.33 crore against no buying.
The US markets ended higher on
Friday as traders continued to express optimism about ongoing trade talks
between the US and China. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday
after US President Donald Trump confirmed he would delay a planned increase on
Chinese imports as talks between the two sides were making substantial
progress. Indian markets ended a choppy session on a flat note on Friday amid
selling pressure after RBI MPC minutes expressed concerns about growth. Today,
the markets are likely to make a cautious start of the F&O series expiry
week despite positive cues from Asian peers. There will be some cautiousness
with report that foreign portfolio investors sold debt securities worth over Rs
1,900 crore in February amid escalation of cross-border tensions in the wake of
Pulwama terror attack. Latest data from the depositories showed that overseas
players pumped in Rs 2,039 crore into equities even as they dumped debt during
February till 22. Traders will also be concerned about Financial Services
Secretary Rajiv Kumar's statement that ensuring intermediation by financial
institutions like banks and NBFCs in a clean manner is one of the major
challenges faced by the Indian banking sector. He added that making credit
rating agencies more accountable is also another challenge. However, some
support may come later in the day with Commerce and industry minister Suresh
Prabhu's statement that the government is making a strategy to make India a $5
trillion economy and simultaneously fine tuning the plan to take it to $10
trillion. Some support may also come with the Central Board of Indirect Taxes
and Customs (CBIC) setting up three working groups to suggest ways to
facilitate exports, especially through e-commerce, and improve compliance by
way of curbing tax evasion. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
announced that it will merge three categories of Non Banking Financial
Companies (NBFCs) into a new one. According to a release, NBFCs categorized as
Asset Finance Companies (AFC), Loan Companies (LCs) and Investment Companies
(ICs), will be merged into a new category called NBFC - Investment and Credit
Company (NBFC-ICC). There will be some buzz in the real estate sector stocks
with report that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council slashed tax rate on
under-construction residential properties, making the effective tax rate 5% for
the normal category and 1% for the affordable housing category. In both cases,
builders will not be able to claim the input tax credit (ITC). There will be
some reaction in banking sector stocks with report that the finance ministry
expects three to four more lenders to come out of weak bank list of the Reserve
Bank in the next six to eight months on account of improvement in financial
health amid capital infusion and falling bad loans.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
10,791.65
|
10,766.18
|
10,809.33
|
BSE Sensex
|
35,871.48
|
35,797.62
|
35,943.52
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Kotak Mahindra Bank
|
838.60
|
1,237.90
|
1,222.60
|
1,255.60
|
Yes Bank
|
513.30
|
222.00
|
215.50
|
226.10
|
IOC
|
249.95
|
137.20
|
133.27
|
139.57
|
ONGC
|
182.74
|
148.60
|
146.97
|
150.37
|
Indiabulls Housing Finance
|
144.88
|
679.95
|
666.33
|
702.78
|
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