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NSE Intra-day chart (21 May 2020)
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Market Commentary 22 May 2020
Markets to open in red amid weak global cues

 

In a volatile session, Indian equity benchmarks climbed off their respective day's high levels in the last leg of trade but ended with gains for the third straight day on Thursday, due to the gains in Auto, FMCG and Metal stocks. Key indices made a cautious start but quickly gained traction, as the union cabinet cleared Rs 3 lakh crore micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) funding scheme to mitigate the economic distress being faced by the small businesses in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Buying further crept in as the Trade Promotion Council of India (TPCI) said that with the government taking steps in the agriculture and food sector, industry will be able to achieve export target of $100 billion worth in the next five years by focusing on untapped global markets like Africa, Latin America, Middle East and Oceania. However, markets erased most of gains in late trade, as domestic rating agency ICRA warned of a deep recession as it drastically lowered FY21 growth forecast for India to minus 5 percent, citing the very modest fiscal support, extension of the nationwide lockdown and looming labour shortage. The agency also sharply revised downwards the growth contraction in Q1 to 25 percent as against the previous forecast of 16-20 percent and to minus 2.1 percent in Q2 from 2.1 percent growth previously, which implies a recession. But, trade remained in green as some optimism remained among traders with the finance ministry's monthly report on the macro economy stating that the government is ‘cautiously optimistic' about the revival of growth later in this fiscal, despite the pandemic-induced lockdown, and the country's current account may witness a small surplus in the June quarter. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 114.29 points or 0.37% to 30,932.90, while the CNX Nifty was up by 39.70 points or 0.44% to 9,106.25.

 

The US markets ended lower on Thursday due to profit taking, as some traders cashed in on the strong gains posted on previous session. Weakness also prevailed in the markets as tensions between the US and China appeared to heat up. US senators introduced a bipartisan bill that would sanction Chinese officials and entities who enforce the new national-security laws in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump appeared to attack Chinese leader Xi Jinping over Beijing's handling of the coronavirus. On the economic data front, First-time claims for US unemployment benefits pulled back further off the record high set in late March in the week ended May 16th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 2.438 million, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level of 2.687 million. Street had expected jobless claims to tumble to 2.400 million from the 2.981 million originally reported for the previous week. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report showing another steep drop in US existing home sales in the month of April. NAR said existing home sales plunged by 17.8 percent to an annual rate of 4.33 million in April after tumbling by 8.5 percent to 5.27 million in March. Street had expected existing home sales to plummet to a rate of 4.30 million. The continued nosedive pulled existing home sales down to their lowest level since hitting 3.45 million in July of 2010.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday, magnifying recent gains, on continued optimism about a pick-up in energy demand, and falling supply levels in the market. Demand is coming back slowly as business lockdowns gradually end with the coronavirus pandemic receding, while OPEC production cut and lower shale output has reduced the excess in supply. However, oil prices finished off the day's highs, pressured by profit-taking on the heels of US-China trade tensions. The US Energy Information Administration reported that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 81 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 15. Crude oil futures for July rose 43 cents or 1.3 percent to settle at $33.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude added 31 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $36.06 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee gained ground against dollar and ended higher on Thursday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders took encouragement as the union cabinet cleared Rs 3 lakh crore micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) funding scheme to mitigate the economic distress being faced by the small businesses in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, good going in the local equity markets gave the uptrend some momentum. However, further up-move got restricted as domestic rating agency ICRA warned of a deep recession as it drastically lowered FY21 growth forecast for India to minus 5 percent, citing the very modest fiscal support, extension of the nationwide lockdown and looming labour shortage. On the global front, dollar edged higher on Thursday as Sino-U.S. tensions and weak economic indicators in Europe dented sentiment after hopes of a quick economic recovery and further stimulus fuelled an overnight rally on Wall Street. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.61, 19 paise stronger from its previous close of 75.80 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4202.61 crore against gross selling of Rs 5902.80 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 779.31 crore with gross sales of Rs 543.79 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 13.20 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.84 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Thursday on a fresh wave of China-US tensions that raised doubts about the trade deal reached early this year between the world's two largest economies. Asian markets are trading in red on Friday as China announced plans to impose a national security law on Hong Kong and investors parsed through initial details coming out of the National People's Congress, China's biggest political event of the year. Indian markets ended higher for a third straight session on Thursday, though the upside remained capped amid concerns that the coronavirus pandemic will have a cascading effect on the global as well as domestic economy. Today, the markets are likely to open in red following weakness in global markets amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Besides, India rejected Beijing's claim that Indian troops trespassed into Chinese territory, and accused the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of hindering patrols by Indian soldiers. Investors will be eyeing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das' press conference to be held on later in the day. This will be third press conference of the governor in the context of COVID-19 related measures in last two months. Traders will be concerned with rising coronavirus cases in India. The country has recorded over 6,000 cases in a single day, taking its total coronavirus count to 118,226. As many as 3,548 people have died from the disease, according to Worldometer data. An emergency coronavirus vaccine would be available latest by January or February next year, said former director-general of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) N K Ganguly. There will be some cautiousness as India Ratings (Ind-Ra) expects most sectors to experience varying degrees of revenue contraction during FY21 due to demand and supply disruptions caused by the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, pandemic. Though, some support may come later in the day as the government said it has released Rs 92,077 crore towards devolution of central taxes to states for April and May. This is a special gesture to ensure that the states' cash flows remain undisturbed at this crucial time. Auto stocks will be in focus with Union Minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that the government is set to introduce a vehicle scrappage policy, under which recycling clusters may be established near ports, expressing confidence that India will emerge as the world's leading automobile manufacturing hub in five years.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,106.25

9,048.72

9,171.17

BSE Sensex

30,932.90

30,735.88

31,159.35

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

611.50

151.95

150.25

154.90

ITC

583.83

188.95

177.58

195.38

ICICI Bank

430.76

304.40

300.00

310.80

Tata Motors

372.91

84.10

82.93

85.23

Hindalco Industries

343.26

129.50

123.18

133.28

 

  • Cipla has received final approval for its ANDA for Dihydroergotamine Mesylate Nasal Spray 4mg/mL from the USFDA with a CGT designation. 
  • Tech Mahindra and ChampTrax Technologies, a Canadian sports startup, have collaborated to develop a solution to create stadium like-experience at home for global sports fans. 
  • M&M has unveiled a wide variety of innovative, new finance schemes to ease the burden on its customers during these challenging times. 
  • Tata Motors' wholly owned subsidiary -- Jaguar Land Rover has enhanced its online sales and service initiative amid the coronavirus pandemic.
News Analysis