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Market Commentary 16 July 2019
Markets likely to make a cautious start amid mixed cues from Asian peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks closed the Monday's trading session on higher note. After a positive start of the day, key indices remained in green for the most part of the session, aided by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the government has succeeded in keeping complete control over retail inflation. The government has achieved success in not allowing inflation to raise its dirty head to cause inconvenience to the consumers. Some comfort also came with the Reserve Bank's report that the forex kitty continued to surge for the fourth successive week to scale a new lifetime high of $429.911 billion, after a heavy increase in the value of gold and currency assets during the week to July 5. However, volatility witnessed in the markets during the day, as India's industrial production measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which gauges production in the industrial sector for a given period of time, slipped to 3.1% in May 2019, as compared to 3.8% growth in May 2018. But, reports of easing WPI inflation helped the indices to end in green terrain. India's Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation eased further for the third straight month in the month of June, driven down by decline in prices of fuel. According to the latest data released by the government, WPI slowed down to 2.02% in June from 2.45% in May and 5.68% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 160.48 points or 0.41% to 38,896.71, while the CNX Nifty was up by 35.85 points or 0.31% to 11,588.35.

 

The US market ended marginally higher on Monday on the back of positive earnings report from Citigroup, with the financial giant reporting second quarter results that beat street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. However, buying interest waned shortly after the start of trading as traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves ahead of the release of quarterly results from a slew of other big-name companies. Besides, investors also monitored a weak gross domestic product reading in China, with growth falling to its slowest pace since 1992. On the economic front, after reporting an unexpected contraction in regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report showing activity rebounded modestly in the month of July. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index climbed to 4.3 in July from a negative 8.6 in June, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Street had expected the index to rise to a positive 2.0. The bigger than expected rebound by the general business conditions index came after it recorded its first negative reading in over two years in the previous month. The rebound by the headline index came as the new orders index jumped to a negative 1.5 in July from a negative 12.0 in June, indicating new orders continued to contract but at a much slower rate. The report also said the shipments index dipped to 7.2 in July from 9.7 in June, although a positive reading still indicates growth. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 27.13 points or 0.10 percent to 27359.16, Nasdaq added 14.04 points or 0.17 percent to 8258.18 and S&P 500 was up by 0.53 points or 0.02 percent to 3014.30.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday as production in the Gulf of Mexico began a post-storm recovery. Oil and natural-gas output in the Gulf was picking up, with about 69% of Gulf oil production and nearly 61% of natural-gas production shut in. That marked an improvement from Sunday, when almost 73% of oil and 62% of natural-gas output was down. Besides, Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that US shale-oil production is likely to edge higher next month, by 49,000 barrels a day to 8.546 million barrels a day. Benchmark crude oil futures for August dropped 63 cents or 1.1 percent to settle at $59.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent fell 24 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $66.48 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Monday, due to increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks. Local investors cheered with data showing that Wholesale price-based inflation declined for the second consecutive month to its 23-month low of 2.02 percent in June, helped by decline in prices of vegetables as well as fuel and power items, The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was at 2.45 percent in May. It was 5.68 per cent in June 2018. However, weak macro-economic data weighed on the domestic currency and restricted the upmove. At 3.18 per cent, the inflation rate in India has touched 8-month high in June 2019. On the other hand, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth rate fell to 3.1% in May. On the global front, U.S. dollar fell against its most major counterparts on Monday, pressured by continued expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later this month, after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.54, 15 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.69 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4862.21 crore against gross selling of Rs 5584.73 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1564.30 crore with gross sales of Rs 911.76 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 18.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 33.69 crore.

 

The US markets ended marginally higher on Monday as investors digested second-quarter results from Citigroup, which reported a squeeze in interest margins, and awaited a wave of second-quarter earnings. Asian markets are trading mixed in early deals on Tuesday as investors looked to earnings and clues from policy makers for the next catalyst. Indian markets ended higher on Monday led by rally in IT stocks including Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS coupled with easing wholesale inflation. Today, the start of session is likely to be cautious amid mixed cues from Asian peers. There will be some cautiousness with report that India's exports declined by 9.71 per cent to $25.01 billion in June 2019 compared to $27.7 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in shipments of gems and jewellery, engineering goods and petroleum products. Imports too declined by 9 per cent to $40.29 billion in June 2019 against $44.3 billion in June 2018 mainly due to falling prices of petroleum products. The trade deficit also lowered to $15.28 billion in June from $16.6 billion in June 2018. Traders will be concerned about the IHS Markit India Business Outlook indicating that business sentiment in India fell to its lowest level since June 2016, as companies were worried over a slowing economy, government policies and water shortage. It added that predictions of softer activity growth underpin the downward revisions of profit outlook, subdued hiring plans and relatively muted capital expenditure. However, some support may come later in the day with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that GST collection of states and union territories (UTs) increased to Rs 5.18 lakh crore in the full financial year 2018-19, up from Rs 2.91 lakh crore collected in nine months of 2017-18. Traders may took note of Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India is open to ideas from all sides to strengthen investors' confidence so that they can invest and participate in the country's development. Meanwhile, the government has ordered SFIO probe in six cases, including that of Jet Airways and its six entities, in the first three months of the current financial year. The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO), which probes white-collar crimes, comes under the corporate affairs ministry. There will be some reaction in power stocks with Fitch Ratings' statement that a reduction of direct controlling stakes by the government of India in large state-owned energy companies is unlikely to negatively impact the ratings on these entities, as long as the government maintains majority effective ownership and broad control of their activities. There will be some earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,588.35

11,540.97

11,627.07

BSE Sensex

38,896.71

38,720.88

39,048.25

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

1,267.37

93.20

90.73

97.48

Infosys

310.64

779.35

761.82

789.27

Tata Motors

199.25

160.95

158.33

163.08

Sun Pharmaceutical

182.70

422.95

415.17

429.22

SBIN

156.66

360.05

356.77

364.17

 

  • Sun Pharma has launched Ezallor Sprinkle capsules in US. 
  • Tata Steel has reported consolidated steel production of 7.61 MT in Q1FY20, registering 9.18% growth. 
  • Infosys will make an additional investment of $6 million in data preparation software company Trifacta Inc. 
  • Yes Bank has successfully completed the issuance of corporate debt using blockchain built by fintech MonetaGo on R3's Corda Enterprise technology.
News Analysis