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NSE Intra-day chart (12 March 2019)
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Market Commentary 13 March 2019
Markets to make a cautious start amid weak IIP, CPI data

 

Bulls were on a run during Tuesday's trading session, with the both Indian equity indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, closing the day higher by smart gains of 482 and 133, respectively. Key indices made a fabulous start, aided by a private report stating that hiring activities registered 16 per cent growth this February mainly led by the IT and software industry that clocked a 38 per cent growth. The Naukri JobSpeak Index for February 2019 stood at 2,415 from 2,087 in February 2018. Adding optimism among the market participants, the Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council (TEXPROCIL) Chairman K.V. Srinivasan said that rebate of state and central taxes will improve the competitiveness of made ups products in the export markets. Buying also crept in with a report that key policymakers from India and African nations will brainstorm on strategies for scaling up bilateral trade volume to $150 billion in the next few years at the India-Africa Project Partnerships Conclave. Domestic Sentiments remained upbeat throughout the day, with a report stating that in a major overhaul of oil and gas exploration permits, the government will not charge any share of profit on hydrocarbons produced from less explored areas as it looks to attract the elusive private and foreign investment to raise domestic output. Positive cues from the global markets also supported the rally. Investors took a note of the report that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) board, which included the present Governor Shaktikanta Das as a director, had warned of short-term negative impact of demonetisation on the country's economic growth and observed that the unprecedented move will not have any material impact on tackling the black money menace. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 481.56 points or 1.30% to 37,535.66, while the CNX Nifty was up by 133.15 points or 1.19% to 11,301.20.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Tuesday on reports that indicated progress on a Sino-American trade deal, with China and the US reportedly close to a deal on currencies-an element in their broader trade dispute. Some support also came in after reporting no change in consumer prices over the past few months. The Labor Department released a report showing a modest increase in US consumer prices in the month of February. The report said the consumer price index rose by 0.2% in February after coming in unchanged for three straight months. The uptick in consumer prices matched street estimates. The increase in consumer prices was partly due to a rebound in gasoline prices, which surged up by 1.5% in February after plunging by 5.5% in January. The jump in gasoline prices contributed to a 0.4% rebound in energy prices, which matched the increase in food prices. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1% in February after rising by 0.2% in January. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower as shares of Boeing Company came under heavy pressure following a fatal crash over the weekend of a 737 Max aircraft. The continued drop by Boeing came after the European Union, China, the UK and other countries grounded the company's 737 MAX jets following the second crash in less than 6 months. The markets shrugged off the UK Parliament's rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, in part, as the outcome had been anticipated. Lawmakers will now have to decide whether they want a Brexit without a deal or possibly extend the March 29 deadline for leaving the European Union. S&P 500 gained 8.22 points or 0.30 percent to 2791.52 and Nasdaq was up by 32.97 points or 0.44 percent to 7591.03, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 96.22 points or 0.38 percent to 25554.66.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher for second straight day on Tuesday on signs of a supply crunch lingered and traders assessed the latest output forecasts. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) trimmed its forecasts for US crude production for this year and next, but both years are still on track for new production records. For 2020, the EIA cut its US oil output forecast by 1.3% to 13.03 million barrels a day. The March forecast expects the United States to become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products in 2020. Benchmark crude oil futures for April added 8 cents or 0.1 percent to settle at $56.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude gained 9 cents or 0.1 percent to settle at $66.67 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Extending gains for the second straight session, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Tuesday, on account of selling of American currency by banks and exporters. Traders took encouragement with a private report stating that hiring activities registered 16 per cent growth this February mainly led by the IT and software industry that clocked a 38 per cent growth. The Naukri JobSpeak Index for February 2019 stood at 2,415 from 2,087 in February 2018. Besides, weakness in the dollar against some other currencies overseas along with good going in the local equity markets supported the rupee. However, local unit cut most of the early gains, as anxiety remained among the traders ahead of macroeconomic data such as Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced after the market hours. On the global front, dollar fell on Tuesday after an apparent breakthrough in Brexit negotiations between the European Union and Britain encouraged buying of riskier currencies. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.71, 18 paise stronger from its previous close of 69.89 on Monday. 

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8104.46 crore against gross selling of Rs 4651.59 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1536.52 crore with gross sales of Rs 462.04 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.54 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Tuesday, taking cues from global stocks which rose after last-minute tweaks to Britain's deal to leave the European Union that eased some fears of a no-deal Brexit. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday amid reports that British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan was soundly defeated by lawmakers. Indian equity markets extended their gains for second straight session on Tuesday tracking positive trends in global markets and improved domestic sentiments amid overseas fund inflows. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid weak macro-economic data coupled with mixed cues from global markets. On the domestic economic front, the latest data from Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed that India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slipped to 1.7% in January from 7.5% a year ago. Subdued performance of the manufacturing sector, especially capital and consumer goods, mainly pulled down the growth in industrial production. Besides, Retail inflation rose to four-month high of 2.57% in February, mainly driven by higher food prices. Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 1.97% in January and 4.44% in February 2018. Food inflation based on CPI was in negative at 0.66% in February 2019. However, some support may come later in the day with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statement that it would infuse Rs 12,500 crore into the system through open market operations (OMOs) on March 14. Based on an assessment of prevailing liquidity conditions and also of the durable liquidity needs going forward, the RBI has decided to conduct purchase of the government securities under OMOs. Traders may take note of IT industry body Nasscom's report that public sector firms across half of the states along with the banking and financial sector are driving blockchain adoption in the country. Meanwhile, markets regulator SEBI has withdrew the 20% limit on investments by Foreign Portfolio Investors in corporate bonds of an entity. In a notification, the regulator said the restriction is being withdrawn in accordance with a circular issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). There will be some buzz in the media and entertainment (M&E) industry stocks with Ficci-EY report stating that the M&E industry is expected to cross the Rs 2.35-lakh-crore mark (around $ 33.6 billion) by 2021, clipping at 11.6% annually. There will be some reaction in electricity distribution companies stocks with ICRA's report that inadequate revision of rates along with delay in filing tariff petitions are likely to remain an area of concern in fiscal 2020 for distribution companies (Discoms).

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,301.20

11,245.33

11,338.73

BSE Sensex

37,535.66

37,315.46

37,671.24

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

371.08

388.20

380.70

392.35

Bharti Airtel

271.01

351.80

336.10

360.75

Yes Bank

221.01

235.85

234.17

238.37

SBI

208.28

286.90

285.13

289.28

NTPC

194.29

151.25

148.85

155.00

 

  • L&T's arm - L&T Construction's Power Transmission and Distribution business has bagged a number of Engineering, Procurement and Construction orders in India and abroad. 
  • ITC's biscuit brand -- Sunfeast Dark Fantasy has collaborated with Fresh Menu for an exclusive dessert range. 
  • Tata Motors has bagged orders for over 2,500 commercial passenger transportation vehicles from various institutional customers and the company is in the process of delivering these units. 
  • JSW Steel has reported Crude Steel production at 12.57 LT for February 2019, registering a fall of 6% over corresponding month of previous year.
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