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NSE Intra-day chart (07 October 2019)
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Market Commentary 09 October 2019
Markets to make a cautious start amid weak global cues


Indian equity bourses failed to hold gains on Monday and ended in red. After a cautious start, markets remained positive for the most part of the session, taking support from Niti Aayog Vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that with several steps taken by the government in the past couple of months to boost the economy, the country's growth is expected to be around 6.5% this year, although it is lower than expected. Some relief also came among investors because of the Finance Ministry's statement that the Reserve Bank's decision to lower benchmark lending rate will complement recent measures taken by the government to accelerate growth. But, in the last leg of trade, key indices slipped into negative terrain. Sentiments got hit with RBI's survey showing that the consumer sentiment declined further, and people are less optimistic about their income to rise over the year ahead. The consumer confidence in September registered a steep fall to 89.4 from 95.7 in July this year. The consumer confidence has touched the lowest level in at least the last six years. The street overlooked Union Minister of State for Finance and Corporate Affairs Anurag Thakur's statement that India will see heavy foreign investment in the next two years following the government's decision to cut corporate tax rates. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 141.33 points or 0.38% to 37,531.98, while the CNX Nifty was down by 48.35 points or 0.43% to 11,126.40.


The US markets ended deeply in red following reports that the Trump administration imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials over abuses of Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region. The new visa restrictions come just two days before the US and China are scheduled to resume high-level trade talks in Washington. Optimism about the trade talks had already waned after a report that China is subtly toning down expectations ahead of this week's high-level negotiations. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is leading China's delegation to Washington but will not carry the title of special envoy for President Xi Jinping, an early indication that Liu has not been given any particular instructions from China's leader. On the economic front, producer prices in the US unexpectedly decreased in the month of September, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand fell by 0.3 percent in September after inching up by 0.1 percent in August. The drop surprised participants, who had expected another 0.1 percent uptick. The unexpected decrease in producer prices came amid another steep drop in energy prices, which plunged by 2.5 percent in September, matching the nosedive seen in the previous month. However, excluding the continued plunge in energy prices as well as a modest increase in food prices, core producer prices also slid by 0.3 percent in September after climbing by 0.3 percent in August. Street had expected core prices to rise by 0.2 percent.


Crude oil futures ended marginally lower on Tuesday as fading optimism about US-China trade talks weighed on prospects for near term energy demand. Prospects for progress in US-China trade talks dimmed after US President Donald Trump said a quick deal was unlikely. Besides, in a monthly report issued, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its expectations for global oil demand growth and lowered 2020 price forecasts on West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices. The EIA also said it expects US winter heating bills to be lower than last year's. Meanwhile, traders were awaiting weekly crude inventories data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and US EIA for directional clues. Benchmark crude oil futures for November declined 12 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $52.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent lost 11 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $58.24 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Monday, on the back of consistent demand for the greenback from state-run banks and importers. The rupee's losses were caused by late hour sell-off in domestic equity market. Traders failed to take support with NITI Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the government expects economy to grow by 6.5% in the current fiscal and that all efforts were focused on bringing India to a higher growth trajectory. On the global front, dollar firmed on Monday, as fresh concerns over the trade war between the United States and China kept risk appetite subdued and trade-oriented currencies such as the Australian dollar under pressure. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.02, 14 paise weaker from its previous close of 70.88 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5130.04 crore against gross selling of Rs 6007.58 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1841.53 crore with gross sales of Rs 1069.01 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 18.37 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.77 crore.


The US markets declined on Tuesday as investor optimism around the upcoming US-China trade talks faded. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Wednesday as US visa restrictions on Chinese officials and the addition of more Chinese companies to a US trade blacklist weighed on investor sentiment. Indian markets before going for a holiday fell for the sixth straight session on Monday, dragged down by profit-booking in select IT, banking, pharma and FMCG stocks. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start tracking lackluster global cues amid Indian economy growth concerns. Markets remain closed on Tuesday on account of Dussehra. Traders will be concerned about the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Monetary Policy Report stating that the Indian economy which has largely been subdued in the past few quarters and signs of a slowdown have cropped up, is likely to face several more risks in the near term. There will be some cautiousness with report that India has moved down 10 places to rank 68th on an annual global competitiveness index, largely due to improvements witnessed by several other economies, while Singapore has replaced the US as the world's most competitive economy. India, which was ranked 58th in the annual Global Competitiveness Index compiled by Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF), is among the worst-performing BRICS nations along with Brazil (ranked even lower than India at 71st this year). Besides, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva warned of an economic slowdown in 2019 in 90% of the world. He added that in other emerging markets, such as India and Brazil, the slowdown is even more pronounced this year. Though, traders may take note of a report that Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Chairman Ajay Tyagi saw keen interest from foreign investors in emerging areas such as REITs and InvITs, which have a total asset size of more than $10 billion. Agriculture stocks will be in focus with a report that the overall food grain production is expected to increase marginally by 8.4 million tonne from the average output in the past five years at 140.57 million tonne in 2019 -20, with the best monsoons in 25 years. There will be some buzz in the telecom stocks with industry body COAI's statement that mobile tower installations have reached only 60% of intended target of 1,00,000 towers annually, mainly due to delay in permission from local authorities and other structural issues. There will be some reaction in coal stocks with ICRA's report that it expects the energy hungry nation's thermal coal imports to be more than 200 million tonnes in 2019/20, due to lower-than-expected production by state-run Coal India.


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  • Maruti Suzuki India has reported 17.49% fall in its production to 132,199 vehicles in September 2019, as compared to 160,219 vehicles in September 2018. 
  • Tech Mahindra has signed a MoU with Startup Bangladesh to foster the growth of digital startup ecosystem in Bangladesh, by providing guidance and mentoring to the budding entrepreneurs.   
  • Infosys has been selected as the main supplier to deliver Volvo Cars' digital transformation services for its Enterprise Digital Commercial Operations Applications and Products. 
  • SBI has launched a debit card EMI facility for its point-of-sale customers.
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