Indian equity benchmarks ended
flat on Friday ahead of key economic growth (GDP) data to be release later in
the day. The markets made an optimistic start, aided by economic policy
think-tank the National Council of Applied Economic Research's (NCAER) report
stating that Indian economy is projected to grow at 7-7.4 per cent in the
current fiscal. It added that the real agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) is
envisaged to grow at 3 per cent and real industry GVA at 7 per cent in 2018-19.
As per the report, the forecast for Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is
7.0-7.4 per cent. These forecasts at constant (2011-12) prices are based on
NCAER's annual GDP macro model. Sentiments were also upbeat during first half
of the session, with a private report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has
plans to unveil a long-awaited industrial policy soon to boost domestic
manufacturing and accelerate economic growth before federal polls next year.
However, the key indices turned volatile during the second half of the session,
amid private report stating that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is
expected to slow down to 7.4% in the July-September quarter of the current
financial year, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. Weak
opening in European markets also dented the domestic sentiments. But, at the
end of the day, the markets managed to keep their heads above neutral lines, as
some relief spread among the market participants with Chairman of the Economic
Advisory Council to Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Bibek Debroy's statement that the
government is looking to reform tax structures such that there is no deviation
from fiscal consolidation. Some support also came with a survey report that India's
small and medium businesses are using their advantages such as size, agility
and innovation as their top three strategies for driving revenue growth in
2018. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 23.89 points or 0.07% to 36,194.30, while
the CNX Nifty was up by 18.05 points or 0.17% to 10,876.75.
After a day of halt, the US
markets again gained the momentum and ended higher on Friday, with Dow Jones
adding around 200 points, on the outlook for trade ahead of a meeting between
the American and Chinese presidents. Sentiments also remained optimistic after
upbeat comments from a US trade official who suggested that some sort of a
trade deal is possible during a meeting between President Donald Trump and
Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Argentina. Investors are
hopeful that the US-China trade negotiations will be resolved in a similar way
as the US-China-Mexico pact, which was agreed to only after the president
issued a series of tough statements, and engaged in significant brinkmanship,
before finally compromising on a deal at the 11th hour. On the economic front,
MNI Indicators released a report unexpectedly showing a substantial
acceleration in the pace of growth in Chicago-area business activity in the
month of November. MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer jumped 8
points to 66.4 in November after falling to 58.4 in October, with a reading
above 50 indicating growth in business activity. The survey is often seen as a
bellwether for the broader US economy. Street had expected the index to edge
down to 58.0. The unexpected jump reflected increases across all five of the
barometer'a subcomponents, with resurgent orders, solid output and higher
unfinished orders the month's key drivers. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged
199.62 points or 0.79 percent to 25,538.46, S&P 500 jumped 22.41 points or
0.82 percent to 2,760.17 and Nasdaq was up by 57.45 points or 0.79 percent to
7,330.54.
Crude oil futures settled lower
on Friday as traders worried over a possible glut in global supplies. Traders also
remained cautious as demand growth worries resurfaced after China reported its
weakest factory growth in more than two years. However, oil prices pared most
of their early losses as speculation has grown over a potential production cut
by major oil producers, ahead of next week's final meeting of the year for the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). According to reports,
Russia, the second largest producer of crude oil, is likely to agree on a
production cut in the upcoming OPEC and non-OPEC producers meet. Benchmark
crude oil futures for January slipped 52 cents or 1 percent to settle $50.93 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude fell 80 cents
or 1.3 percent to settle at $58.71 a barrel on London's Intercontinental
Exchange.
Rising
for the fourth straight day, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on
Friday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Traders took encouragement
with economic policy think-tank the National Council of Applied Economic Research's
(NCAER) report stating that Indian economy is projected to grow at 7-7.4 per
cent in the current fiscal. It added that the real agriculture Gross Value
Added (GVA) is envisaged to grow at 3 per cent and real industry GVA at 7 per
cent in 2018-19. Traders also took note of Chairman of the Economic Advisory
Council to Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Bibek Debroy's statement that the government
is looking to reform tax structures such that there is no deviation from fiscal
consolidation. On the global front, dollar was a tad firmer on Friday as
markets nervously awaited the outcome of talks between the leaders of the
world's two biggest economies this weekend which could determine whether trade
tensions between them will escalate further. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.58,
27 paise stronger from its previous close of 69.85 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8917.48 crore against gross
selling of Rs 7722.15 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 1336.25 crore with gross sales of Rs 1864.57 crore. Besides, In the
hybrid segment, the gross selling was of Rs 0.65 crore against no buying.
The US markets ended higher on
Friday ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and
Chinese President Xi Jinping. Asian markets rallied in early deals on Monday
after US and Chinese leaders brokered a truce in their trade conflict, a relief
for the global economic outlook and a tonic for emerging markets. Indian
markets pared most of their early gains and ended marginally higher on Friday
as investors awaited Q2 GDP data and the outcome of the G20 summit over the
weekend for directional cues. Today, the markets are likely to make positive
start of the new month, following firm global cues bolstered by the report that
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have agreed to
a 90-day truce in the escalating trade war between the two countries. This is
the relief for the global growth outlook and a positive for emerging markets.
Traders will be getting some encouragement with a report that overseas
investors have pumped Rs 12,260 crore into the Indian capital markets in
November, making it the highest inflow in 10 months due to falling crude oil
prices and sharp rupee appreciation. Investors will be eyeing manufacturing PMI
data to be out later in the day. However, traders may be concerned about the
Central Statistics Office's (CSO) latest report showing that India's gross
domestic product (GDP) grew 7.1% in July-September, down from 8.2% in the
previous quarter, as consumption demand moderated and farm sector displayed
signs of weakness. The government attributed the slowdown in India's GDP growth
rate to a higher base effect, higher import bill on account of oil prices and
weakening of the rupee. Also, there may be negative reaction on the government
data showing that India reported a fiscal deficit of Rs 6.48 lakh crore during
April-October, which translates to 103.9% of its full-year target. There may be
some cautiousness with report that growth of eight infrastructure sectors
slowed down to 4.8% in October 2018, as compared to 5% in October 2017. Besides, the Goods and Services (GST)
collection in November dropped to Rs 97,637 crore, lower than Rs 1 lakh crore
collected previous month. There will be some buzz in the food processing sector
stocks with Union Cabinet minister for Food Processing Harsimrat Kaur Badal's statement
that the government has planned to set up a non-banking financial company
(NBFC) with an initial corpus of Rs 2,000 crore to fund food processing
industries as part of its effort to boost this sector and double farmers
income. There will be some reaction in steel sector stocks with a report that
India's finished steel exports fell by 23.4% to 0.596 million tonnes (MT) in
October 2018. The auto sector stocks will also be in action, reacting to their
monthly sales numbers.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
10,876.75
|
10,833.75
|
10,921.10
|
BSE Sensex
|
36,194.30
|
36,055.11
|
36,361.36
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
1,201.53
|
169.80
|
163.05
|
173.95
|
IOC
|
301.22
|
134.60
|
132.70
|
136.20
|
NTPC
|
248.67
|
140.30
|
137.70
|
142.75
|
ONGC
|
236.76
|
140.30
|
137.97
|
143.17
|
ICICI Bank
|
218.94
|
355.15
|
350.97
|
362.17
|
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