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Market Commentary 01 April 2020
Benchmarks to make cautious start amid weak global cues

 

Reversing previous session's heavy losses, Indian equity indices showcased courageous performance on Tuesday by gaining more than three and half percent in the session, tracking Asian peers, after upbeat factory data from China gave investors hope of a rebound in activity despite a spike in coronavirus cases in India. Key indices opened higher and stayed up-beat for whole trading session, as investors' sentiment got a boost from report that the government has put off implementation of the uniform stamp duty on transfer of shares, debentures, futures, options, currency and other capital market instruments to July 1, 2020. Some encouragement also came as in line with the Budget announcement, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opened certain specified categories of government securities (g-secs) for non-resident investors as part of an initiative to deepen the bond market. Buying got intensified in the late hour of trading, taking support from Fitch Solutions' statement that the RBI is likely to cut benchmark interest rate by another 100 bps in 2020-21 fiscal and continue to employ all policy tools at its disposal to support growth and financial stability to contain the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. Adding to the optimism, in a big relief to the agriculture sector, the government has extended the interest subsidy to all crop loans of up to Rs 3 lakh given by banks which are due or will be due between March 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020. Traders ignored domestic credit rating agency India Ratings (Ind-Ra) cuts its FY21 growth forecast to 3.6% amid coronavirus-related worries. It has assumed that a full or partial lockdown will continue till end of April and economic activities will be gradually restored only after May. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 1028.17 points or 3.62% to 29,468.49, while the CNX Nifty was up by 316.65 points or 3.82% to 8,597.75.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday on lingering concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said confirmed cases in his state jumped to more than 75,000 overnight. Besides, the Dow Jones Industrial Average secured its worst first-quarter performance ever, losing more than 23% of its value in the first three months of 2020. The 30-stock benchmark had its worst quarter since 1987. The S&P 500 fell 20% in the first quarter, its worst first quarter ever and its biggest quarterly loss since 2008. The Nasdaq fell more than 14% in the first quarter. On the economic data front, reflecting a deterioration in the short-term outlook, the Conference Board released a report showing a notable decrease in US consumer confidence in the month of March. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 120.0 in March from an upwardly revised 132.6 in February. The report said the present situation index dipped to 167.7 in March from 169.3 in February, reflecting a modestly less favorable assessment of current conditions. Meanwhile, a report released by MNI Indicators showed a continued contraction in Chicago-area business activity in the month of March. MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer fell to 47.8 in March from 49.0 in February, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction in regional business activity. The Chicago business barometer remained below 50 for the ninth straight month but showed a relatively modest decrease compared to economist estimates for a slump to 40.0. The modest decrease by the business barometer came as the production index returned to contraction territory after February's rise above the 50-mark and demand for new orders plunged by 7.9 percent. MNI Indicators said some firms reported a rise in orders due to stockpiling by US customers, while others noted a fall in new business due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday after President Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin about efforts to fight the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and stabilize the crude market. They both agreed on the importance of stability in the global energy markets and to work together through the G-20 to defeat the virus. However, oil prices dropped by more than half in March to suffer their largest quarterly percentage decline on record amid a demand slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic and a glut of supply thanks to a Russia-Saudi oil-price war. Crude oil futures for May gained 39 cents or 1.9 percent to settle at $20.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, May Brent crude fell 2 cents 0.09 percent to settle at $22.74 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee erased all its intraday gains and weakened a bit against dollar on Tuesday, due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Investors' sentiment remained fragile amid concerns over the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the domestic as well as global economy. Some concern also came as domestic credit rating agency India Ratings (Ind-Ra) cuts its FY21 growth forecast to 3.6% amid coronavirus-related worries. It has assumed that a full or partial lockdown will continue till end of April and economic activities will be gradually restored only after May. However, strong trend in the domestic equity market supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar climbed against a swathe of currencies on Tuesday amid fiscal year-end demand by Japanese firms while the Australian dollar slipped despite a Chinese survey showing manufacturing returned to growth in March. The last traded price of rupee was 75.60, 1 paisa weaker from its previous close of 75.59 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6405.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 10030.48 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 937.23 crore with gross sales of Rs 2737.79 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.21 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as the coronavirus pandemic battered huge swaths of the global economy. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday after results of a private survey showed China's manufacturing activity expanded slightly in March, compared with February's sharpest contraction on record. Indian markets ended the financial year 2019-20 on a positive note Tuesday bolstered by strong global cues. Today, the start of new fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21) is likely to be cautious following weakness in Asian peers, amid concerns related to coronavirus slowing economic growth. The total number of Covid-19 cases in India has reached 1397, including 1238 active cases, while 124 people have been cured/discharged. Besides, as many as 35 people have died because of Covid-19. There will be some cautiousness with report that the government has missed the collection target for the current financial year from CPSE disinvestment set in the Revised Estimates of Budget by about Rs 14,700 crore. Also, the government's fiscal deficit touched 135.2% of the full-year target at February-end mainly due to slower pace of revenue collections. Though, traders may get some respite later in the day with the government data showing that eight core sector industries recorded a growth of 5.5% in February, highest in 11-months, mainly due to healthy expansion in output of coal, refinery products and electricity. Traders may take note of report that the RBI is likely to cut benchmark interest rate by another 100 bps in 2020-21 fiscal and continue to employ all policy tools at its disposal to support growth and financial stability to contain the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. Besides, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the IMF can develop innovative and ingenious methods to meet COVID-19 related financing requirements given that policy space is severely constrained in most countries in these unprecedented circumstances. Meanwhile, the government has extended the existing foreign trade policy (2015-20) for one year till March 2021 amid coronavirus outbreak and the lockdown to contain the virus spread. Public sector banks' (PSB) will be in focus as the proposed PSB merger will come into effect from today. Auto sector stocks will also be in action, as automobile manufacturers will release their March auto sales figures today amid expectations of at least 50% drop in sales. 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8,597.75

8,411.07

8,731.37

BSE Sensex

29,468.49

28,833.61

29,937.13

                                                 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

595.44

196.85

190.43

200.88

ICICI Bank

462.80

323.75

314.88

333.73

Tata Motors

461.67

71.05

69.00

72.30

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

458.93

71.05

64.68

72.30

Vedanta

446.30

64.70

62.53

66.93

 

  • ITC has commenced production of Savlon Sanitisers at its perfume manufacturing facility in Himachal Pradesh to cater to the soaring demand due to the outbreak of the Corona virus pandemic. 
  • Bharti Airtel has extended the validity period of more than 8 crore pre-paid connections until April 17, 2020. 
  • Bajaj Finance is offering borrowers hassle-free access to funds through its instant personal loans. 
  • HCL Technologies is not expecting any significant impact on business in March quarter on account of the coronavirus outbreak, and that booking during the period has largely been on track with significant part of closures happening in January.
News Analysis