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NSE Intra-day chart (30 July 2018)
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Market Commentary 31 July 2018
Markets likely to make cautious start amid weak global cues

 

Extending their record-breaking spree for third straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended the session with a gain of around half a percent with Nifty conquering 11,300 mark, while Sensex ending just shy of 37,500 level. Markets soon after a positive start entered into red terrain as traders turned cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meet that begins on July 30. Sentiments remained dampened with a private report stating that the RBI's rate-setting panel will go for a status quo on key policy rates at the August monetary policy review. Sentiments also remained dampened with rating agency Moody's report stating that the recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cuts on 88 items will weigh on government's revenue collection and is credit negative as it will put pressure on efforts of fiscal consolidation. Investors took note of Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that the country needs to improve its human development index (HDI) to achieve a growth of around 10%. However, markets recouped losses and entered into green terrain, as traders took some encouragement with report that foreign investors have put in over Rs 1,800 crore in the Indian equity markets so far in July after pulling out massive funds in the preceding month. The latest inflow comes after such investors had taken out more than Rs 20,000 crore from the stock market during April-June. Markets extended gains to end near fresh all-time highs, as sentiments remained upbeat with Union Minister of State for Finance Shiv Pratap Shukla's statement that the government is making concerted efforts to double the farmers' income by 2022. He also said that the government has also taken concrete steps as per the recommendations of the Swaminathan committee reports. Meanwhile, the government removed restrictions for imports of urea for industrial, non-agriculture and technical grade. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 157.55 points or 0.42% to 37,494.40, while the CNX Nifty was up by 41.20 points or 0.37% to 11,319.55.

 

Extending their southward journey, the US markets ended lower for second straight session, as shares of technology companies tumbled, and investors braced for a busy week of corporate earnings and central-bank meetings. The Fed's strategy has been to raise rates gradually, signaling two additional rate rises before the end of the year. The central bank, which begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, is not expected to raise rates again until September. On economic front, the National Association of Realtors released a report showing a much bigger than expected rebound in pending home sales in the month of June. NAR said its pending home sales index climbed by 0.9 percent to 106.9 in June after falling by 0.5 percent to 105.9 in May. Traders had expected pending home sales to inch up by 0.1 percent. Despite the much bigger than expected increase, pending home sales in June were down by 2.5 percent compared to the same month a year ago, reflecting the sixth straight year-over-year decrease. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. Meanwhile, overall trading activity was somewhat subdued as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on August 1. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but traders are likely to keep a close eye on the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for rates. The S&P 500 shed 16.22 points or 0.58 percent to 2,802.60 and the Nasdaq declined 107.42 points or 1.39 percent to 7630.00 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 144.23 points or 0.57 percent to 25,306.83.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Monday, amid speculation of increased fuel demand in US, and on concerns over supply outlook due to imminent sanctions on Iran. Besides, the US benchmark settled above $70 a barrel for the first time in nearly three weeks. Concerns about the prospect of an oil supply shortage returned on Monday, as investors continued to weigh supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia and declining output from and Venezuela, Iran and Libya. Saudi Arabia announced it would suspend shipments of oil through the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait, after Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked a pair of oil tankers in the Red Sea. Benchmark crude oil futures for September rose $1.44 or 2.1 percent to settle at $70.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude was up by 68 cents or 0.9 percent at $74.97 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended almost flat against dollar on Monday, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting. The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on the key interest rate on Wednesday notwithstanding elevated oil prices and government's announcement to steeply hike minimum support price for kharif crops. Moreover, fresh month-end demand of the U.S. currency from importers also weighed on the domestic unit. However, a record breaking rally in domestic stocks helped rupee to recover from its initial losses. On the global front, U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of its major rivals on Monday, as traders prepared for a week filled with monetary policy updates from Japan, the U.S. and the U.K. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.67, 1 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.66 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4911.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 4351.10 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 312.75 crore with gross sales of Rs 499.72 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.92 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday, as investors braced for a busy week of corporate earnings and central-bank meetings. Asian markets were trading in red in early deals on Tuesday, taking cues from the rout in global technology shares, while the yen edged higher ahead of the Bank of Japan's rate review, at which it could flag a shift away from its massive monetary stimulus. Indian equity markets, continuing their record-breaching spree, ended higher on Monday, with Sensex and Nifty ending at record closing high, on the back of healthy quarterly earnings. Today, markets are likely to make a cautious start, amid weak global cues. Investors will be eyeing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting to decide on the key interest rate amid elevated oil prices and inflation hovering around 5%. There will be some cautiousness with RBI's data showing that India Inc raised $2.71 billion through external commercial borrowing (ECB) and rupee-denominated bonds (RDBs) in June 2018, up by 66.3% over the same month last year. As per the data, Indian companies had raised $1.63 billion from overseas sources in June 2017. Traders will also be reacting to a private report that corporate India's business optimism index for the July-September quarter registered an 11.7% increase over last year, while on a quarter-on-quarter basis it has declined. However, traders may get some support later in the day, with Crisil's report that India is much better placed than many other emerging market peers or compared to its own situation in 2013 during the taper tantrum, to tackle risks arising out of asymmetry in monetary policy of advanced economies, the rise in crude prices and the escalation of trade war tension. Meanwhile, Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu has said that the government is taking legislative as well as administrative measures for an integrated strategy to reduce logistics related hurdles for boosting domestic and global trade. There will be buzz in markets, as around 108 companies will declare results for June quarter which includes Ajanta Pharma, Bank of India, Bharat Electronics, Castrol India, Dabur India, Mahanagar Gas, Tata Motors, Vedanta, and V-Guard.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,319.55

11,277.97

11,344.62

BSE Sensex

37,494.40

37,346.73

37,587.78

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

561.19

307.35

298.25

312.45

SBI

409.50

297.40

291.22

301.57

ITC

170.81

301.05

299.50

303.10

Reliance Industries

138.72

1,151.40

1,133.83

1,163.13

Axis Bank

129.50

569.65

556.57

576.97

 

  • Infosys will expand its presence in Noida and Uttar Pradesh with the commencement of work on its new software development center. 
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is recalling over 2500 bottles of Metformin hydrochloride extended release tablets from Arizona in the United States. 
  • NTPC has received an approval for raising funds upto Rs 12,000 crore through issuance of secured/ unsecured, redeemable, taxable/ tax-free, cumulative/ non-cumulative, NCDs. 
  • HDFC has reported 53.74% rise in its net profit at Rs 2,190.00 crore for Q1FY19 as compared to Rs 1,424.47 crore for Q1FY18.
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