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NSE Intra-day chart (28 January 2016)
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Market Commentary 29 January 2016
Markets to make a soft-to-flat start of the new series


Benchmark equity indices ended in the negative terrain on Thursday's derivatives' expiry session, on the back of a sudden bout of selling in late trades. Investors remained on the sidelines and refrained from any buying activity on the day of the expiry of January contracts. Further, traders remained cautious expecting the RBI might leave its key interest rate steady at 6.75 percent next week, given that the US Fed maintained its status quo on key lending rates. During its FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meet, the US Fed gave a bearish outlook on global markets and cautioned against future financial shocks. The upward movement was also restricted by low volumes and continuous selling by foreign investors. Depreciation in Indian rupee too dampened sentiments. Extending losses for the third session the rupee depreciated by 4 paise to 68.07 against the greenback following month-end demand from importers and banks. On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly in green on Thursday, while the European markets showed a choppy trade. Back home, the benchmark got off to a somber opening, as participants remained cautious,  besides, overnight weakness in the US equities and a mixed trend in other Asian peers after the US Federal Reserve kept the monetary policy unchanged citing weak economic growth, also dented the sentiment. Thereafter, the indices kept oscillating in a narrow range near neutral line throughout the morning trade. The bourses capitalized the momentum and spurted in afternoon trades on the back of broad based bottom fishing in undervalued stocks. But some final hour profit booking followed by mild short covering ensured that the key gauges extend the consolidation period for third straight session. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 22.82 points or 0.09% to 24469.57, while the CNX Nifty ended down by 13.10 points or 0.18% to 7,424.65.

 

The US markets closed higher on Thursday, boosted by a jump in oil prices along with some good earnings. The crude oil futures leapt more than 7% following reports that Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would discuss a potential output cut. On the economy front, initial jobless claims fell last week after touching a seven-month high earlier in January, offering fresh evidence the labor market is still doing pretty well despite a slower US economy. Initial jobless claims declined by a seasonally adjusted 16,000 to 278,000 in the seven days stretching from January 17 to January 23. The four-week average of initial claims also tacked lower, down 2,250 to 283,000. New claims remain at very low levels, reflecting a surge in job creation over the past several years. On the other hand, pending home sales eked out a small gain in December, signaling moderate home-buying activity ahead. The National Association of Realtors' monthly index rose to 106.8 from a downwardly-revised 106.7 in November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 125.18 points or 0.79 percent to 16,069.64, the Nasdaq was up 38.51 points or 0.86 percent to 4,506.68 while the S&P 500 gained 10.41 points or 0.55 percent to 1,893.36. 

 

Crude oil futures surged to fresh three-week highs on Thursday, on signs that Russia and OPEC are going to cut supplies. Though, they pared some gains after a host of representatives from the cartel refuted speculation of any imminent cuts. Earlier there were reports that OPEC could meet with members outside the cartel next month to address potential production cuts in order to reduce the excessive supply glut on global energy markets. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak's claimed that Saudi Arabia has proposed cutting oil production by up to 5 percent. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery surged by $0.95 or 2.91 percent to $33.25 a barrel after trading in a range of $31.75 and $34.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for April delivery closed at $34.87, up $0.92 or 2.74 percent on the ICE.

 

Extending losses for the third session, Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Thursday due to sustained demand for the US currency from importers and banks amid strengthening of American currency overseas. Besides, weakness in domestic equity market kept pressure on the rupee. Investors remained cautious expecting that the RBI might leave its key interest rate steady at 6.75 percent next week, given that the US Fed maintained its status quo on key lending rates. Investors overlooked the statement of S Iswaran, Minister of Trade and Industry, Singapore, that India is projected to be the world's fastest growing major economy this year. On the global front, dollar was almost unchanged against the yen on Thursday, with many investors unwilling to make major moves ahead of a closely-watched policy decision by the Bank of Japan due Friday. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.22, 17 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.05 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4355.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 4525.11 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 593.29 crore with gross sales of Rs 548.84 crore.     

 

The US markets managed a positive close of volatile last session; with the major averages partly offsetting the steep drop seen in the previous session. The gains were partially in reaction to increase in crude prices and latest earnings news from some big-name companies. The Asian markets have made a mixed start, though some indices are gaining on crude rally, the Japanese market was in red, as the yen strengthened before a policy update from the Bank of Japan. The Indian markets snapped the January F&O series on a negative note, the trade remained choppy and traders avoided making any major fresh bets on global concerns, while some earnings disappointments too weighed on the sentiments. Today, the start of the new series is likely to be mildly in red on mixed global cues, traders will be cautious with RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan raising doubts over the new GDP growth rate methodology, stating that there is a need for better computation of numbers so as to avoid overlaps and capture the net gains to the economy. He said that there are problems with the way we count GDP which is why we need to be careful sometimes just talking about growth. However, there will be some support with Planning Commission's former deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia stating that Indian economy, which expanded at 7.7 percent between 2003 and 2014 has the potential to clock 8 percent growth in the near future. The export oriented stocks will be in action, as the Commerce Ministry in order to boost waning exports has suggested that exporters be exempted from payment of service tax in the upcoming Budget. Infra stocks will continue to remain in action with the announcement of the name of 20 smart cities.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7424.65

7399.88

7459.13

BSE Sensex

24469.57

24384.33

24571.01

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Vedanta

326.07

67.30

64.77

68.82

ICICI Bank

220.53

233.20

229.78

238.08

SBI

202.41

185.25

183.20

186.60

Tata Motors

131.54

334.20

330.53

339.63

Power Grid

127.09

143.70

141.30

145.30

 

  • Infosys has made an investment of $4 million in Waterline Data Science, a leading provider of data discovery and data governance software.
  • ICICI Bank has opened its new branch at Urban Estate Market, Phase-2 in Jalandhar, Punjab.
  • HDFC has reported 6.67% rise in its net profit at Rs 1520.51 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2015 as compared to Rs 1425.49 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Axis Bank has entered into tie-up with Apollo Munich whereby the health insurance company will be offering bank customers customized insurance policies.
  • Bharti Airtel posted 22% decline in its net income at Rs 1,117 crore for the third quarter ended December 2015 as against Rs 1,436 crore in the same quarter previous year.
News Analysis