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NSE Intra-day chart (27 June 2016)
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Market Commentary 28 June 2016
Markets to remain cautious amid mixed global cues

 

Indian stock markets commenced the new week on a lackadaisical note as the benchmark equity indices hardly budged from their previous closing levels on Monday.  The key indices oscillated in an extremely tight range through the session as market participants remained on the sidelines lacking conviction amid the persistent worries over global financial stability. While the so-called Brexit was discussed intensely across the world in the run up to the poll, the actual decision by Britain to leave came as a surprise. Global markets were caught off guard and plummeted Friday. However, the sentiments took support from positive developments of monsoon that bounced back emphatically and is on track for a strong run in the weeks ahead.  Increased rainfall has already accelerated crop planting, which expanded 48% to 125 lakh hectare in the past week. Planting of rice more than doubled in a week while area under pulses has trebled, signaling higher output of lentils, which should ease food inflation. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the impact of the Brexit vote on India would not be significant, as the underlying fundamentals of the economy were robust. Jaitley however, noted that Indian companies with significant operations in the UK would have to tailor their businesses accordingly to deal with the fallout. Meanwhile, sharp selling witnessed in IT exporters on concerns over demand uncertainty from Europe and volatility in the British pound post the Brexit. However, FMCG shares gained on hopes of higher rural volume growth after the IMD said that the monsoon rains will retreat later than normal. On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed on Monday, while European stock markets fell on Monday. Back home, the local benchmark indices opened on a somber note, as investors were largely influenced by the daunting sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 5.25 points or 0.02% to 26402.96, while the CNX Nifty rose 6.10 points or 0.08% to 8,094.70.

 

The US markets posted a sharp loss on Monday, as investors continued to dump assets perceived as risky in the wake of the UK's vote last week to leave the European Union. The selloff follows Friday's carnage, when the market saw its sharpest drop since last August. Amid the global flight to quality, so-called risk assets like European equities and oil got hammered, while the pound GBP slid to a 31-year low. On the domestic economy front, the US trade gap in goods widened in May. The advanced trade gap widened to a seasonally adjusted $60.59 billion from $57.53 billion. That's wider than the $59.7 billion gap estimated. Imports grew while exports fell slightly. Imports rose to $179.63 billion from $176.82 billion, while exports fell to $119.04 billion from $119.29 billion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 260.51 points or 1.50 percent to 17,140.24, Nasdaq lost 113.54 points or 2.41 percent to 4,594.44, while S&P 500 dropped 36.87 points or 1.81 percent to 2,000.54.

 

Crude oil futures plunged to near its six weeks low on Monday, with Britain's exit playing the spoilsport. There were talks of break-up leading to a recession for the fragile economies of the EU and UK. Broad strength in dollar weighed on the crude prices, dollar index rallied by more than 1% to hit a fresh three-month high. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery declined by $1.23 or 2.58 percent to $46.41 a barrel after trading in a range of $45.88 and $47.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for September delivery closed at $47.85, down $1.24 or 2.43 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally stronger against dollar on Monday on increased selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. The domestic currency was also supported by the gains in equity markets, which despite some volatility managed a positive close. However, dollar's gains against a basket of major currencies overseas capped the rise. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the impact of the Brexit vote on India would not be significant, as the underlying fundamentals of the economy were robust. On the global front, euro was weak on Monday, as investors remained on sideline in the wake of U.K.'s unexpected vote to leave the European Union. Finally, the rupee ended 67.94, 2 paise stronger from its previous close a t 67.96 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity, the gross buying was of Rs 3907.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 4484.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 299.66 crore with gross sales of Rs 1412.97 crore.             

 

The US markets slumped in the last session, extending their sell-off reacting to the Brexit referendum and the major averages fell to their lowest closing levels in well over three months. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start tailing the weakness in overnight US markets, though some indices in the region are recovering on prospect of stimulus packages in Japan and South Korea. The Indian markets made a choppy start of the F&O expiry and after much of dilly-dallying ended flat with FIIs, domestic investors and high networth clients lapping up the mid-cap and small cap stocks in last session. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious as the global cues are still somber, though some recovery can be seen once after stabilization, traders will be getting some support with the continuous fall in international crude oil prices. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will meet industry associations to clear doubts about the four-month window provided to holders of undeclared wealth to come clean. There will be buzz in the markets, as the government has kicked off the process of setting up a new monetary policy committee after it notified key amendments to a law governing the Reserve Bank of India. The will be some action in the pharma stocks, as the government has reduced prices of 42 essential medicines used in treatment of various ailments including tuberculosis, cancer, cardiac diseases, asthma, epilepsy, rheumatoid arthritis and depression have been capped by up to 15 percent.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8094.70

8049.15

8130.45

BSE Sensex

26402.96

26279.28

26510.07

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

290.22

217.15

212.18

220.48

Hindalco

136.03

119.80

116.87

121.77

Tata Motors

124.5

448.95

442.62

456.27

ICICI Bank

119.75

232.70

229.87

234.97

Bank of Baroda

83.95

151.85

147.77

154.27

 

  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm L&T Constructions has bagged orders worth Rs 2416 crore across various business segments in the month of June 2016.
  • Asian Paints has decided to invest around Rs 4,000 crore to set up two manufacturing units - one each in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
  • Axis Bank is planning to raise Rs 35000 crore through multiple instruments including green bonds and from overseas markets.
  • In a bid to augment its long-term capital resources, HDFC is planning to raise Rs 1,035 crore through issuance of debentures on a private placement basis.
  • ICICI Bank in association with Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, has unveiled 'Smart City Pre-paid Card' to pay for an array of facilities including taxes, bills, entry fee to common city areas and at retail outlets by using a single pre-paid card.
News Analysis