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Market Commentary 26 February 2016
Markets to see some recovery on supportive global cues


Thursday's session saw Indian benchmark indices complete a hat-trick of disappointing performances and reaching the finishing line only after collapsing by around half a percent to their fresh 52 weeks low. Sentiments remained down-beat as International Monetary Fund warned that the world economy is highly vulnerable and called for new mechanisms to protect the most vulnerable countries. The global crisis raised concern that world growth had slowed and could be derailed by market turbulence, the oil price crash and geopolitical conflicts. On the domestic front, sentiments got undermined after the railway budget failed to announce big ticket capital expenditure projects, so as to meet the government's fiscal deficit targets.  Also, Railway Minister proposed increasing the capital outlay for the Railways, the world's fourth-largest rail network, by 21 per cent to Rs. 1.21 lakh crore.  Depreciation in Indian rupee also weighed on investor sentiment. The rupee weakened by 18 paise to trade at 68.74 against the US dollar at the time of equity markets closing as compared to 68.56 in previous session. Market participants remained cautious with a private survey stating that optimism about the overall state of the economy came down in 2015, with households listing unemployment, corruption and rising inflation as major areas of concern. However, losses remained capped on the report that business sentiment among Indian companies rose for the second consecutive month in February, as companies increased production on the back of rising orders. The increase in sentiment was solely led by manufacturing firms where confidence was at a seven-month high. On the global front, Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Thursday, while European stocks climbed in early deals. Back home, benchmark got off to a soft start as the indices showed signs of consolidation in early trade, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Railway Budget. Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 112.93 points or 0.49% to 22976.00, while the CNX Nifty dropped 48.10 points or 0.69% to 6,970.60. 

 

The US markets closed higher on Thursday, as a rebound in oil prices boosted the main benchmarks, which had been struggling to hold on to small gains throughout the session. Oil prices erased steep losses to end sharply higher, after news reported that Venezuela's oil minister announced his country would meet with fellow oil producers next month in an effort to stabilize prices. On the economy front, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week rose by 10,000 to 272,000, but remained nearly a post-recession low. Yet the average of new claims over the past four weeks fell by 1,250 to 272,000 to mark the lowest level since early December. Meanwhile, US orders for long-lasting or durable goods jumped 4.9% in January to mark the biggest gain in 10 months, but underlying business investment remained soft. The spike in orders in January follows a revised 4.6% drop in December, so it's far from clear if the upswing in early 2016 is more than just a temporary blip. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 212.30 points or 1.29 percent to 16,697.29 the Nasdaq was up 39.60 points or 0.87 percent to 4,582.21 while, the S&P 500 gained 21.90 points or 1.13 percent to 1,951.70.   

 

Crude oil futures bounced back and made strong gains on Thursday, amid renewed efforts by Russia to complete a pact with three OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia. Russia energy minister Alexander Novak said that prices will remain persistently low unless the four nations involved in last week's meetings in Qatar can finalize the so-called Doha Agreement over the next several days. There were reports that Venezuela, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are expected to meet in the coming days. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery gained $0.97 or 3.02 percent to $33.12 a barrel after trading in a range of $31.09 and $33.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for April delivery closed at $35.30, up $0.90 or 2.59 percent on the ICE.

 

Snapping its two-day gaining streak Indian rupee depreciated against dollar on Thursday due to month end demand for American currency from banks and importers. Besides, losses in local equity market also hit the rupee sentiment. Further, investors remained worried over the government's fiscal consolidation plan. Sentiments remained down beat with the announcement of  21 per cent hike in capital spending for the Railway Budget from a year ago and on talk about a meeting between the finance ministry and analysts and media this week-end. On the global front, dollar was flat, as investors were looking to Federal Reserve speakers later in the day for fresh direction on the U.S. rates outlook. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.72, 16 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.56 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2972.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 3493.44 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 271.39 crore with gross sales of Rs 1575.62 crore.        

 

The US markets rallied in last session, supported by substantial rebound by the price of crude oil. Also, there was a report from Commerce Department showing a much bigger than expected rebound in durable goods orders in the month of January that lifted the mood of investors. The Asian markets have made an all green start with major averages on track for their second straight weekly gain, amid meeting of the Group of 20 finance chiefs discusses coordination of stimulus efforts. The Indian markets slumped to their 52 week low in the last session, disappointed by lack of any big-bang reform from the railway budget. Today, the start is likely to see some recovery tailing the positive global cues, however all eyes will be on another important event of the release of Economic Survey report in the parliament. Chief Economic Advisor, Arvind Subramanian, will present his second Economic Survey. It's the economic report card for the financial year that's just about to conclude and projections for the ensuing fiscal year. The report will shed light on the investment climate, stalled projects, debt overhang and other factors that have been acting as deterrents to growth. The railways stocks will again be in focus after showing a disappointing performance on the budget day. Meanwhile, Union Railways Minister Suresh Prabhu has reiterated that aspirations, needs and concerns of common man were kept in mind while framing this years' Budget. He added that the Budget aims at modernising, improving safety, speed, and revenue resources of the railways. The banking stocks too will be in action, with a Parliamentary panel expressing its unhappiness with handling of bad loans by RBI and banks, saying that high NPAs raise serious questions about credibility of the mechanism to deal with the issue. Also, the RBI has revised SDR norms, asking banks to have higher provisions of 15%.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

6970.60

6943.27

7016.07

BSE Sensex

22976.00

22901.75

23096.61

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

348.55

183.00

180.03

187.48

NTPC

337.52

118.50

117.22

119.47

SBI

227.13

151.80

149.17

156.27

Coal India

146.89

299.40

293.77

306.47

Bank of Baroda

144.21

130.10

127.62

134.22

 

  • L&T's subsidiary L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering has inked pact with McDermott International focused on subsea projects in deepwater segment emerging on the east coast of India.
  • TCS has entered into strategic partnership with Element Financial Corporation to help the company significantly evolve its fleet management technology platform and user experience.
  • Lupin is planning to set up a new plant in Japan and invest Rs 100 crore in a manufacturing facility in India to cater to the Japanese market.
  • NTPC has raised Rs 655 crore via private placement of secured Non-Convertible Debentures at a coupon of 8.33% per annum with a 5 year door-to-door maturity on February 24, 2016.
  • Tata Power has received approval from Regional Empowered Committee of the Union Environment Ministry for setting up of a 52.50 MW wind power project in Koppal district, Karnataka.
News Analysis