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NSE Intra-day chart (17 June 2016)
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Market Commentary 20 June 2016
Soft start on cards in reaction to Rajan's decision

 

A session after displaying a distressing performance, Indian benchmark indices managed a modestly positive close on Friday, as investors accumulated quality stocks at attractive levels. Sentiments got a boost after India's current account deficit (CAD) declined sharply to $0.3 billion (0.1% of Gross Domestic Product) in the fourth quarter of ended March 2016 (FY16) from $ 7.1 billion (1.3%), in third quarter ended December 2015, on account of lower trade gap.  Besides, firm global cues coupled with the appreciation in rupee value against the dollar added to the optimistic sentiments. Some support also came with Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das' statement that FDI inflows in the current fiscal will top 15.3 per cent rise in 2015-16 on the back of reforms and liberalisation of FDI norms. However, investors remained concern with the report that India's monsoon deficit has widened to 25% since the beginning of this month as rainfall in the past day was less than half of the normal level increasing the anxiety of farmers, although forecasters say that heavy showers are just a few days away. Meanwhile, sugar stocks declined after the government imposed 20% customs duty on sugar exports to boost domestic supply and ensure that traders don't ship out sugar to take advantage of favourable international markets. On the other hand, Real estate stocks surged ahead of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) board meeting on Friday to make further relaxations to rules governing real estate investment trusts (Reits). On the global front, Asian markets bounced back on Friday, as US consumer price data helped calm investor sentiment, however European markets, after getting positive start, slipped below neutral line in early deals. Back home, the markets regained its momentum in the final hour of trade and finished the day gaining over quarter a percent. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 100.45 points or 0.38% to 26625.91, while the CNX Nifty rose 29.45 points or 0.36% to 8170.20.

 

The US markets closed lower on Friday, posting weekly losses, as investors continued to fret over the possibility that the UK may leave the European Union on top of lingering concerns about the Federal Reserve's reluctance to raise interest rates. The long-anticipated 'Brexit' referendum on the UK's membership in the European Union is set for Thursday. On the domestic economy front, housing starts dipped in May but held near recent highs, a sign residential construction may have settled into a groove after post-recession fits and starts. Starts fell 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.16 million. Permits, which foreshadow future starts, rose 0.7% to a 1.14 million rate. The decline in starts may have been less severe than expected in part because April's increase, previously reported as 6.6%, was revised down slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 57.94 points or 0.33 percent to 17,675.16, Nasdaq dropped 44.58 points or 0.92 percent to 4,800.34, while S&P 500 lost 6.77 points or 0.33 percent to 2,071.22.

 

Crude oil futures bounced back on Friday, halting their six days losing streak. Traders got some support with the dollar weakness against a basket of major currencies, while the fear of Brexit receded. Traders even shrugged oil services firm Baker Hughes' weekly rig count report stating that US oil rigs last week rose by nine to 337 for the week ending on June 10. It marked the third straight of weekly increases, the longest since last August.  Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery inched up by $1.77 or 3.83 percent to $47.98 a barrel after trading in a range of $45.84 and $48.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for August delivery closed at $49.19, up $2.00 or 4.24 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended substantially stronger against dollar on Friday on heavy selling of the American currency by exporters and bankers on the back of lower trade deficit in the last fiscal. Investors got support with the report that India's current account deficit narrowed sharply to $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY 2015-16 ended March 31, 2016 from the $ 7.1 billion or 1.3 percent in the third quarter, mainly on account of lower trade deficit. Besides, weakness of the dollar against some other currencies overseas and gains in domestic equity market supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar slipped lower against the euro and held steady against the yen on Friday, as downbeat U.S. data, as well as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's decision to leave monetary policies unchanged continued to weigh on the greenback. Finally, the rupee ended 67.08, 20 paise stronger from its previous close at 67.28 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity, the gross buying was of Rs 3077.58 crore against gross selling of Rs 3185.79 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 894.67 crore with gross sales of Rs 557.23 crore.             

 

The US markets made a negative close in last session as traders remained concerned about the referendum on whether Britain will remain in the European Union. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start, as the crude strengthened for the second day. The gainers were led by the Japanese market which was up by over two percent as the yen fell for the first time in seven days. The Indian markets despite volatility had managed a positive close in last session. Today, the start of the crucial week is going to be bit somber despite positive regional cues, as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has decided not to go for a second term and bow out in September. There will be knee-jerk reaction in the markets in early deals and the rupee movement will be closely watched, as it is the most to get impacted. However, traders will be getting some support with the report that quick progress of monsoon in last one-two days has taken the crucial weather system to many new regions and is expected to intensify in the days ahead. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry expects the country's growth rate to climb to 8 percent in the current financial year on the back of above normal monsoon. The infra sector stocks will be in action, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set targets for key ministries that have to be delivered by end of the financial year to effect visible change on ground. There will be some buzz in the power PSUs, as Power, Coal, New and Renewable Energy Minister Piyush Goyal has said that his ministry will not reduce the government's stake in power sector PSUs below 51 per cent and has said that management and control of the PSUs should remain with the government.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8170.20

8138.92

8198.37

BSE Sensex

26625.91

26532.76

26724.80

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

264.87

213.45

210.87

216.77

ICICI Bank

137.74

238.45

235.00

242.05

Hindalco

91.15

118.80

117.75

120.05

Tata Motors

78.37

464.40

459.22

467.67

Axis Bank

72.01

526.90

523.10

532.30

  • HCL Technologies has signed a strategic IT partnership contract with LeasePlan, a global fleet management and driver mobility company of Dutch origin.
  • Housing Development Finance Corporation is planning to raise Rs 500 crore by issuing secured redeemable non-convertible debentures through private placement.
  • Housing Development Finance Corporation is planning to raise Rs 500 crore by issuing secured redeemable non-convertible debentures through private placement.
  • Larsen & Toubro's wholly owned subsidiary - L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering, has won orders worth Rs 1170 crore across its various business segments.
  • Tata Motors has partnered with Vetri Motors to open a new modern 4000 square meter 3S facility in Madurai, which will provide customers with a complete experience of sales, service and spares, all under one roof.
News Analysis