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NSE Intra-day chart (17 October 2017)
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Market Commentary 18 October 2017
Markets to remain cautious on mixed global cues


Indian equity benchmarks witnessed consolidation with frontline gauges ending almost unchanged on Tuesday, as traders opted to book some of their profit after three days of continuous rally. Markets traded choppy through the session with frontline gauges swinging between green and red for most part of the day, as sentiments remained downbeat on geopolitical tension after North Korea's deputy U.N. ambassador warned a nuclear war may break out any moment. Traders also remained on sidelines ahead of second quarter results from Wipro and Axis Bank, slated to be released later in the day.  However, traders took some solace with statement of NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar, who has pitched for fiscal stimulus to boost growth with a rider that additional expenditure should be used only for increasing productivity and capital expenditure. He said that faced with slowing economic growth, the industry has been clamouring for a stimulus package from the government. Some comfort also came with the International Monetary Fund suggesting India to consider setting up an independent fiscal council, saying this institution has contributed to better outcomes in the countries where it has been introduced. Some support also came with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that getting investment in the infrastructure sector and bankruptcy reforms are the two issues which are on the top of the government's agenda. Besides, the private report stating that India's foreign reserves, which touched a record $ 402.5 billion in September, are high enough to cushion the country against the external vulnerabilities, also helped the indices to trade in green territory. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 24.48 points or 0.08% to 32,609.16, while the CNX Nifty was up by 3.60 points or 0.04% to 10,234.45.

 

The US markets closed mostly higher on Tuesday, with both the Dow and the S&P 500 finishing at records as a round of positive earnings reports from major companies boosted positive sentiment and extended the recent uptrend. Bank earnings and results from some of the biggest health-care companies were key drivers throughout the session. As third-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, investors will be focused on those results to gauge whether valuation for stock benchmarks, repeatedly registering all-time highs in 2017, is supported. On the economy front, industrial production in the US rebounded in September after two straight declines, rising 0.3% in September. Capacity utilization rose to 76% from 75.8% but remained below summer levels. Production for July, meanwhile, was revised to show a small decline instead of a 0.4% gain. The decline in August lowered to 0.7% from 0.9%. Most industries boosted output in September, led by construction and utilities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40.48 points or 0.18 percent to 22,997.44, the S&P 500 edged higher by 1.72 points or 0.07 percent to 2,559.36, while the Nasdaq lost 0.35 points or 0.01 percent to 6,623.66.

 

Crude oil futures made a mostly flat closing with a positive bias on Tuesday, ahead of inventory Data. On the one hand while expectations of a ramp up in US production weighed on sentiment. On the other easing conflict in Northern Iraq between Iraqi and Kurdish forces lessened concerns over potential supply disruptions in the region. Meanwhile, a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration released Monday showed expectations for a rise of 81,000 barrels a day to 6.12 million barrels a day in shale oil production from seven key U.S. shale regions in November. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended higher by $0.01 at $51.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery added 0.20 cents to $58.03 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee, snapping six successive days of gains, depreciated against dollar on Tuesday due to continued bouts of dollar demand from banks and importers. Traders failed to get relief with the report that the International Monetary Fund suggested India to consider setting up an independent fiscal council, saying this institution has contributed to better outcomes in the countries where it has been introduced. The dollar's gains against some other currencies overseas coupled with lackluster trade in the equity markets also weighed negatively on the market. On the global front, dollar strengthened to a one-week high against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, supported by a rise in Treasury yields following a report US President Donald Trump was edging towards choosing a hawk as the next head of the Federal Reserve. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.03, 31 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.72 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5485.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 5311.44 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1078.00 crore with gross sales of Rs 204.93 crore.

 

The US markets moved further high in the last session in a choppy day of trade and Dow and the S&P 500 reached new record closing highs. Though, traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves, as the earnings season is only just beginning to pick up steam. The Asian markets have made a mixed start and there was some cautiousness in the region as China's President Xi Jinping spoke at the opening of the Communist Party Congress, with investors assessing the magnitude of recent gains in global equities. The Indian markets consolidated in the last session and traders took some profit off the table in a choppy day of trade. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious on sluggish global cues and traders will be reacting to mixed quarterly results of Wipro and Axis Bank, also as the markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday for Diwali, with Thursday just having one hour of Muhurat trading. Traders will be getting some encouragement with statement from statement of Surjit Bhalla, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council that the government is likely to stick to its fiscal deficit target of 3.2 per cent of GDP, and may accelerate sales of government stakes in lenders and other companies as part of an effort to recapitalise banks. There will be some buzz in the export oriented stocks, as the Centre is considering an incentive package of over Rs16,000 crore to boost exports in view of sluggish domestic demand and competition in export markets. Steel stocks too may see some action as the Ministry of Finance imposed an anti-dumping duty on steel to cover colour-coated or pre-painted flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel. There will be some buzz from the primary markets too, as the non-banking financial company MAS Financial Services will make stock market debut today. The Rs 460 crore initial public offer (IPO) was oversubscribed 128 times.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10234.45

10214.08

10253.33

BSE Sensex

32609.16

32543.98

32687.10

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

NTPC

196.96

175.90

174.27

177.02

Bharti Airtel

169.83

465.95

457.58

471.83

SBI

135.05

251.15

249.63

253.68

ITC

106.29

267.25

265.90

268.65

Hindalco

99.30

276.50

271.37

279.77

  • Tata Motors has commenced a pilot-run of its 9-meter electric bus at Guwahati in state of Assam.
  • Hindalco Industries is planning to expand capacity of its downstream mill at Hirakud in western Odisha to 3,75,000 tonnes from 1,35,000 tonnes per annum.
  • M&M has launched a programme 'Prerna' in order to empower women working in the agriculture sector by promoting efficient and ergonomic farm tools and equipment.
  • Maruti Suzuki's all-new Dzire has achieved the fastest 1-lakh sales mark, a distinctive feat in the Indian automobile industry.
News Analysis