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Market Commentary 16 March 2020
Markets to get negative start amid weakness in Asian peers

 

Fabulous recovery staged over the Dalal Street on Friday's trading session, with Sensex and Nifty ending higher by around 4%. Earlier in the day, trading on BSE and NSE was halted for 45 minutes after benchmark index Nifty fell 10% at the start of the day. But, after resumption of trading, Indian markets regained some poise. Traders took support with the government data report showing that retail inflation dropped for the first time after six months in February, easing to 6.58% as prices of vegetables and other kitchen items cooled. Also, India's industrial output grew 2% in January against a contraction of 0.3% in December. Benchmarks entered in green terrain during afternoon session. Traders got relief, as the market regulator said that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and stock exchanges have a robust risk management framework in place which automatically gets triggered in response to movements in the indices. It also said that the framework tracks movements in BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty as well as individual stocks both in cash and derivatives market. Besides, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showed that India's current account deficit narrowed sharply to $1.4 billion or 0.2% of GDP in the December quarter. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1325.34 points or 4.04% to 34103.48, while the CNX Nifty was up by 365.05 points or 3.81% to 9955.20.

 

The US markets ended higher with booking their biggest daily gains since October 28, 2008 on Friday after President Donald Trump declared the coronavirus outbreak a national emergency. The declaration by Trump would free up as much as $50 billion in additional funding to combat the outbreak and allow officials to waive certain regulations to accelerate testing and care for coronavirus patients. Trump said that he expects the US to have 1.4 million coronavirus test kits available within a week and a total of 5 million kits within the next month. The president said he is also working with private sector companies to develop drive thru testing facilities across the country. However, Trump said he does not want everybody running out and taking the test, saying only people with certain symptoms should be tested. Besides, adding to the positive sentiment, a coronavirus test developed by Swiss drug giant Roche has been granted emergency use authorization by the FDA. The FDA said this is the first commercially distributed diagnostic test to receive emergency authorization during the coronavirus outbreak. Roche said it is committed to delivering as many tests as possible and is going to the limits of its production capacity. The emergency authorization of the Roche test comes amid rising concerns about the relatively low levels of coronavirus testing in the US. 

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday amid private reports said that US energy companies are planning to cut investment and drilling plans helped as well in pushing up prices. However, for the week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 23%, while Brent lost 25% -with both marking their biggest weekly percentage declines, based on the front-month contracts, since December 2008. A combination of growing fears over the demand hit from the coronavirus pandemic and Saudi Arabia's launch of a price war against Russia, that threatens to flood an already-oversupplied market with more crude, hammered prices for oil this week. President Donald Trump's decision to impose restrictions on travel to the US from Europe added to pressure given the hit to jet fuel demand. Crude oil futures for April added 23 cents or 0.7 percent to settle at 31.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude rose 63 cents or 1.9 percent to settle at $33.85 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee staged a smart recovery against dollar on Friday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Sentiments turned positive as the government data showed that retail inflation dropped for the first time after six months in February, easing to 6.58% as prices of vegetables and other kitchen items cooled. Also, India's industrial output grew 2% in January against a contraction of 0.3% in December. Traders also drew some solace with private report stating that India's central bank is likely to announce liquidity-boosting measures to help stabilise financial markets which have fallen sharply due to the coronavirus outbreak. Also, splendid recovery in local equity markets gave the uptrend some momentum. On the global front, dollar stood tall on Friday as investors rushed to buy the currency amid deepening panic over the coronavirus epidemic, while the euro nursed losses after the European Central Bank underwhelmed investors by not cutting rates. The last traded price of rupee was 73.91, 37 paise stronger from its previous close of 74.28 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11425.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 13227.55 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 855.55 crore with gross sales of Rs 3844.34 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.13 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.01 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday after a coronavirus test developed by Swiss drug giant Roche has been granted emergency use authorization by the FDA. Asian markets are trading in red in early deals on Monday as the US Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to zero and launched a massive quantitative easing program in an emergency move on Sunday. Indian markets showed smart recovery, after hitting lowest level in early deals, and ended the volatile session in green territory with modest gains on Friday on value buying. Today, the start of new week is likely to be pessimistic tracking sell-off in the Asian peers amid coronavirus scare. As per a private report, India on Sunday reported that the number of coronavirus infections had risen to 107, an increase of 23 from the day before, with Maharashtra the worst hit. A rise in coronavirus cases is likely to further hit the market sentiment. There will be some cautiousness with Crisil's report that credit pressures have intensified on India Inc as the coronavirus spread deepens in India and across the globe. It warned that Airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes and restaurants will be the worst hit businesses. Investors will be also concerned as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a whopping Rs 37,976 crore on a net basis from the Indian markets in March so far amid the coronavirus pandemic triggering fears of a global recession. Traders will be looking ahead to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data to be out later in the day. Besides, the government had hiked the excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 3 per litre each to garner about Rs 39,000 crore additional revenue, as it repeated its 2014-15 act of not passing on gains arising from slump in international oil prices. Higher fuel prices may bring back fears of spike in inflation. Though, some respite may come later in the day with the commerce ministry's data showing that India's exports rose for the first time in seven months in February growing by 2.91 percent to $27.65 billion. Besides, imports too grew by 2.48 percent to $37.5 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.85 billion as against $9.72 billion in February 2019. Traders may take note of report that traders' body CAIT has appealed to Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to direct regulator IRDAI to mandate insurance firms to introduce coverage for disruptions to businesses on account of the coronavirus outbreak. There will be buzz in the tractor related companies stocks with a private report that while the entire auto segment is facing pressure, tractor segment is seeing a good traction on the backdrop of a robust rabi output and prevailing crop prices. Also, the increase in rural and agri spending by the government should augur well for the industry. Meanwhile, SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) is scheduled to debut on the bourses on Monday, March 16. 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,955.20

8,953.77

10,558.02

BSE Sensex

34,103.48

30,738.47

36,118.98

                                                 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

2,766.64

25.55

22.03

28.38

SBI

1,557.03

242.00

201.50

265.65

Tata Motors

1,061.53

89.75

80.48

96.58

ONGC

730.52

65.90

54.93

71.93

ICICI Bank

671.05

447.20

406.68

476.23

 

  • Vedanta is aiming to increase total production its Lanjigarh alumina refinery to 1.8 MT in 2019-20, on the back of a significant improvement in operating efficiencies. 
  • Yes Bank will be replaced in the Nifty banking index by Bandhan Bank from March 27. 
  • Tata Steel has raised funds aggregating to Rs 670 crore through allotment of 6,700 Unsecured, Redeemable, Listed, Rated NCDs at face value of Rs 10,00,000 each on private placement basis. 
  • Wipro has signed global strategic partnership with PLEXIS Healthcare Systems to accelerate digital transformation for healthcare payers.
News Analysis