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Market Commentary 15 May 2020
Benchmarks to get flat-to-positive start on Friday

 

Indian equity benchmarks remained under selling pressure throughout the day and ended with losses of over two percent on Thursday, tracking heavy sell off in overseas markets as fears of a second wave of infections overshadowed prospects of re-opening economy. Markets made gap-down opening, despite a slew of announcements made by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman targeting various sectors. The FM doled out measures worth Rs 5.94 trillion, focusing largely on MSMEs, NBFCs, power discoms, and real estate sector, with more such announcements to follow throughout the week. The sentiments remained weak with former chief statistician Pronab Sen fears that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract astronomically by nine per cent in 2020-21 if the government does not go beyond the package announced by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Local barometer gauges added losses in last hour of trade, as sentiments on the street weakened further as the UN slashed India's projected growth rate to 1.2% in 2020 and forecast that the global economy will contract sharply by 3.2% as the COVID-19 pandemic paralyses the world, sharply restricting economic activities, increasing uncertainties and unleashing a recession unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The street remained disappointed with Fitch Solutions stating that despite additional funding, the continued lack of medical investment and healthcare infrastructure will present challenges to mounting an effective response in India against COVID-19 pandemic. With 8.5 hospital beds per 10,000 citizens and eight physicians per 10,000, the country's healthcare sector is not equipped for such a crisis. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 885.72 points or 2.77% to 31,122.89, while the CNX Nifty was down by 240.80 points or 2.57% to 9,142.75.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday, snapping a two-session losing streak, as traders once again expressed optimism about states partially reopening amid the coronavirus pandemic. Adding to the positive sentiment, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo expanded the state's phased reopening to five regions. The regions in upstate and central New York can resume manufacturing, construction and agricultural operations as well curbside pickup at retail stores beginning on Friday. Besides, banking stocks helped lead the way back to the upside, with the KBW Bank Index skyrocketing by 3.9 percent after falling as much as 3.8 percent in early trading. The recovery by banking stocks may partly reflect bargain hunting, as traders picked up the stocks at reduced levels after the index hit its lowest intraday level in well over a month. On the economic data, a report released by the Labor Department showed steep drops in both import and export prices in the US in the month of April. The Labor Department said import prices plunged by 2.6 percent in April after tumbling by a revised 2.4 percent in March. Street had expected import prices to plummet by 3.1 percent compared to the 2.3 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, while the Labor Department released a report showing a continued decline in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ended May 9, the number of new claims still came in well above street estimates. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 2.981 million, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week's revised level of 3.176 million. Street had expected jobless claims to tumble to 2.5 million from the 3.169 million originally reported for the previous week.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Thursday on hopes energy demand will see an increase as some states in America are opening up their businesses. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a monthly report said the COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to sharply curtail crude demand in May, while producers implement the largest monthly production cut on record. The IEA said world demand for crude will drop by 21.5 million barrels a day this month, while crude-producing nations and companies slash output by a spectacular 12 million barrels a day. For 2020, the IEA now looks for global crude demand to fall by 8.6 million barrels a day versus its April forecast for a fall of 9.3 million barrels a day. Crude oil futures for June surged $2.27 or 9 percent to settle at $27.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude rose $1.94 or 6.7 percent to settle at $31.13 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Thursday, amid weakness in domestic equity markets and strength in the dollar overseas. Investors remain concerned as the UN slashed India's projected growth rate to 1.2% in 2020 and forecast that the global economy will contract sharply by 3.2% as the COVID-19 pandemic paralyses the world, sharply restricting economic activities, increasing uncertainties and unleashing a recession unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, losses were limited as traders found some support with report that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled the first tranche of the mega economic stimulus package aimed at uplifting the economy. On the global front, dollar climbed towards a three-week high on Thursday as risk appetite deteriorated broadly after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dismissed speculation about negative interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.56, 10 paise weaker from its previous close of 75.46 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6489.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 6358.57 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1161.48 crore with gross sales of Rs 1543.53 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 20.33 crore against gross selling of Rs 21.59 crore.

 

The US markets ended in green on Thursday as traders once again expressed optimism about states partially reopening amid the coronavirus pandemic. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Friday ahead of the release of Chinese economic data expected later in the day. Indian markets ended sharply lower on Thursday as coronavirus worries persisted on mounting concerns that the infection rate may climb. Today, the markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid rally on Wall Street overnight coupled with the second tranche of relief measures by government. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced that the government will supply food to eight crore migrant workers in the country for the next two months. This along with promises of affordable housing and loans for street vendors. Besides, ruling out any impact of stimulus on the price situation, Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian said the COVID-19 pandemic has severely dented the demand for non-essential or discretionary goods, creating deflationary conditions. Though, traders may be concerned with report that the total number of coronavirus cases in India has been rising constantly. The country now is just a whisker from overtaking China - from where the virus originated. India's tally of cases now stands at 81,997 and 2,649 people have died of infections so far, according to Worldometer data. There may be some cautiousness as SBI research report stated that with the government's Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package, the country's fiscal deficit is likely to be more than double to 7.9% in the current financial year. There will be some buzz in the power stocks as Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a one-time emergency fund of Rs 90,000 crore to help state-owned distribution companies (discoms) pay their dues to power generating companies (gencos) and transmission companies (transcos). There will be some reaction in restaurants industry related stocks with Crisil Research's report that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to cut 40-50% revenue of the country's organised dine-in restaurants this financial year. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,142.75

9,081.30

9,242.65

BSE Sensex

31,122.89

30,906.71

31,485.00

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

481.37

167.95

166.38

170.63

Tata Motors

463.42

83.80

82.47

85.22

NTPC

391.17

89.35

86.73

92.73

Vedanta

385.73

89.15

87.33

91.38

ICICI Bank

340.00

327.40

323.87

332.72

 

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has received the Establishment Inspection Report from the USFDA for formulations Srikakulum plant (SEZ) Unit I, Andhra Pradesh. 
  • UltraTech Cement is planning for issuance of redeemable non-convertible debentures from time to time, on private placement basis. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has received approval for supply of derivative of compact SUV Vitara Brezza to Toyota Kirloskar Motor which will then sell the vehicle under its own brand name. 
  • Infosys has expanded strategic collaboration with NICE Actimize, a NICE business and a leader in Autonomous Financial Crime Management.
News Analysis