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NSE Intra-day chart (12 April 2017)
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Market Commentary 13 April 2017
Markets to remain weak, Infosys numbers eyed


A session after showcasing a wonderful rally, Indian equity indices faltered and failed to extend the winning momentum on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data- index of industrial production (IIP) for February and consumer price index (CPI) for March-to be released later in the day. Sentiments remained downbeat over Former finance minister P Chidambaram's comment that a more realistic deadline for rolling out the goods and services tax was October 1, instead of the scheduled date of July 1. While maintaining GST would be good for the country in the long-term, the senior Congress leader cautioned the government saying that implementation of the mega tax reform could be inflationary in the short-term. He cited the preparation time needed for small and medium-scale enterprises to get on to the new tax reform structure and the time needed for activating the GSTN platform as the main reasons why he thought October was a more realistic deadline. Adding the woes, leading exporters' body EEPC India has raised a red flag against the debilitating impact of sharp rise in rupee against dollar in the last three months on exports, which may slip off from the recovery path, if the situation persists further. Since the first week of January, rupee has gained by close to six per cent, eroding significantly the exporters' margins and more importantly the competitive edge against India's trade rivals in the international markets. Finally, the BSE Sensex decreased 144.87 points or 0.49% to 29643.48, while the CNX Nifty was down by 33.55 points or 0.36% to 9,203.45.

 

The US markets closed lower on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious amid persistent geopolitical risks. The main indexes briefly trimmed losses as US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the civil war in Syria and nuclear capabilities of North Korea. Sergei Lavrov said Moscow wasn't convinced of chemical attack in Syria, but both countries agreed that a United Nations-led probe is necessary. On the economy front, the price of US imports fell in March for the first time in four months owing to lower costs for oil, but prices of many other goods continued to rise. The import price index dropped 0.2% in March. It's the first decline since November. The cost of fuel retreated 3.8% in March, the biggest drop in more than a year. Lower prices for one of the nation's biggest imports kept overall import prices in check. Yet if fuel is set aside, import prices climbed 0.2% last month to accentuate an upward trend that began last year. Most of the increase was in industrial supplies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 59.44 points or 0.29 percent to 20,591.86, the Nasdaq was down 30.61 points or 0.52 percent to 5,836.16, while S&P 500 dropped 8.85 points or 0.38 percent to 2,344.93.

 

Crude oil futures slipped on Wednesday despite report of surprise dip in U.S. crude stockpiles. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles from record highs while production increased. The EIA said that crude oil inventories fell by 2.166 million barrels. Gasoline production grew by 0.412 million, while distillate stockpiles fell by 2.153 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery fell by $0.29 to $53.11 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended lower by $0.30 at $56.65 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee depreciated against the US dollar on Wednesday, due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Investor maintained a cautious approach ahead of the key macro data of Index of industrial production (IIP) and Consumer price index (CPI) inflation slated to be announced after the market hours. The domestic currency looked weak from the very beginning and the sentiment was also dampened by lackluster trade in the equity markets. On the global front, dollar languished at a five-month low versus yen on Wednesday, as simmering geopolitical tensions checked risk appetite and put the safe-haven Japanese currency in favour. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.67, 17 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.50 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4649.18 crore against gross sell of Rs 5373.96 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 995.17 crore with gross sales of Rs 1200.41 crore.

 

The US markets made another soft closing in the last session. Stocks remained mostly negative throughout the trading day amid lingering geopolitical concerns. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start led by the Japanese market which is down by another over a percent after the dollar slumped and Treasury bond yields dropped to the lowest level this year in reaction to President Donald Trump's comments that the greenback was getting too strong and that he won't brand China a currency manipulator. The Indian markets lost around half a percent in last session ahead of key macro data and amid heightened geopolitical worries. Today, the start of the final trading day of the week is likely to remain somber tailing the weakness in other global markets and the traders will be negatively reacting to the economic data announced after the market hours yesterday. In a double whammy, India's industrial production contracted by 1.2 percent in February due to poor performance manufacturing sector, while retail inflation jumped to a five-month high of 3.81 percent in March on costlier protein items, edible oils and non-food products like fuel and light. Traders will be eyeing the official start of the fourth quarter earnings session, as Infosys, India's second biggest IT services exporter, will report its March quarter results. Traders will not only be eyeing its earnings but guidance too amid crackdown on H-1B visas by the Trump administration. Traders will also be reacting to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Review Committee report which said that centre can take a pause on the fiscal consolidation front over the next three years by maintaining a fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 3% till 2019-20.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9203.45

9161.37

9245.97

BSE Sensex

29643.48

29515.87

29804.95

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

165.94

280.80

277.32

285.12

Hindalco

142.53

193.00

190.73

196.63

SBI

132.51

290.15

287.68

294.03

Adani Ports

81.01

327.60

321.97

334.92

Tata Power

76.43

85.55

84.33

86.53

 

  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm - Reliance Jio Infocomm has fully withdrawn the Jio Summer Surprise offer, following the advice of Telecom Regulatory Authority of India.
  • Wipro has completed the acquisition of InfoSERVER S.A. on April 10, 2017.
  • SBI is planning to form a joint venture company in a bid to ramp up its merchant acquiring business.
  • Tata Power Delhi Distribution, a joint venture of Tata Power and the Government of Delhi, has made an advanced preparation with 39 mobile distribution transformers evenly stationed across its distribution network in North and North West Delhi.  
News Analysis