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NSE Intra-day chart (08 February 2018)
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Market Commentary 09 February 2018
Markets likely to make pessimistic start on subdued global cues

 

Snapping seven days of losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended the session with a gain of around a percentage point, with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 34,400 (Sensex) and 10,550 (Nifty) levels, as traders opted to buy beaten down but fundamentally strong stocks after seven sessions of continuous drubbing. After opening mildly in green markets gained momentum, as traders also took some encouragement with ASSOCHAM chief's statement that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to keep the policy rate unchanged is on the expected lines, though the less than hawkish stance has come about as a relief for the industry which had even feared a possible hike in the lending rates, following inflationary concerns. A sharp fall in oil prices also eased investors' concerns surrounding inflation and rising twin deficits. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook predicted that US oil production would top 11 million barrels per day this year. Sentiments also got boost by a report that India's oil refining capacity is set to jump 80%, or by 194 MT, by 2030 as state refiners, Reliance Industries and Rosneft line up expansion plans, undeterred by the renewables explosion, hoping to meet future demand. Traders also got some support with report that the CBDT has directed the taxman not to undertake ‘coercive' steps in recovering pending taxes from startups under a specific provision of the Income Tax Act, a move aimed to help budding entrepreneurs in the country. Meanwhile, Moody's said that the global green bond issuances are likely to surge by 60 per cent to a record $250 billion this year, with India and China leading the emerging markets in this space. However, markets pared some of their gains in last leg of trade, as anxiety spread among the traders with the exporters' body, Federation of Indian Export Organisations' (FIEO) statement that liquidity problems emanating from delay in refund of Goods and Services Tax (GST) is forcing exporters to turn down new orders. It also noted that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are cutting their workforce due to cash crunch. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 330.45 points or 0.97% to 34,413.16, while the CNX Nifty was up by 100.15 points or 0.96% to 10,576.85.

 

The US markets closed lower on Thursday, as stocks went into a free fall late in the session on concerns about mounting volatility and worries about inflation and rising bond yields. While inflation concerns and rising rates are often described as the catalyst for the selloff, the street have also noted that equities were due for a pullback after scoring big gains in January and throughout 2017. Separately, political worries might pressure the market somewhat, as a partial shutdown of the federal government lies ahead if lawmakers don't agree on spending measures by midnight. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer unveiled an agreement. The deal faces a bumpy path in the House, where Republicans will need Democrats' help to pass it, since conservatives will likely object to a big increase in government spending. On the economy front, initial US jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 221,000 in the seven days ended February 3. The more stable monthly average of claims declined by 10,000 and stood at 224,500. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, dropped by 33,000 to 1.92 million. Missouri, California and New York saw big declines in unadjusted jobless claims, but in most states there was little change. US jobless claims have now been under the key 300,000 threshold that signals a vibrant labor market for 153 straight weeks. And there is no evidence at all that claims are about to head higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1,032.89 points or 4.15 percent to 23,860.46, the Nasdaq dropped 274.825 points or 3.9 percent to 6,777.16, the S&P 500 edged lower by 100.66 points or 3.75 percent to 2,581.00.

 

Extending their southward journey for yet another day, Crude oil futures slipped to their lowest in five weeks due to a stronger dollar and demand concerns. Rising U.S. stockpiles also contributed to the recent decline in oil prices, which have fallen from 4-year highs in the past few weeks. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Moreover, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia may extend their supply quota deal into 2019. Benchmark crude oil futures declined 64 cents or 1 percent, at $61.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude lost 0.6 percent, to $64.41 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee wiped off its early losses and ended a tad strong against dollar on Thursday, owing to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Local currency got support with report that a sharp fall in oil prices eased investors' concerns surrounding inflation and rising twin deficits. Besides, strong gains in the domestic equity markets also supported the rupee. However, dollar's strength against major global currencies overseas restricted further up move. On the global front, dollar marched higher on Thursday, sending a key index of the US currency to a two-week high. The greenback continued to find support in optimism over a budget deal in Washington, D.C., and hopes for higher US interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.25, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.28 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5897.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 6898.87 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 490.68 crore with gross sales of 900.99 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.14 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.05 core.

 

U.S. stocks witnessed bloodbath yet again and settled with a cut of around four percentage points on Thursday, as traders grew concerned about inflation and higher interest rates. Moreover, traders shrugged off some upbeat corporate earnings. Asian markets were trading in deep red, following another day of steep falls on Wall Street. The Japanese stock market is sharply lower on Friday after the safe-have yen strengthened again. Indian markets rallied on Thursday as the oil market downturn eased investors' concerns surrounding inflation and rising twin deficits. Today, the markets is likely to make gap-down opening, as global equity markets continued to tumble on worries about rising inflation and higher interest rates. Back on domestic turf, traders may get some relief later in the day with private report that fears of the Reserve Bank of India going for a rate hike are overdone and there is still room for a 25 bps rate cut in the August monetary policy review, provided rains are normal. Traders may also take some comfort with Nasscom's report that outlook for the Indian information technology (IT) sector is cautiously positive in 2018 as challenges remain amidst prospects of greater IT spending with global and US economies improving. There will be some buzz in stocks related to public sector banks (PSBs) with India Ratings and Research stating that PSBs may need capital of Rs 2.06 trillion for a credit growth of the 8-9 per cent in the financial year 2019. Telecom stocks will be in focus after the telecom regulator has sought views on whether airwaves for public mobile radio trunking (PMRT) service -- used in disaster relief, emergency response, public safety and some large industries -- should be allocated by the government or auctioned. Stocks related to sugar space will be in focus after the central government has put a ceiling on the amount of sugar mills can sell by imposing significant minimum stocks for the next two months to check falling prices.

 

                    Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,576.85

10,491.67

10,649.92

BSE Sensex

34,413.16

34,136.50

34,662.09

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

SBI

189.33

301.40

294.87

305.62

Power Grid

188.64

193.20

192.15

194.45

Vedanta

166.05

314.45

306.87

320.32

Sun Pharma

137.08

584.10

549.60

602.80

Tata Motors

124.52

374.85

371.37

379.17

 

  • Maruti Suzuki India has launched the third generation of its iconic and blockbuster brand - Swift.
  • HDFC Bank's stock broking subsidiary - HDFC Securities has entered into partnership with Artificial Intelligence startup Niki.ai to introduce stock search through HDFC Bank's Facebook Messenger Chatbot.
  • Lupin's JV YL Biologics has successfully completed global Phase III clinical trial of its investigational Etanercept biosimilar.
  • IndusInd Bank has launched the All-in-one store in partnership with Tapzo.
News Analysis