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Market Commentary 08 January 2018
Markets to make a green start on positive global cues


Friday turned out to be a remarkable day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks where bulls tightened their grip on Dalal Street, with Nifty and Sensex hitting fresh record highs and ending above their crucial 10,550 and 34,150 levels, respectively for the first time ever. The markets' mood remained up-beat throughout the day and benchmarks fervently gained from strength to strength, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Sentiments remained up-beat throughout the session with NITI Aayog's expectation that the first strategic disinvestment of Central Public Sector Enterprises will be conducted within the current financial year. It said that the process of divestment is being carried out by Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) and the first transactions are expected in the current financial year after a long gap of 14 years. Some support also came with the Union Cabinet approving the revised model concession agreement for public private partnership projects in major ports. The amendments were made in the MCA to attract more investments in the port sector and are expected to clear the hurdles created by some of the provisions in the current model concession agreement. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's assurance that the positive impact of the government's reform measures would get reflected in the medium to long term and noted that India is the only economy which could maintain a growth rate of 7-8 percent amid challenges like the country's weak public sector banks (PSBs) and initial disturbance of demonetisation, Goods and Services Tax (GST). Meanwhile, traders' focus shifts to third quarter earnings with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys scheduled to report their Q3 numbers next week, amid signs the economy is recovering after the withdrawal of high-denomination currency bills in late 2016 and the introduction of the GST last year. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 184.21 points or 0.54% to 34,153.85, while the CNX Nifty was up by 54.05 points or 0.51% to 10,558.85.

 

The US markets closed higher on Friday, to end the first week of 2018 on a stellar footing, marked by four straight positive session following lackluster jobs data. Friday's rally meant that none of the equity indexes have posted a down day so far in 2018. For the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, it was the fourth straight closing record, while the Dow carved out its third in a row. The broad-market benchmark has closed at a record on the first four trading days of the New Year, the first time it has done so since 1964. The gains over the week have been buoyed by the recently passed corporate tax-cut package, rising commodity prices, and robust corporate earnings. Solid economic data and low bond yields have also been cited as contributing factors. On the economy front, the US created 148,000 jobs in December. This was the slowest pace in three months, and below the 198,000 increase that economists had predicted. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 percent for the third straight month. Worker pay increased 2.5 percent from December 2016 to December 2017, up from 2.4 percent in the prior month. Separately, the US trade deficit widened 3.2 percent in November to $50.5 billion, the highest trade gap since January 2012. In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index sank 1.5 points to 55.9 percent in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 220.74 points or 0.88 percent to 25,295.87 and the Nasdaq gained 58.643 points or 0.83 percent to 7,136.56, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 19.16 points or 0.70 percent to 2,743.15.

 

Crude oil futures declined on Friday trimming strong recent gains, as investors fretted over rising US production to near record highs. Traders largely overlooked a report that OPEC members deepened production cuts in December and data showing the number of US oil rigs fell by the most since November. According to data from energy services firm Baker Hughes the number of oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell by five to 742. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery ended lower by $0.57 or 0.92 percent at $61.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery was down by 0.63 percent to $67.63 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee pared some of early gains to end marginally higher against dollar on Friday, due to some dollar demand from importers and corporates. Sentiments were positive with credit rating agency Fitch ratings in its latest report expressed optimism about India's medium-term economic prospects and said it would outstrip China's growth. Besides, good gains in domestic equity markets too supported the domestic unit. Though, the dollar's recovery against some currencies overseas capped the rupee's gain. On the global front, Sterling steadied against dollar and euro on Friday, ending the week at much the same levels it started it at, with traders keen to see new developments on Brexit negotiations before taking on new positions on the British currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 63.37, 4 paise stronger from its previous close of 63.41 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4677.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 4313.65 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 720.71 crore with gross sales of Rs 441.07 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.78 crore.

 

 

The US markets made a positive closing in the last session, shrugging off the disappointing batch of U.S. economic data, with major averages once again reaching new record closing highs. The Asian markets have made a green opening ahead of the start of the region's earnings season this week, with investors betting that the outlook for economic growth and profits is strong enough to support record-high stock prices. The Indian markets coming out of the consolidation mood surged in the last session and the major bourses touched their fresh record highs. Today, the start is likely to be in green on positive global cues, though traders will be concerned with the Central Statistics Office (CSO) first advance estimates of GDP growth for current financial year, stating that the Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower 6.5 percent in 2017-18 compared to the 7.1 percent in 2016-17. According to CSO, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 129.85 lakh crore. However, there will be some support with report that credit growth after a long gap grew in double digits to 10.65 per cent at Rs 80,96,727 crore in the fortnight ended December 22, 2017 due to the base effect. Meanwhile, credit rating agency ICRA's statement that the narrower-than-expected win in Gujarat and upcoming polls in other states will lead to a reorientation of priorities for the government with a greater focus expected on the farm and small businesses sectors. It has said that government may opt for fiscal deficit range in Budget. There will be some buzz in the aviation stocks, as the government has if capping of airfares get implemented it would result in increased cost of air travel for 99 per cent of the passengers.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10558.85

10530.60

10576.60

BSE Sensex

34153.85

34053.51

34221.52

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Yes Bank

307.21

332.85

320.90

341.35

SBI

145.81

306.35

304.17

309.97

NTPC

103.59

177.50

176.58

178.33

Vedanta

96.94

339.55

336.33

344.53

ITC

92.12

262.90

262.03

263.63

  • Tata Steel has reported marginal fall of 1.22 percent in its saleable steel production to 3.24 MT in Q3FY18 compared to 3.28 MT in the corresponding quarter of 2016-17.
  • Bharti Airtel has entered into strategic alliance with Samsung, India's No. 1 smartphone and consumer electronics brand, to bring a range affordable 4G smartphone options to customers.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has reported 13.75% rise in its production to 1,22,096 units in December 2017, as compared to 1,07,338 units in December 2016.
  • Yes Bank has tied-up with fintech startup Nearby Technologies to provide Aadhaar-enabled cardless and pinless ATM service by which customers can deposit or withdraw money.
News Analysis