NSE Intra-day chart (22 June 2017)
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Market Commentary 23 June 2017
Markets to make a cautious start on sluggish global cues


Indian equity markets showed a volte-face on Thursday as what started on a confident note ended as a dismal show. The optimism in domestic markets petered out completely by the end of trade, tracking weak trend seen in European markets, while investors also took cues from the minutes of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) June policy meeting. The central bank's monetary policy committee wants more evidence that inflation has sustainably fallen below its target before deciding whether to lower interest rates. RBI voted 5-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.25% earlier this month, but issued a slightly less hawkish statement after consumer inflation eased to 2.99% in April, below its 4% target. Marketmen were optimistic for most part of the session, as sentiments remained upbeat with the report that economic think-tank NCAER revised up its projection for the country's economic growth to 7.6% for the current fiscal, compared with the earlier prediction of 7.3% on forecast of normal monsoon. In its quarterly review of the economy, NCAER said prospects for the agricultural sector in 2017-18 remain optimistic on forecast of good rains. The agency has also revised upward its forecast of GVA (Gross Value Added at Basic Prices) growth at 7.3% for 2017-18 from its February estimate of 7%. However, the sanguinity in local markets was under check, as profit booking in metal and Real Estate counters exerted downside pressure on the frontline indices and dragged them even below to the psychological 9,650 (Nifty) and 31,300 (Sensex) levels. Moreover, the broader markets too succumbed to the selling pressure and went home with cuts of over half a percent. In a key decision, the market regulator SEBI banned participatory notes (p-notes) from taking naked positions in the derivatives segment, and eased the entry process for foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). It also removed the one-year lock-in requirement for private equity investors registered as alternative investment funds (AIFs) in initial public offerings (IPOs). Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 7.10 points or 0.02% to 31290.74, while the CNX Nifty was down by 3.60 points or 0.04% to 9,630.00.

 

The US markets closed mostly lower on Thursday, as weak financials and consumer staples shares eclipsed a rally in the health-care and biotechnology sectors. The Federal Reserve said that the 34 largest US banks have all cleared the first stage of an annual stress test, showing they would be able to maintain enough capital in an extreme recession to meet regulatory requirements. Although the banks, including household names like JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp, would suffer $383 billion in loan losses in the Fed's most severe scenario, their level of high-quality capital would be substantially higher than the threshold that regulators demand, and an improvement over last year's level. On the economy front, fewer than 250,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits in mid-June, underscoring the strength of a US jobs market whose biggest problem is a growing shortage of qualified workers. Initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 241,000 in the seven days stretching from June 11 to June 17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.74 points or 0.06 percent to 21,397.29, S&P 500 edged lower by 1.11 points or 0.05 percent to 2,434.50, while Nasdaq added 2.74 points or 0.04 percent to 6,236.69.

 

Crude oil futures got some relief and snapped their three days losing streak on Thursday. Though the crude managed to pare some of the losses of last couple of sessions but sentiment remained bearish as investors continue to fret about rising global stockpiles. OPEC members are in talks about making further cuts in oil production, according to Iran's oil minister. In May, Opec and non-Opec members agreed to extend production cuts for a period of nine months until March, but stuck to production cuts of 1.8 million bpd agreed in November last year. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery ended up by $0.21 or 0.5 percent to $42.74 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended up by 1.03 percent to $45.27 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee extended its weakness for the third consecutive day on Thursday, due to continued capital outflows amid growing demand for dollar from importers. Sentiment remained subdued with ratings agency ICRA's report that funding of crop loan waivers would likely worsen the fiscal deficit and leverage levels of state governments. According to the report, there is a significant risk that productive capital spending may end up being used to fund a portion of the loan waivers, impacting the growth of overall investment activity in the country. However, the losses were contained because of a weak dollar against key global currencies. On the global front, dollar eased versus yen on Thursday as a recent rally tied to bets on another US interest rate hike this year lost steam. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.59, 7 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.52 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4835.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 4923.88 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1574.92 crore with gross sales of Rs 748.77 crore.

 

The US markets continued their lackluster performance and made another mixed closing in the last session, though in early trade stocks benefited from a positive reaction to the release of the details of the Senate Republican plan to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Asian markets too have made a mixed start, even though oil halted its losing streak. Chinese equities remain in the limelight as the nation's banking watchdog raised scrutiny on some of the biggest dealmakers. The Indian markets gave up all their gains in final hours to end flat with just a positive bias in last session, tracking weak cues from European markets. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious tailing mixed global cues. Markets however, may get some support with Reserve Bank Governor Urjit Patel's statement that he is not 'overly pessimistic' about employment scenario in the IT sector, pointing out that mushrooming startups can compensate for job losses. Meanwhile, the Union Cabinet passed a resolution expressing gratitude to Chief Ministers of States and others for their cooperation in introduction of GST, calling it the biggest tax reform in independent India. The banking stocks will be in focus with credit rating agency ICRA stating that asset quality pain for banks is expected to continue in financial year 2018 due to restructuring by banks, weakness in some large corporate accounts and moves like waiver of farm loans.  On the same time IT stocks may come under pressure as Industry body Nasscom has projected that India's IT industry is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly a decade as clients defer spending in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. Software export growth in financial year 2017-18 is projected at 7-8 per cent in constant currency terms, down from 8.6 per cent last year.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9630.00

9598.88

9679.98

BSE Sensex

31290.74

31189.96

31457.20

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

261.10

294.50

291.73

296.58

Power Grid

189.64

202.30

198.63

207.33

Tata Power

112.87

82.75

81.20

83.85

Hindalco

93.49

191.60

189.13

196.03

ICICI Bank

91.81

289.60

287.45

292.55

  • HDFC Bank has partnered with ZineOne to provide rich digital banking experience to its customers across all digital channels.
  • Tata Motors has received an approval to raise Rs 500 crore through issuance of Non-Convertible Debentures on private placement basis.
  • Lupin has launched its Desoximetasone Cream USP, 0.05% and Desoximetasone Cream USP, 0.25% having received an approval from the USFDA earlier.
  • NTPC and Ministry of Power, Government of India have signed Memorandum of Understanding for the year 2017-18.
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