NSE Intra-day chart (22 April 2019)
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Market Commentary 23 April 2019
Benchmarks to make a cautious start amid weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks witnessed over a percent fall on Monday, with Sensex and Nifty breaching their psychological levels of 38,700 and 11,600, respectively. The start of the day was negative, amid a private report stating that business sentiments continue to decline for the country's financial and macro-economic conditions in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period a year before. As per the report, Composite Business Optimism Index stands at 78.4 during Q2 2019 as against 85.0 during Q2 2018 marking a 7.7% decline. The street also got cautious, with reports that National transporter Indian Railways account for nearly three-fifths of 344 central sector projects that are facing huge cost overrun due to delay in implementation for various reasons. The latest flash report of the Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry (MOSPI) for December 2018 showed that total cost overrun of 205 delayed railway projects is whopping Rs 2.21 trillion. Key indices remained under the grip of bears throughout the day and ended the trading session in red terrain. Domestic sentiments also got hit, after India has again missed the target of becoming an electricity-surplus nation by a whisker as its peak power deficit stood at 0.8 percent and the overall energy deficit remained 0.6 percent in the financial year 2019. Adding anxiety on the street, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) directed the Income-Tax Department to initiate penalty proceedings by June 30 against non-filers and drop filers of tax returns. According to the non-filer monitoring system (NMS) of the I-T department, data for 20.4 million non-filers has been obtained between 2013 and 2017, of which 2.5 million are those who are inconsistent- popularly known as dropped filers. Traders paid no heed towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that the number of registered traders under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has almost doubled, and brought transparency to the system. Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 495.10 points or 1.26% to 38,645.18, while the CNX Nifty was down by 158.35 points or 1.35% to 11,594.45.

 

The US markets ended mostly in green on Monday as investors face a big week for corporate quarterly results and economic data following an extended holiday weekend. Coca-Cola (KO), Procter & Gamble (PG), Boeing (BA), Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are just a few of the companies due to report their quarterly results this week. Investors were also monitoring a jump in crude-oil prices as the US said it would end waivers for countries that import Iranian crude. On the economic front, a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed a significant pullback in US existing home sales in the month of March. NAR said existing home sales plunged by 4.9% to an annual rate of 5.21 million in March after soaring by 11.2% to a revised rate of 5.48 million in February. Street had expected existing home sales to tumble by 3.8% to a rate of 5.30 million from the 5.51 million originally reported for the previous month. The bigger than expected pullback came after existing home sales reached their highest level in almost a year in February. With the monthly drop, existing home sales in March were down by 5.4% compared to 5.51 million in the same month a year ago. The report said the median existing home price in March was $259,400, up 3.7% from $250,100 in February and up 3.8% from $249,800 in March of 2018. Total housing inventory increased to 1.68 million existing homes available for sale at the end of March, representing 3.9 months of supply at the current sales pace. Nasdaq gained 17.20 points or 0.22 percent to 8015.27 and S&P 500 was up by 2.94 points or 0.10 percent to 2907.97, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 48.49 points or 0.18 percent to 26511.05.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher with gains of over two and half percent on Monday as the US declared it would end waivers for countries to import Iranian oil, as part of a bid by the Trump administration to push Iran's exports to zero. Eight countries had been granted a 180-day waiver to buy Iran's crude despite US sanctions, but under the stipulation that they move toward reducing those purchases and eventually stopping imports. May 2 was the deadline for renewing the waivers, and Iran's biggest customers - China, India and Turkey - had been expecting fresh waivers. Both WTI and Brent logged their highest settlements, based on front-month contracts, since late October. Benchmark crude oil futures for May surged $1.70 or 2.7 percent to settle at $65.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude gained $2.07 or 2.9 percent to settle at $74.04 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Monday, as surging oil prices stoked fiscal slippage and inflationary concerns. Traders remained concerned with a private report stating that the business sentiments continue to decline for the country's financial and macro-economic conditions in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period a year before. As per the report, Composite Business Optimism Index stands at 78.4 during Q2 2019 as against 85.0 during Q2 2018 marking a 7.7% decline. Moreover, sharp fall in equities along with dollar's strength against major global currencies overseas too affected the rupee. On the global front, dollar drifted higher against euro and British pound on Monday, supported by the relative strength of the US economy, though moves remained small as many investors were still away for the long Easter weekend. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.67, 32 paise weaker from its previous close of 69.35 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7734.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 6649.65 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 652.10 crore with gross sales of Rs 239.61 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.58 crore.

 

The US markets settled mostly higher on Monday as investors face a big week for corporate quarterly results and economic data following an extended holiday weekend. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Tuesday, with concerns China may slow the pace of policy easing curbing the market's enthusiasm. Indian markets extended their losses for second straight session and ended lower with cut of over a percent each on Monday as concerns about rising crude oil prices in the international market dented investors sentiments. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid weak global cues. Investors may also remain on the sidelines as the third phase of polling for 2019 Lok Sabha elections begin. There will be some cautiousness with the Employees State Insurance Corporation's (ESIC) latest payroll data showing that job creation dropped by 1.73% in February to 15.03 lakh compared to 15.30 lakh in the same month last year. The data showed that during September 2017 to February 2019, nearly 3 crore new subscribers joined the ESIC scheme. Traders will also be concerned about a private report indicating that the surging price of oil is an Achilles heel for the Indian economy, complicating its inflation, current account, fiscal balance and currency outlook. It added that for bond markets, the worry is two-pronged with the concern being that high oil prices might pose a fresh risk to the fiscal math, if subsides return, by extension requiring higher borrowing. Also, pipeline inflation risks due to high oil prices further raise the hurdle for rate-cuts. There will be some buzz in the coal industry related stocks with a report that India's coal import increased by 8.8% to 233.56 million tonnes in 2018-19, as compared to 214.61 MT in 2017-18. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks with the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) data showing that high air fares and capacity constraint decelerated India's domestic air passenger traffic growth in March. As per the data, the air passenger traffic growth rate in March rose to a mere 0.14% to 115.96 lakh from 115.80 lakh reported for the corresponding month of the previous fiscal. There will be some result announcements to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,594.45

11,543.25

11,686.35

BSE Sensex

38,645.18

38,434.48

39,007.05

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

374.67

238.35

232.10

249.50

Tata Motors

302.82

234.85

231.25

238.90

SBI

156.65

310.05

306.83

312.78

Bharti Airtel

138.25

349.40

337.82

359.77

IOC

125.52

149.75

148.15

152.05

 

  • TCS has developed an integrated solution for India Post that has helped modernise a network of more than 1.5 lakh post offices in the country. 
  • Eicher Motors' motorcycle arm -- Royal Enfield has expanded its presence in Asia by opening its standalone flagship store in Seoul, South Korea. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India is all set to launch new 1.2 litre DUALJET, DUAL VVT BS VI engine with next generation Smart Hybrid technology in Baleno a premium hatchback. 
  • SBI's subsidiary -- SBI General Insurance has launched a product to protect businesses from financial and reputational losses due to cyber attacks.
News Analysis