NSE Intra-day chart (19 February 2019)
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Market Commentary 20 February 2019
Benchmarks to open in green terrain on positive global cues

 

Last hour sell-off dragged Indian equity indices lower on Tuesday, with Sensex and Nifty closing below their crucial psychological levels of 35,500 and 10,650, respectively. After a positive start, the markets gained traction to trade firm for the most part of the session, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it would inject Rs 12,500 crore into the system through purchase of government securities on February 21 to increase liquidity. The purchase will be made through open market operations (OMOs). Trading sentiments got boost, with Union Minister of Commerce & Industry and Civil Aviation, Suresh Prabhu's statement that exports have been growing for the last three years. He said the Ministry of Commerce and industry has made a plan to improve the ease of doing business at district level.  He also added that if GDP of districts grow by 3% it will lead to overall growth of national GDP. Adding enthusiasm among traders, the President of India, Ram Nath Kovind said that in trade and technology, agriculture and Antarctic science, cyberspace and satellites, India's transformative growth and Argentine capabilities are creating new bilateral opportunities. However, in the last leg of the trade, the key indices erased all of their gains to settle in negative terrain, tracking weak European markets. The markets participants got cautious, with the S&P Global Ratings' latest report stating that Indian corporates are likely to see slowdown in revenue growth over the next 12-24 months. In a report, S&P said that India's central government elections this year may pose additional risks for Indian corporates. A change of administration may trigger expansionary government spending that pushes up borrowing costs or raises inflation. The street were seen taking a note of the rating agency ICRA's latest report that there is need to strengthen the corporate insolvency resolution process to ensure that the resolution plans approved by the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) are firmly implemented so that the sanctity of the process is maintained. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 145.83 points or 0.41% to 35,352.61, while the CNX Nifty was down by 36.60 points or 0.34% to 10,604.35.

 

The US markets ended marginally higher on Tuesday as another round of US-China trade talks began in Washington. President Donald Trump said the US-China trade talks are going very well and once again hinted that an early March deadline to reach a deal could be postponed. Trump said I cannot tell you exactly about timing, but the date is not a magical date. He claimed China is trying to move fast so that an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods currently set to take effect does not happen. Further, some support also came in after upbeat earnings sent shares of retail giant Walmart higher. However, stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Tuesday as traders returned to their desks following the long holiday weekend. On the economic front, reflecting growing consumer confidence and falling interest rates, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released a report showing a significant increase in US homebuilder confidence in the month of February. The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 62 in February after rising to 58 in January. Street had expected the index to inch up to 59. With the increase, the index continued to recover after hitting a more than three-year low of 56 in December. NAHB Chairman Randy Noel said ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment. He added in the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the spring selling season. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 8.07 points or 0.03 percent to 25891.32, Nasdaq added 14.36 points or 0.19 percent to 7486.77 and S&P 500 was up by 4.16 points or 0.15 percent to 2779.76.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday amid reports of falling Saudi Arabian exports. Crude-oil volumes shipped from major producer Saudi Arabia fell in the first half of February to 6.2 million barrels a day, down 1.3 million barrels a day on the previous month. Traders also eyed talks between the US and China for signs of progress on trade that could ease worries about energy demand and boost crude prices. However, international benchmark Brent crude ended slightly lower after posting gains in each of the last five sessions. Benchmark crude oil futures for March gained 50 cents or 0.9 percent to settle $56.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. April Brent crude declined a nickel or less than 0.1 percent to settle at $66.45 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Money market remained closed on Tuesday on account of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3406.01 crore against gross selling of Rs 6075.84 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 582.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 1242.92 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.22 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.09 crore.

 

The US markets ended in green on Tuesday on strong Walmart earnings and continued optimism over US-China trade talks. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday after Donald Trump said US-China trade talks are going well. Indian markets extended their southward journey for eighth straight session on Tuesday, mainly on the back of late hour sell-off. Today, the markets are likely to make optimistic start of the day following positive global cues. Investors will be eyeing on the 33rd Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting, due later in the day. Traders will be getting encouragement with report that the Union Cabinet approved promulgating an ordinance for companies law amendments to plug gaps in corporate governance and enforcement framework as well as improve the ease of doing business. There will be some support with Care Ratings' report that signalling an end to the liquidity crisis that NBFCs have been facing since last September, corporate bond issuances by them have risen by 30% in January, reflecting renewed confidence among both issuers as well as investors. Traders will also be reacting to a report that the Cabinet approved a new electronics policy which aims to create a $400 billion electronic manufacturing ecosystem by 2025 and generate 1 crore jobs in the country. Traders may take note of the government's statement that the revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the demonetisation year was not cooked up and, in fact, the growth rates are likely to go up further due to the GST. On January 31, the government revised the GDP growth rates by 110 basis points (bps) from 7.1% to 8.2% for 2016-17, the year of demonetisation, and by 50 bps from 6.7% to 7.2% for fiscal 2017-18. There will be some buzz in the oil & gas sector stocks after the government approved new rules for bidding out oil and gas blocks as it reverted back to a two-decade-old system of awarding areas based on exploration work commitment, granted marketing and pricing freedom to yet to be developed discoveries and allowed ONGC to induct private firms in existing fields. There will be some reaction in sugar sector stocks with Crisil report stating that the hike in the minimum support price for sugar to Rs 31 a kg is likely to lead to a 300-400 basis points increase in operating margins of mills in the current sugar season.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,604.35

10,552.38

10,689.58

BSE Sensex

35,352.61

35,167.83

35,656.71

           

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ITC

344.51

275.90

273.53

278.73

Yes Bank

339.90

212.85

210.23

216.78

SBI

190.64

262.90

259.63

266.83

Tata Motors

145.33

163.75

161.55

165.95

ICICI Bank

143.85

343.25

338.10

349.40

 

  • Wipro has launched Quick Migration to Cloud, a comprehensive platform designed to transform the way organizations migrate to Oracle Cloud. 
  • Tata steel's indirect wholly owned subsidiary -- T S Global Minerals Holding has concluded the divestment of its entire stake in Black Ginger. 
  • Tata Motors is exploring partnerships and business models to deliver mobility as a service in the electric mobility business. 
  • TCS has entered into a partnership with Nanoheal to offer enterprises cognitive, self-healing end-user device management solutions.
News Analysis