NSE Intra-day chart (16 June 2017)
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Market Commentary 19 June 2017
Markets to make a strong start of the new week


Indian equity markets prolonged the weakness for second straight day finished the session on a dull note, amid lack of global as well as domestic cues. Sentiments remained subdued with the report that the current account deficit soared to $3.4 billion, or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of financial year 2017, from $0.3 billion a year ago. Balance of payments for the full financial year stood at $21.6 billion, while for Q4 the same stood at $7.31 billion. Some concerns also came with report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 645.35 crore on June 15, 2017. However, the downside for the markets was capped with the report that India's exports grew 8.32 per cent to $24.01 billion in May, mainly on account of robust performance by sectors like petroleum, chemicals, engineering goods as well as gems and jewellery. Some support also came with the report that government is looking to clear FDI proposals in the 11 sectors, such as defence, insurance and telecom, where approval is still required within eight to 10 weeks of receipt of application to boost the investment climate after the abolition of the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB). Meanwhile, sharp correction was witnessed in Healthcare and IT counters, while index heavyweights such as ITC, Tata Motors continued to support the market. Technology stocks declined on worries over outlook at a time when US President Donald Trump is contemplating tougher visa actions in a key market for software services exporters, while Pharma stocks slipped amid worries about their earnings outlook, because of pricing pressures in the United States. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 19.33 points or 0.06% to 31056.40, while the CNX Nifty was up by 10 points or 0.1% to 9,588.05.  

 

The US markets closed mostly higher on Friday, though the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended lower and booked a second-straight weekly loss, extending what has proven a painful weekly stretch for tech highfliers. On the economy front, consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan slipped in June to the lowest level since the presidential election in November, but the modest decline masked a sharper drop in the gauge just since June 8, after former FBI Director James Comey testified to Congress on his dealings with President Trump. The UMich consumer sentiment gauge fell to 94.5 in early June from 97.1 in May. Prior to the testimony, the sentiment index had averaged 97.7, but since June 8 the index registered at 86.7, a decline of 11 points. Construction on new houses fell in May for the third month in a row even though builders are optimistic about the economy, perhaps a sign a shortage of skilled workers is holding the industry back. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 24.38 points or 0.11 percent to 21,384.28, S&P 500 edged higher by 0.69 points or 0.03 percent to 2,433.15, while Nasdaq was down 13.74 points or 0.22 percent to 6,151.76.

 

Crude oil futures though managed to snap the losing streak on Friday but ended the week lower by over two percent, held down by an ongoing supply overhang that persists despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production and prop up crude markets. Rising US oil output, particularly from shale drillers, is contributing to the ineffectiveness of the OPEC-led cuts. In the United States, which is not participating in any deal to hold back production, oil output has risen more than 10 percent over the past year to 9.3 million bpd. Meanwhile, the oil services firm Baker Hughes said the US rig count rose by 6 to 747, the most since April 2015. The US oil rig count rose for the 22nd week in a row. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery ended higher by $0.28 or 0.6 percent to $44.74 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended up by $ 0.32 to $47.24 on the ICE.

 

Recovering from its initial losses, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Friday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained positive as India's exports grew 8.32 per cent to $24.01 billion in May, mainly on account of robust performance by sectors like petroleum, chemicals, engineering goods as well as gems and jewellery. Some support also came with the report that India has moved up six places from 66th in last year to reach 60th position in this year's Global Innovation Index (GII). However, gains were muted as the current account deficit (CAD) soared to $3.4 billion or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017, from $0.3 billion a year ago. On the global front, US Dollar recorded a two-week high against major global currencies backed by positive economic data. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.43, 11 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.54 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5018.68 crore against gross sell of Rs 5628.88 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 701.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 215.83 crore.

 

The US markets ended modestly in red in the last session on another round of downbeat economic data .The Asian markets have made a green start and many of the indices in the region are up by over half a percent. There was some relief with a member of the US president's legal team stating that President Donald Trump isn't under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller. The Indian markets after much of dilly-dallying made a flat closing in the last session. Decline in IT and healthcare stocks offsetted a rebound in banking stocks. Today, the start of the new week is likely to be in green tailing the positive regional cues. Traders will also be getting some support with the GST Council fixing nagging issues and the government putting at rest speculation about a possible delay in GST rollout. Also, the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the government will let companies to file late returns for the first two months to let them adapt to a new system. Meanwhile, the industry body Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) said India Inc is ready for the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from July 1, as the new indirect tax regime will contribute significantly towards economic growth, job creation and exports expansion. Though, another industry body Assocham has demanded postponing GST implementation, saying that taxpayers will find it difficult to comply with the provisions of the new indirect tax regime as the IT network is not yet ready. The banking sector stocks will be in action, as the bankers are meeting from today to finalise their next course of action on six of the 12 bad loan accounts for immediate referral to NCLT after the RBI named the largest defaulters to face bankruptcy proceedings. There will be some buzz in the steel sector, as the Centre has said it will ensure that steel products are not imported in the guise of utensils or finished products. India has been successful in reducing import of steel by 37 percent during 2016-17.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9588.05

9563.75

9614.10

BSE Sensex

31056.40

30988.14

31153.69

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

211.17

316.50

315.02

318.62

SBI

192.47

285.95

283.92

287.32

ITC

123.24

306.80

303.00

310.10

Vedanta

108.43

236.80

234.95

238.70

Aurobindo Pharma

97.86

653.70

646.63

662.13

  • HCL Technologies is planning to hire around 2,000 people at the global IT centre being set up in Nagpur.
  • Tata Motors is planning to raise up to Rs 500 crore through rated, listed, unsecured, redeemable non-convertible debentures.
  • IndusInd Bank has acquired the equity shares of Kesoram Industries pursuant to conversion of Optionally Convertible Redeemable Preference Shares.
  • Axis Bank has received its board's approval to raise Rs 5,000 crore by issuing bonds on a private placement basis.
News Analysis