NSE Intra-day chart (17 July 2019)
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Market Commentary 18 July 2019
Benchmarks to get a pessimistic start tracking weak global cues

 

Indian equity bourses gained for the third straight session and ended the trading session in green terrain on Wednesday. Markets started on cautious note but soon gained momentum, after the Trump administration said that there is an enormous potential for growth in the India-US relationship, exuding confidence that the ongoing trade negotiations could be worked through because of the friendship between the two nations. Adding more comfort, Indian Ambassador to the US, Harsh Vardhan Shringla also said that it is in the mutual interest of India and the US to have a smooth trading relationship and they can find ways to deal with some of the minor speed bumps. Key indices managed to hold their heads in green territory during the whole day, despite mixed cues from global markets. The street remained positive with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that total bad loans of commercial banks declined by Rs 1.02 lakh crore to Rs 9.34 lakh crore in the 2018-19 fiscal on the back of steps taken by the government. However, gains remain capped on the back of Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian's statement that there is a need to tap foreign capital to accelerate growth from the current level of 7 per cent to 8 per cent. He added that achieving $5-trillion economy by 2024-25 is possible although the goal is slightly stretched. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 84.60 points or 0.22% to 39,215.64, while the CNX Nifty was up by 24.90 points or 0.21% to 11,687.50.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday as investors digested mixed earnings results and economic data, while a lack of progress on the Beijing-Washington tariff dispute remained a headache. The weakness on markets also came following the release of a Commerce Department report showing a bigger than expected drop in housing starts as well as a nosedive in building permits. The Commerce Department said housing starts slid by 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.253 million in June after slipping by 0.4 percent to a revised rate of 1.265 million in May. Street had expected housing starts to fall by 0.6 percent to a rate of 1.261 million from the 1.269 million originally reported for the previous month. The report also unexpectedly showed a substantial pullback in building permits, an indicator of future housing demand. Building permits plunged by 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 1.220 million in June after climbing by 0.7 percent to a revised rate of 1.299 million in May. Street had expected building permits to rise by 0.5 percent to a rate of 1.300 million from the 1.294 million originally reported for the previous month. With the much steeper than expected drop, building permits fell to their lowest level since hitting a rate of 1.201 million in May of 2017. Besides, trading activity was somewhat subdued as traders stuck to the sidelines as they wait for the earnings season to pick up steam being making more significant bets. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 115.78 points or 0.42 percent to 27219.85, Nasdaq dropped 37.59 points or 0.46 percent to 8185.21 and S&P 500 was down by 19.62 points or 0.65 percent to 2984.42.

 

Extending their previous session losses, crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday as US government data revealed that domestic crude supplies fell for a fifth straight week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude stockpiles were down 3.1 million barrels for the week ended July 12. They were forecast to fall by 4.2 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a decline of 1.4 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for August declined 84 cents or 1.5 percent to settle at $56.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent dropped 69 cents or 1.1 percent to settle at $63.66 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally lower against the American currency on Wednesday, due to fresh dollar demand from banks and importers amid rising crude oil prices. Sentiments remained down-beat with Chief Economic Advisor K V Subramanian's statement that there is a need to tap foreign capital to accelerate growth from the current level of 7 per cent to 8 per cent. He added that achieving $5-trillion economy by 2024-25 is possible although the goal is slightly stretched. Dollar's strength against major global currencies overseas also weighed on the local unit. On the global front, euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by expectations of monetary policy easing and investors' preference for the higher-yielding U.S. currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.82, 11 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.71 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3719.21 crore against gross selling of Rs 4077.69 crore,while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2399.82 crore with gross sales of Rs 1611.65 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.17 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday as weak results from CSX Corp stoked concerns that the protracted trade war between the US and China could hurt corporate earnings. Asian markets are trading in red in early deals on Thursday mirroring overnight fall on Wall Street. Indian markets extended their gains for third straight session on Wednesday led by banking, IT and FMCG stocks amid fall in crude oil prices. Today, the markets are likely to make a negative start tracking weak global cues. There will be some cautiousness with the International Monetary Fund's statement that the US dollar was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, Japan's yen and China's yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals. It added that the dollar is overvalued is likely to give Trump more fodder for his frequent complaints that dollar strength is hampering US exports. However, some support may come later in the day with a private report that budget proposals to address the country's free-float problem can result in inflows of $25 billion. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's proposals include hiking the cap on foreign portfolio investors from 24 percent in companies to get them on par with the sectoral FDI limits and increasing the minimum public holding to 35 percent from the present 25 percent. Traders may also take note of NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that India needs to grow at the rate of 9-10 percent to lift the majority of the population above the poverty line and this growth will not be possible unless entrepreneurship in the country gets a massive boost. Meanwhile, the Cabinet has approved seven amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to enforce strict timelines for the rescue of companies. The amendments are aimed at filling the critical gaps in the corporate rescue framework specified in the Code. There will be some buzz in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks as a private research firm lowered its growth target for the FMCG sector. The firm has estimated growth in 2019 to be in the 9-10 percent range for 2019 as against 11-12 percent estimated earlier. There will be some reaction in sugar stocks with report that the government has permitted export of 1,239 tonnes raw sugar under its tariff-rate quota (TRQ) to the US, which enables shipments to enjoy relatively low tariff. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,687.50

11,656.88

11,712.38

BSE Sensex

39,215.64

39,102.94

39,306.53

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

2,383.75

98.40

94.47

105.42

Tata Motors

252.37

167.90

165.35

171.40

State Bank of India

175.45

372.40

365.78

376.28

GAIL

113.34

143.40

141.77

145.72

Indiabulls Housing Finance

111.92

668.20

647.67

680.72

 

  • Wipro will continually transform to scale new heights as the world changes while remaining firmly committed to its values. 
  • ICICI Bank has launched a new digital platform targeted at MSMEs and self- employed customers to enable them to undertake their business banking transactions digitally and instantly. 
  • Vedanta has inked exploration and production contract with the government for 10 oil blocks. 
  • M&M is planning to focus on Electric vehicles, petrol engines and connected vehicles in the wake of changing business landscape.
News Analysis