NSE Intra-day chart (12 September 2019)
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Market Commentary 13 September 2019
Markets to open marginally in green amid positive global cues


Indian equity benchmarks failed to hold their gains on Thursday to end in red terrain. After a firm start, markets managed to trade above neutral lines for the most part of the session, as Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad termed the low Gross Domestic Product growth as a temporary phenomenon, and expressed confidence that things will improve in future as the fundamentals of Indian economy are strong. He added that the government is taking all necessary steps to boost the economy. Adding some comfort, data from the India Meteorological Department showed India received 38% more rainfall than the 50-year average in the week to September 11, with central India receiving 142% more rain. However, in the last hours of the trade, indices slipped in negative, as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that it seems India's economic slowdown could continue for the next two to three years as the economy faces serious structural reform, which will hurt consumer demand and manufacturing. Some worries also came with rating agency Moody's statement that Indian non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) are pulling back on loan against property (LAP) lending to micro, small and medium sized enterprises (MSMEs) because of the funding squeeze caused by the liquidity crisis in the country's financial sector. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 166.54 points or 0.45% to 37,104.28, while the CNX Nifty was down by 52.90 points or 0.48% to 10,982.80.


The US markets ended marginally higher on Thursday following reports suggesting that US and China trade aggressions continued to soften ahead of meeting next month. Trump administration officials have discussed offering an interim trade agreement to China. The limited trade agreement would delay and even roll back some US tariffs for the first time in exchange for Chinese commitments on intellectual property and agricultural purchases. Besides, sentiments also got boost after the European Central Bank's announced fresh stimulus measures, including an interest-rate cut that moved a deposit rate further into negative territory, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may also enact easy-money policies next month. On the economic data front, first-time claims for US unemployment benefits dropped by much more than expected in the week ended September 7, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 204,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level of 219,000. Street had expected jobless claims to edge down to 215,000 from the 217,000 originally reported for the previous week. Besides, with higher prices for shelter and medical care partly offset by a steep drop in energy prices, the Labor Department released a report showing just a modest increase in US consumer prices in the month of August. The Labor Department said its consumer price index inched up by 0.1 percent in August after rising by 0.3 percent in July. The uptick in prices matched street estimates.


Crude oil futures settled lower on Thursday as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reiterated their commitment to current output cuts. OPEC, in its monthly report, said global oil market would be in surplus next year and that oil demand will expand by 1.08 million barrels per day, down 60,000 per day from previous estimate due to an economic slowdown. Oil prices also were lower after a monthly report from the International Energy Agency (EIA) said that supplies from outside of OPEC would rise by 2.3 million barrels a day in 2020, from 1.9 million barrels a day this year. The IEA left its daily global demand growth forecast at 1.1 million for 2019 and 1.3 million barrels for 2020. Benchmark crude oil futures for October declined 66 cents or 1.2 percent to settle at $55.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent lost 43 cents or 0.7 percent to settle at $60.38 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Thursday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. The rupee sentiment was buoyed with report that Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasad termed the low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as a temporary phenomenon, and said things will improve in future as the fundamentals of Indian economy are strong. Besides, weakness in the dollar against some other currencies overseas gave the uptrend some momentum. However, there was some cautiousness too ahead of key economic data -- July IIP and August CPI, to be announced after the market hours. On the global front, Euro strengthened against major rivals on Thursday as markets await the latest European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate and monetary policy decisions, which will have a decisive impact on the single currency into year-end. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.14, 52 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.66 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5674.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 5096.91 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1474.38 crore with gross sales of Rs 1615.11 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.89 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday after the European Central Bank announced new stimulus measures and as investors greeted further signs of moderation in the US-China trade war. Asian markets are trading in green on Friday after US President Donald Trump signaled that he would consider an interim trade deal with China, though it would not be preferred. Indian markets ended volatile session in red on Thursday mainly due to late hour selling led by auto and IT sectors. Today, the start of session is slightly in green following firm global cues coupled with robust industrial output data. The Central Statistics Office's data showed that India's industrial output rose 4.3 percent in July, as against 1.2 percent in June. Some support will come with Union Minister of Commerce & Industry and Railways Piyush Goyal's statement that government will soon be coming out with a credit scheme for exporters with enhanced insurance cover upto 90 percent instead of the present 60 percent. Traders may take note of report that the government clarified that no licence would be required for the manufacture of goods except tobacco items, defence equipment, hazardous chemicals and industrial explosives. However, there may be some concern with government data showing that consumer price index-based inflation (CPI) for August crept up slightly to 3.21 per cent year-on-year, compared with 3.15 per cent in July, driven by a sharp rise in food prices. Also, there may be some cautiousness with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) statement that India's economic growth is much weaker than expected, attributing the reasons for corporate and environmental regulatory uncertainty and lingering weaknesses in some non-bank financial companies. Meanwhile, SEBI has asked listed companies to settle their outstanding dues to the capital markets regulator, bourses and depositories before filing schemes of arrangement such as mergers and demergers with the exchanges. There will be some buzz in the aviation stocks with ICRA's report that India's domestic air passenger demand plummet to 1.8 per cent in July following the end of tourist season while the cumulative growth in traffic in the first four months stood at a mere 1.6 per cent. Banking stocks will be in focus with RBI's data showing that bank credit and deposits growth slowed to 10.24 per cent and 9.73 per cent to Rs 96.80 trillion and Rs 127.80 trillion , respectively, in the fortnight to August 30.


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