NSE Intra-day chart (06 June 2018)
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Market Commentary 07 June 2018
Markets likely to make positive start on buoyant global cues

 

Snapping three-day losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Wednesday's trade in green terrain, following the outcome of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bi-monthly policy meet where the central bank maintained its neutral stance. However, the RBI for the first time in four-and-half-years raised key interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% on inflation concerns arising from surge in international oil prices. Markets, after making a flat to positive start, gained traction and traded jubilantly throughout the day, as traders took some encouragement with a private report stating that the government has effected a major overhaul of its credit guarantee scheme to make adequate loans available to micro and small enterprises easily by more than tripling its corpus to Rs 8,000 crore and allowing non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), along with banks, to avail of official guarantees to extend credit to such units. Market-men also took some support from a report stating that riding high on the success of UPI-based payments system, the digital payments in India has tripled to 7% of GDP from 2.5% three years ago. However, domestic bourses witnessed some selling in last leg of trade with RBI raising repo rate by 0.25%. The reverse repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) stands adjusted to 6%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.50%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with the neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth. The selloff proved short-lived and markets ended near intraday high levels with Sensex and Nifty ending tad below their crucial 35,200 and 10,700 levels, respectively. Sentiments also remained upbeat with World Bank in its latest report stated that India is projected to regain its position as the world's fastest growing major economy advancing 7.3% this fiscal year and 7.5% in the next two as factors holding back growth in India fade. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 275.67 points or 0.79% to 35,178.88, while the CNX Nifty was up by 91.50 points or 0.86% to 10,684.65.

 

The US markets ended significantly higher on Wednesday, on receding trade-war fears and good economic data.  White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that US President Donald Trump is set to hold bilateral meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations later this week. Besides, investors remained on alert for developments surrounding trade policy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reportedly urged President Donald Trump to exempt Canada from metals tariffs at a meeting Tuesday, and a separate report indicated that China offered to buy some $70 billion of US goods to get the Trump administration to cool its tariff threats. On the economic front, the US trade deficit shrank 2.1% in April-before the Trump tariffs took effect-and tumbled to a seven-month low. But the gap is still on track to widen in 2018 to the highest level in a decade. Meanwhile, the government said that the productivity of American businesses rose at a revised 0.4% annual pace in the first quarter instead of 0.7% as originally reported. Output-or goods and services produced-climbed 2.7% instead of 2.8%, while unit-labor costs, or how much it costs to make each product, rose by 2.9%, a bit higher than the preliminary 2.7% estimate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 346.41 points or 1.40 percent to 25146.39, the S&P 500 increased 23.55 points or 0.86% to 2772.35 and the Nasdaq was up by 51.38 points or 0.67 percent to 7689.24.

 

Resuming southward journey, crude oil futures settled at 2-month low on Wednesday after a day of halt, on a surprise weekly climb in domestic crude inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that crude supplies climbed by 2.1 million barrels for the week ended June 01. The EIA also reported that total domestic crude production rose by 31,000 barrels a day to fresh weekly record of 10.8 million barrels a day. Besides, gasoline stockpiles jumped 4.6 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles rose 2.2 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery declined 79 cents or 1.2 percent to settle at $64.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude fell 2 cents to settle at $75.36 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against the US dollar on Wednesday, as the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hike its key policy rate, the repo rate, by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent, in its second bi-monthly meeting for the fiscal. This was its first hike in four-and-half-years. Such a rate hike can send a signal for foreign investors that the returns in India could be going up. Hence, FPI flows could look positively now considering that they have been negative so far this year. Some optimism also spread among the investors with World Bank's report stating that India is projected to regain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy advancing 7.3 per cent this fiscal year and 7.5 per cent in the next two as factors holding back growth in India fade. Moreover, persistent foreign capital inflows into equity market along with dollar's weakness against some currencies overseas amid lingering concerns about global trade, gave the uptrend some momentum. On the global front, euro rose to a ten-day high on Wednesday, after hawkish comments from the European Central Bank, adding upward pressure to bond yields and sinking some stocks as worries over Italy also weighed. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.93, 22 paise stronger from its previous close of 67.15 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5096.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 4962.07 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 932.87 crore with gross sales of Rs 719.09 crore. In the hybrid segment, the gross selling was of Rs 0.49 crore against no buying.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday amid a pullback by U.S. treasuries after European Central Bank chief economist Peter Praet indicated the ECB will discuss ending its bond purchasing program at a meeting next week. All the Asian markets are trading in green in early deals on Thursday ahead of a meeting of major industrialized economies overshadowed by tension over U.S. steel tariffs. Indian equity benchmarks ended higher on Wednesday as investors took the RBI rate hike decision in their stride. Today, the markets are likely to make an optimistic start amid firm global cues. Sentiments will remain buoyed with World Bank's statement that India will retain the tag as the world's fastest growing major emerging economy for the next three years. The bank's June 2018 edition of the Global Economic Prospect report pegged India's GDP growth at 7.3 percent in FY 2018-19 and 7.5 percent in FY 2019-20, reflecting robust private consumption and strengthening investment. Traders will also get some support with RBI Governor Urjit Patel's statement that there are no implications on non-performing assets (NPAs) of banks because of farm loan waivers provided by various states. However, there will be some concern in the market with report that foreign direct investment (FDI) to India declined to $40 billion in 2017 from $44 billion in the previous year. FDI inflows to South Asia contracted by 4 per cent to $52 billion, owing to a drop in inflows to India. Some concern may also arise on report that the RBI's decision to increase the key lending rate by 25 basis points will hurt India's growth prospects and hit business sentiment.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,684.65

10,615.32

10,726.17

BSE Sensex

35,178.88

34,973.32

35,307.49

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Vedanta 

198.31

246.45

242.90

249.30

Tata Motors

197.54

295.65

288.30

299.95

SBI

183.15

270.15

264.43

273.63

ICICI Bank 

168.74

283.90

281.03

286.83

Yes Bank 

82.11

339.15

334.28

342.28

 

  • Infosys' wholly-owned subsidiary -- Infosys Finacle has successfully implemented the Finacle Core Banking and Analytics solutions, at Bank Sohar one of the fastest growing banks in Oman. 
  • Indiabulls Housing Finance has raised funds aggregating to Rs 145 crore through allotment of its sixteenth tranche of Secured Redeemable NCDs of face value Rs 10 lakh each. 
  • Yes Bank has launched a Green Future: Deposit scheme, which could fetch up to 8 percent for a tenure of little over 18 months. 
  • IndusInd Bank has received no-objection from NSE and BSE for the proposed merger of BFIL with itself, following comments received from the SEBI.
News Analysis