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NSE Intra-day chart (27 September 2018)
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Market Commentary 28 September 2018
Markets likely to make optimistic start on firm global cues


Indian equity markets truly depicted the choppiness of F&O expiry session on Thursday with key gauges ending the session with a cut of over half a percent. Markets extended previous session journey and ended in red terrain for seventh times in last eight sessions, breaching their crucial 11,000 (Nifty) and 36,400 (Sensex) levels. Markets started the session on a positive note with traders getting some comfort from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expectation that India's economy to grow 7% in calendar year 2018 compared with 6.2% in 2017. The body said that an expansion in services and higher demand for exports has led to a moderate recovery in industrial production. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India has large avenues of growth to sustain a GDP increase of 7-8 per cent for two decades, unlike any other major economy. However, markets lost momentum and pared all their gains to enter into red terrain as traders turned cautious with a United Nations trade report stating that the world economy remains on a shaky ground a decade after the 2008 financial crisis as the global economic growth is spasmodic and many economies are operating below potential. Domestic sentiments continued to hit with a private report stating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee. Some concerns also came after Moody's investor service expecting US sanctions on Iran to be credit negative for Indian refiners with the estimated total decline in earnings for the Indian refiners to be about $400-$500 million. The move is also expected to increase refiners' exposure to oil price volatility. Traders overlooked Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President G K Gupta's statement that higher tariffs coupled with the depreciating rupee will provide double protection to domestic industry and enable it to compete with imports. Besides, he added that it will give a push to Indian manufacturing as well. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 218.10 points or 0.60% to 36,324.17, while the CNX Nifty was down by 76.25 points or 0.69% to 10,977.55.


The US markets closed higher on Thursday as solid data bolstered confidence in the economy a day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year. The Fed on Wednesday raised interest rates in a widely expected move, and indicated it would do so again at its December meeting, as well as three more times in 2019. The Fed also raised its gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, and dropped the phrase that its policy remains accommodative. However, the removal of the word should be taken as an indication that the economy is performing as expected, emphasized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during the news conference following the Fed's announcement. On the economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a modest rebound in initial jobless claims in the week ended September 22. The report said initial jobless claims rose to 214,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level of 202,000. Besides, the Commerce Department data also showed that a much bigger than expected jump in durable goods orders in the month of August. It said durable goods orders surged up by 4.5% in August after falling by a revised 1.2% in July. Excluding a spike in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders inched up by just 0.1% in August after rising by 0.2% in July. A separate report released by the Commerce Department showed the pace of US economic growth in the second quarter was unrevised from the previous estimate. The report said gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, unchanged from the estimate released last month. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 54.65 points or 0.21 percent to 26,439.93, the S&P 500 gained 8.03 points or 0.28 percent to 2,914.00 and Nasdaq was up by 51.60 points or 0.65 percent to 8,041.97.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday, amid concerns the sanctions on Iran from November may result in supply shortage in the market. Besides, US officials said the sale of domestic reserves wouldn't be used to undercut a rally in crude. As per a private report, Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest producers of oil and a key member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was leading a push to add additional oil to global markets in the next few months to offset those US sanctions set to take hold in Tehran in early November. Benchmark crude oil futures for November gained 55 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $72.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude was up by 38 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $81.72 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.


Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Thursday, as bankers and exporters took to selling of American currency. Market participants took some support with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expectation that India's economy to grow 7% in calendar year 2018 compared with 6.2% in 2017. The body said that an expansion in services and higher demand for exports has led to a moderate recovery in industrial production. However, gains remained capped with a United Nations trade report stating that the world economy remains on a shaky ground a decade after the 2008 financial crisis as the global economic growth is spasmodic and many economies are operating below potential. On the global front, euro fell on Thursday on media reports that an Italian budget meeting was likely to be delayed, spooking traders concerned the ruling parties will push for a bigger deficit target in the euro zone's third-largest economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 72.60, 2 paise stronger from its previous close of 72.62 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5989.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 6688.96 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1622.18 crore with gross sales of Rs 2390.77 crore. Besides in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.07 crore. 


The US markets ended higher on Thursday as investors digested the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates and looked ahead to third-quarter earnings season next month. Asian markets were trading mostly in green on Friday, following gains on Wall Street overnight after news of robust US economic growth, with the chairman of the Federal Reserve saying the US does not face a large chance of near-term recession. Extending losses for second straight day, the Indian markets ended Thursday's futures and options (F&O) expiry session on weak note after the US Fed hiked interest rates and struck a hawkish stance amid rising crude oil prices. Today, the markets are likely to make optimistic start on firm global cues. Investors will be eyeing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council's 30th meeting to be held on Friday to discuss multiple proposals for levying additional cess to help flood-ravaged Kerala recoup revenue losses. Traders will be getting some encouragement with CRISIL Research's report that revenues of corporates are expected to log a robust 12.1% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of FY 2019, nearly twice the 6.4% growth in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. There will be some support with a report that the Commerce Ministry removed the value limit for exports through post but has fixed Rs 5 lakh cap in case of overseas shipments through courier services. Exporters' body FIEO said the move gives an edge to shipments through foreign post offices over couriers. Meanwhile, The Reserve Bank of India allowed banks to dip further into statutory liquidity reserves in a bid to ease a liquidity squeeze in the money markets. RBI in a statement said banks could carve out up to 15% of holdings under the statutory liquidity reserves to meet their liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) requirements as compared to 13% now. There will be some buzz in airlines industry with report that Indian carriers are unlikely to face a significant hit from the government's decision this week to impose a tariff on jet fuel, as imports account for less than 5% of domestic jet fuel consumption. Also, there will be some reaction in food processing sector stocks with report that the government will relax foreign direct investment (FDI) regulations to give a boost to the food processing sector, which has attracted $8.7 billion of investment.


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  • HCL Technologies has entered into a five-year infrastructure services deal with global diversified mining business Anglo American. 
  • Tata Steel is planning to invest Rs 300-400 crore in FY20 into Usha Martin's specialty steel division. 
  • HPCL and Tata Power have signed a MoU for setting up commercial-scale charging stations for Electric Vehicles at the HPCL retail outlets and other locations across India. 
  • L&T's Power business has won orders worth Rs 1,400 crore.
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