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NSE Intra-day chart (21 February 2018)
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Market Commentary 22 February 2018
Markets to make cautious start on series expiry day

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended the Wednesday's trade in green terrain with Sensex recapturing its crucial 33,800 level, while Nifty ending just shy of 10,400 mark, as traders opted to buy beaten down but fundamentally strong stocks after three days of continuous drubbing. After making firm start, markets turned choppy as renewed selling by foreign investors on worries over the Rs 11,300 crore fraud case at Punjab National Bank (PNB), concerns over the government's fiscal position and chances of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March may keep underlying sentiment cautious. However, markets gained traction, as traders turned optimistic with report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has set up a five-member expert panel to look into the reasons for high divergence observed in asset classification and provisioning by banks. Meanwhile, Finance minister Arun Jaitley has come down heavily on public sector banks for not safeguarding taxpayers' money spent to keep them afloat. He warned that the government would explore all options to punish the cheats responsible for bank frauds. Some support also came with foreign brokerage report that India's medium-term potential growth is likely to be above 7 percent, backed by policy reforms, higher investments and stable global growth environment. The report added that India ranks higher in medium-term growth potential compared to other emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and China. Buying got accelerated in last leg of trade with market participants taking some encouragement with rating agency India Ratings and Research revising the outlook on infrastructure sector to stable for the next fiscal on signs of improvement in projects. The agency added that the infrastructure sector is showing signs of stability, although pockets of stress still linger. Moreover, the outlook for telecom has been revised to negative-to-stable from negative. The outlooks for thermal power, oil and gas, power, ports and airports remain unchanged. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 141.27 points or 0.42% to 33,844.86, while the CNX Nifty was up by 37.05 points or 0.36% to 10,397.45.

 

The US markets closed lower on Wednesday, ending a tumultuous session firmly lower after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting sparked a fresh wave of volatility, as bond rates clambered higher and the dollar strengthened, weighing on equities. Minutes of the January 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that officials saw a stronger economy than at the end of 2017 and that more rate increases were in the offing. On the economy front, existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 5.38 million in January. Sales of previously-owned homes slid 3.2% in January, the second consecutive monthly decline. Sales were 4.8% lower than a year ago, the steepest annual decline in more than three years. The median price jumped 5.8% to $240,500. First-time buyers were responsible for just 29% of all transactions in the month, a bit lower than in recent months and still well below their long-time average of 40%. Separately, an index that tracks US manufacturers rose to a nearly 3 1/2-year high in February and a gauge for service-oriented companies hit a six-month peak, according to IHS Markit's flash PMI. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 166.97 points or 0.67 percent to 24,797.78, Nasdaq was down by 16.08 points or 0.22 percent to 7,218.23, and S&P 500 dropped 14.93 points or 0.55 percent to 2,701.33.

 

Snapping five day winning streak, Crude oil futures inched lower on Wednesday, as traders opted to book profits ahead of data expected to show rising crude inventories in the United States and as the dollar strengthened from last week's three-year lows. The U.S. crude inventories were forecast to have risen for the fourth consecutive week, increasing 1.8 million barrels last week. Higher oil prices and rising output should feed increased investment in drilling and production, in turn boosting shale output more. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery declined 11 cents or 0.02 percent at $61.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, April Brent crude gained 17 cents or 0.03 percent to settle at $65.42 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee pared all of its initial losses and ended tad higher against dollar on Wednesday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Traders took some support with foreign brokerage report that India's medium-term potential growth is likely to be above 7 percent, backed by policy reforms, higher investments and stable global growth environment. The report added that India ranks higher in medium-term growth potential compared to other emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and China. Besides, gains in the domestic equity markets supported the local unit. However, dollar's strength against major global currencies overseas restricted further up move. On the global front, dollar rose to its highest level in a week against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, as investor focus shifted to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.77, 2 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.79 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, in equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3077.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 3805.81 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1295.27 crore with gross sales of Rs 996.01 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.80 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting indicated the central bank still plans to raise interest rates three times in 2018. The Fed raised its projection for inflation from anemic levels, saying that core personal consumption expenditure index would rise notably faster this year from its 1.5% rate in December. Asian markets were trading mostly in red as investors worried surging bond yields after the Fed's latest comments on the economy will test equity valuations. Indian equity markets snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, as PSU banks bounced back from recent heavy losses and IT stocks surged on the back of a weaker rupee. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry session is likely to be slightly in red, tracking weak global leads. Traders will also remain cautious on report that the country's investment climate during April-December period of this fiscal looks subdued with declining figures in announcements of new projects and the number of projects under execution. The value of investment in new projects during April-December was Rs 4.43 trillion, less than half of Rs 9.21 trillion in the comparable period of last fiscal. Sentiments will also remain dampen on report that minutes from the Reserve Bank of India's meeting this month showed monetary policy committee members expressing concerns about accelerating inflation, although that was also tempered by uncertainty about the strength of an economic recovery. However, traders will get some support later in the session from report that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of the current fiscal is likely to be in the range of 6.5-7 per cent and may expand further in following three months. The country's GDP grew by 6.3 per cent in July-September quarter of the fiscal, up from 5.7 per cent in the first quarter. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country grew by a meagre 0.27 per cent to $35.94 billion during the first 9 months of the current fiscal. The FDI inflows were $35.84 billion during the April-December period of last fiscal, 2016-17.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,397.45

10,356.00

10,432.50

BSE Sensex

33,844.86

33,727.79

33,936.65

 

Nifty Top volumes


Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

SBI

237.14

273.30

269.10

275.80

Sun Pharma

218.99

525.75

503.70

555.40

Yes Bank

133.43

312.35

306.60

316.00

Vedanta 

122.82

327.60

322.00

332.10

Hindalco Industries

119.02

240.65

236.00

248.05

 

  • Reliance Industries will be investing Rs 60,000 crore over 10 years in Maharashtra in order to create 100,000 jobs. 
  • Lupin launches its Memantine Hydrochloride ER Capsules, 7mg, 14mg, 21mg, and 28mg having received an approval from the USFDA earlier. 
  • Yes Bank has received an approval for raising Rs 3,000 crore via Basel III compliant tier 2 bonds.  
  • ITC is planning to set up an integrated consumer goods manufacturing facility in Uttar Pradesh.
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