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Market Commentary 20 May 2019
Benchmarks to make a gap-up opening amid exit polls results

 

Indian equity benchmarks traded jubilantly on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty closing higher by over 500 and 100 points, respectively. Markets start the session on positive note, as the 15th Finance Commission, chaired by N K Singh, observed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers suggest continued high growth over the medium term despite there have been fluctuations within the overall global trend. The Commission also noted that the revenue projections on direct taxes are healthy though on indirect taxes, there have been periodic fluctuations. Traders were optimistic with a report showing that the ongoing trade war between the US and China will help India tap export opportunities in both the countries in areas such as garments, agriculture, automobile and machinery. Key indices further gained momentum in noon deals to settle near their intraday high points, as adding confident among market participants, Union Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu said that strategic investments based on a clear sectorial analysis will further strengthen India's economic growth. He also emphasized on focusing on district-development led growth to drive inclusivity in the society. Some support also came with a private report that India-Mexico Business Chamber (IMBC) has been inaugurated with the basic objective to strengthen the growing India Mexico economic and commercial linkages. Market participants paid no heed towards credit rating agency Ind-Ra's latest report stating that the rise in US-China trade tensions could lead to dumping of Chinese goods and weaker flow of foreign investment from the United States to emerging markets, including India. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 537.29 points or 1.44% to 37,930.77, while the CNX Nifty was up by 150.05 points or 1.33% to 11,407.15.

 

The US markets ended volatile trading session in red territory on Friday, as trade-related jitters overshadowed strong economic data. The late-day sell-off weighted on financial markets roiled by two weeks of concern that escalating trade war will undermine global growth. A private report indicated that negotiations between the US and China appear to have stalled. The report said scheduling for the next round of negotiations is in flux because it is unclear what the two sides would discuss. As per the report, discussions regarding scheduling the next round of talks have not taken place since President Donald Trump signed an executive order ramping up scrutiny of Chinese telecom companies. Besides, President Donald Trump took steps toward calming nerves by postponing any tariffs on Japanese and European cars, while agreeing to end levies on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. But the status of talks with China remained unclear as investors headed into the weekend. On the economic front, the University of Michigan released a report showing a substantial improvement in consumer sentiment in May, although the data was recorded mostly before trade negotiations with China collapsed. The preliminary report showed the consumer sentiment index surged up to 102.4 in May from 97.2 in April, reaching its highest level in fifteen years. Meanwhile, the US and Canada on Friday said they reached a deal to end tariffs imposed by Washington on aluminum and steel products from Canada, while Canada will remove all retaliatory tariffs. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 98.68 points or 0.38 percent to 25764.00, Nasdaq fell 81.76 points or 1.04 percent to 7816.29 and S&P 500 was down by 16.79 points or 0.58 percent to 2859.53.

 

Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday amid prospects of supply disruptions due to escalation in tensions in the Middle East. Downside was limited with the unexpected increase in US crude inventories in the previous week and prospects of a drop in global energy demand in the event of the US and China failing to end their trade dispute. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)-led supply cuts and the US sanctions on Iranian oil have significantly reduced the supply level in global crude market this year. Besides, OPEC and allied producers will meet in Vienna on June 25-26, just ahead of the expiration of the OPEC-led production cut deal. Benchmark crude oil futures for June lost 11 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $62.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude fell 41 cents or 0.6 percent to settle at $72.21 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Snapping 3-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended weaker against the American currency on Friday, as demand for the American unit from importers and banks picked up. Traders remain concerned with credit rating agency Ind-Ra's latest report stating that the rise in US-China trade tensions could lead to dumping of Chinese goods and weaker flow of foreign investment from the United States to emerging markets, including India. Adding pessimism among investors, 15th Finance Commission chairman N K Singh expressed concern over muted private investments and said that the new government should take on the challenge of introducing reforms in areas including land and labour. Weakness in other emerging market currencies against the US dollar along with rising crude oil prices also kept pressure on the Indian rupee. On the global front, dollar hovered near a two-week high against its peers on Friday, supported by strong US economic data and a bounce in Treasury yields. Finally, the rupee ended at 70.23, 20 paise weaker from its previous close of 70.03 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3568.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 4493.07 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 939.27 crore with gross sales of Rs 1185.94 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.91 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.32 crore.

 

The US markets settled lower on Friday as worries over US-China trade relations more than offset strong consumer data and other more conciliatory trade developments. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as investors tried to catch their breath following another week of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. Indian markets ended higher for second straight session on Friday on the back of buying by investors ahead of exit polls for the Lok Sabha elections. Today, the markets are likely to make gap-up opening of the new week after exit polls of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections projected BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to win a comfortable majority. Besides, investors will be looking forward the outcome of 17th Lok Sabha election on May 23. Some support will also come with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showing that the country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $1.368 billion to reach $420.055 billion in the week to May 10 on account of a rise in foreign currency assets. In the previous week, the reserves had increased by $171.9 million to $418.687 billion. Traders may take note of report that the GST Council is likely to consider next month a proposal for setting up a national bench of the Appellate Authority for Advance Ruling (AAAR) to reconcile the contradictory orders on similar issues passed by AARs in different states, a move aimed at providing certainty to taxpayers. However, there may be some cautiousness with Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Shamika Ravi's statement that India needs to make all efforts to reach double digit growth and should not treat 7 percent expansion as the new normal. Traders may also be concerned about India Meteorological Department (IMD) data showing that pre-monsoon rainfall from March to May, a phenomenon vital to agriculture in several parts of the country, has recorded a deficiency of 22 per cent. The IMD recorded 75.9 millimetres of rainfall from March 1 to May 15 as against the normal rainfall of 96.8 millimetres, which comes to around minus 22 per cent. There will be some buzz in the port sector stocks with report that India's 12 major ports recorded 5.65 percent rise in cargo handling to 60.07 million tonnes (MT) in April this fiscal, mainly due to higher demand for coal, petroleum, oil and lubricants. Also, there will be some reaction in the power sector stocks with report that coal despatches by Coal India to the power sector rose marginally by 1 per cent to 40.7 million tonnes in April 2019 compared to 40.3 million tonnes in the year-ago month.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,407.15

11,302.62

11,468.92

BSE Sensex

37,930.77

37,563.71

38,149.48

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

1,179.40

134.15

129.07

142.62

SBI

258.39

319.25

314.48

322.98

IOC

227.63

149.60

146.75

152.55

ZEEL

221.92

372.15

353.03

384.53

Tata Motors

215.76

176.85

172.13

179.63

 

  • HDFC Bank has partnered with Tirunelveli Police to launch a road safety initiative in the city. 
  • Tata Motors has inked pact with J&K Bank for retail financing of its commercial vehicles, including buses. 
  • Bajaj Auto has reported rise of 19.82% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 1,408.49 crore for Q4FY19 as compared to Rs 1,175.45 crore for Q4FY18. 
  • Tech Mahindra and Rakuten Aquafadas have signed a MoU to collaborate on building Enhanced Customer Experience Offerings leveraging latest innovations to power Enterprises of the Future.
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