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NSE Intra-day chart (11 November 2020)
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Market Commentary 12 November 2020
Markets likely to get pessimistic start ahead of macro-economic data


Indian equity benchmarks witnessed a significant bout of volatility but ended at yet another record closing high on Wednesday amid broad-based buying, thus settling in the green for the eighth session in a row. Markets made an optimistic start and traded over half percent higher, tracking largely positive cues from global markets and strong foreign fund inflows. Traders took encouragement as the health ministry said the National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 is in conversation with all vaccine manufacturers, including domestic and foreign ones, a day after Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE announced more than 90 per cent efficacy of their potential vaccine for the coronavirus. Support also came as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Minister of State Hardeep Singh Puri held a virtual dialogue with their UK counterparts to review the progress towards a post-Brexit Enhanced Trade Partnership with Britain, which could lead to a free trade agreement in the future. However, key gauges slipped into the red in the middle of the session, as some cautiousness came with Rating agency ICRA's report that states are likely to cut capital outlay on infrastructure by up to 40 percent, with coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic severely impacting revenues of state governments, and additional expenditure towards healthcare and public welfare. But, domestic markets managed to recoup all its losses to end near the highest point of the day, taking support from Crisil Ratings in its latest report stated that revenue of the agrochemical sector is likely to grow 12-14 per cent in the ongoing financial year (FY21) on the back of sharp recovery in offtake from domestic agriculture sector and continuing healthy exports. Meanwhile, the Centre government has released Rs 6,195 crore as the eight equated monthly installment of post-devolution revenue deficit grants to 14 states. The 14 states included Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Himachal Pradesh (HP), Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttarakhand and West Bengal. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 316.02 points or 0.73% to 43,593.67, while the CNX Nifty was up by 118.05 points or 0.93% to 12,749.15.


The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday on a rebound in technology stocks as signs of a COVID-19 vaccine sparked hopes of a quicker-than-expected economic recovery. Traders seemed to shift back into those stocks in today's trading, with Zoom, Amazon, and Apple posting notable gains on the day. The rising hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine had pushed investors to reorder which stocks they saw winning and losing, with investors opting to scoop up shares of beaten down value stocks in industries like energy and financials that were battered early on in the pandemic. Semiconductor stocks showed a substantial moved back to the upside on the day, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index spiking by 3.7 percent after plunging by 4.2 percent over the two previous sessions. However, the Dow declined after news crossed that New York would put restrictions on bars, restaurants and gyms as COVID-19 infections rose in the state. Overall trading activity was somewhat subdued due to the Veterans Day holiday, as banks and the bond markets were closed and no major US economic data was released.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday as data showed a larger than expected drop in US crude inventories in the week ended November 6. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a major draw in crude oil inventories of 5.1 million barrels last week, compared with street's expectations for a reduction of 913,000 barrels. The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum status report will be released on Thursday, due to the closure of the Federal Government on Wednesday, November 11.  Crude oil futures for December surged $0.09 or 0.2 percent to settle at $41.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude rose $0.21 to settle at $43.82 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Continuing previous session drubbing, Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Wednesday, on emergence of demand for the greenback from importers. Investors were cautiousness with rating agency ICRA stating that states are likely to cut capital outlay on infrastructure by up to 40 percent, with coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic severely impacting revenues of state governments, and additional expenditure towards healthcare and public welfare. On the global front, Sterling hit its highest level in more than two months versus the euro on Wednesday as investors were optimistic that a vaccine against COVID-19 would provide a lifeline to the UK economy and more hopeful about the chances of a Brexit deal. Finally, the rupee ended at 74.36, 18 paise weaker from its previous close of 74.18 on Tuesday.   


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyer in equity segment and net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9893.86 crore against gross selling of Rs 8470.54 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 420.93 crore with gross sales of Rs 604.59 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 72.56 crore.  


The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as investors switched back to technology stocks and away from economically sensitive sectors as they weighed COVID-19 vaccine progress against a virus surge and likely timing for a economic rebound. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday tracking mixed cures from Wall Street overnight. Indian markets extended gains for the eighth straight session to end at a record level on Wednesday led by pharma and metal stocks amid strong global cues. Today, the start of session is likely to be negative amid mixed cues from global markets. Investors will be eyeing the macro economic data -- industrial production and inflation data -- scheduled to be announced later in the day. Traders will be concerned with the RBI's statement that the GDP is likely to contract by 8.6 percent for the July-September period, which means India will enter into a recession for the first time in history in the first half of this fiscal with two successive quarters of negative growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic. There will be some cautiousness with rating agency ICRA's report that the aggregate debt of 12 major states is estimated to worsen significantly, and their capital spending might decline sharply because of lower-than-expected goods and services tax (GST) revenue and shortfall in Centre's devolution. It added that this could lead to a 1-2 per cent contraction in Q4FY21. However, some respite may come later in the day as marching on the mission of making in India, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Union Cabinet announced Rs 2 lakh crore of production linked incentives for 10 major manufacturing sectors. Traders may be taking encouragement as the Reserve Bank of India said the Indian economy could break out of contraction and return to positive growth by the third quarter of the current financial year if the growth momentum sustains. Some support may come with commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India's exports grew 22.5% on year to $6.75 billion in the first week of November. There will be some buzz in tractor manufacturing companies stocks with ratings agency Crisil's report that domestic tractor sales volume should recover faster than expected with the industry estimated to grow 10-12 per cent in the current financial year against earlier projection of one per cent de-growth. Aviation stocks will be in focus with Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri's statement that the cap on the number of domestic flights that Indian airlines are permitted to operate was increased from 60 per cent to 70 per cent of their pre-COVID levels. There will be some reaction in oil & gas sector stocks as OPEC said global oil demand will rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought because of rising coronavirus cases, hampering efforts by the group and its allies to support the market. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in action.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • Hero MotoCorp has launched the Xtreme 200S with BS-VI compliant engine priced at Rs 1.15 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi). 
  • SBI's board of directors have approved the divestment of 8,510 equity shares constituting 8.51 per cent of the bank's stake in UTI Trustee Company. 
  • Wipro has won a multi-year contract for software engineering services from ThoughtSpot. 
  • L&T construction arm -- L&T construction has secured orders from prestigious clients for two of its businesses.
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