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NSE Intra-day chart (04 May 2018)
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Market Commentary 07 May 2018
Markets likely to start slightly in red

 

Extending previous session's southward journey, Indian equity benchmarks ended the dismal day of trade with a cut of over half a percent on Friday. Sentiments remained downbeat since morning as markets after a negative start never looked confident and extended their southward journey to end below their crucial 35,000 (Sensex) and 10,650 (Nifty) levels. The domestic sentiments remained cautious with a report stating that bank deposit growth falls to a five-decade low to 6.7 percent in the fiscal year ended March 2018. Bankers said the reversal from the huge deposits post demonetisation and the steady movement of savings away from bank deposits has hit growth. Anxiety also remained on the street with the credit ratings agency, ICRA's latest report that the high quantum of non-performing asset (NPA) will restrict the overall bank credit growth to a moderate 7-8% in fiscal 2018-19, despite recapitalisation of public sector banks (PSBs) and private sector players upping their game with a 25 percent credit growth. It also said that India Inc will borrow more from cheaper sources abroad. Traders failed to take any sense of relief with report highlighting that private equity and venture capital investments in India reached $7.9 billion across 180 deals in January-March this year, the best first quarter since 2008, mainly driven by large transactions. Market participants shrugged off report that China has removed import duties on as many as 28 medicines, including all cancer drugs, from May 1, a move which would help India to export these pharmaceuticals to the neighbouring country. The investors also paid no heed towards the report stating that activity in India's services sector grew at the fastest pace in month of April, on the back of greater inflows of new work. According to the survey report, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index remained above the neutral mark of 50.0 in April, posting reading at 51.4, up from 50.3 in March. The Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index which measures both manufacturing and services too climbed to 51.9 in April from 50.8 in March. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 187.76 points or 0.53% to 34,915.38, while the CNX Nifty was down by 61.40 points or 0.57% to 10,618.25.

 

The US markets closed higher on Friday, with major indexes shaking off an early slide as technology stocks - notably Apple Inc. - rallied, overshadowing uncertainty over tense trade talks between the US and China and a weaker-than-expected rise in April nonfarm payrolls. Friday's gains were broad based, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors higher on the day. Tech was by far the biggest boost to markets, though, gaining 2%. Friday's gains weren't enough to push the Dow and S&P into positive territory for the week, with both posting 0.2% weekly declines. The Nasdaq turned positive for the five-session stretch, however, up 1.3%. On the economy front, the economy generated a solid 164,000 jobs in April to push the unemployment rate below 4% for the first time since Bill Clinton was president, a sign the surging labor market shows no signs ebbing. The increase in hiring fell short of the 188,000 forecast, but the shortfall was cushioned by upward revisions that show the US created more jobs in March than originally reported. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.9% after holding at 4.1% for six months in a row. Despite the ultra-tight jobs market, wages for American workers still aren't rising rapidly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 332.36 points or 1.39 percent to 24,262.51, the Nasdaq gained 121.466 points or 1.71 percent to 7,209.62, and the S&P 500 was up by 33.69 points or 1.28 percent to 2,663.42.

 

Crude oil futures to their highest since November 2014, picking up 2.4% for the week, as rising worries over the economic crisis in Venezuela and possible new sanctions against Iran increased the potential for tighter global crude supplies and sent prices back to their highest settlement since late 2014. Venezuela and Iran are both members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. An OPEC survey conducted by S&P Global Platts showed Friday that the group's crude production in April fell for a third straight month to a one-year low. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery jumped by $1.29 or 1.90 percent to settle at $69.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude gained $1.25 or 1.70 percent to settle at $74.87 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended considerably weaker against the US dollar on Friday, on the back of consistent demand for the greenback from state-run banks and importers. Traders remained concerned with ICRA's report highlighting that high quantum of non-performing asset (NPA) will restrict the overall bank credit growth to a moderate 7-8% in fiscal 2018-19, despite recapitalisation of public sector banks (PSBs) and private sector players upping their game with a 25 percent credit growth. Moreover, persistent fall in equity market together with dollar rose to a position of strength overseas added some extra pressure. Market participants shrugged off report that activity in India's dominant service sector accelerated in April thanks to a pickup in new business that encouraged firms to hire at the fastest pace in seven years. The Nikkei/IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a three-month high at 51.4 in April from March's 50.3, holding above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction for a second month. On the global front, dollar rose against most major currencies on Friday, heading for a third straight week of gains as traders counted down to the closely watched U.S. jobs report. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.87, 23 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.64 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5694.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 5783.87 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 852.12 crore with gross sales of Rs 813.18 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross selling was of Rs 1.24 crore against no buying.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday as investors reacted positively to the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment climbed by 164,000 jobs in April. Asian markets were trading mixed on Monday despite the strong showing on Wall Street as investors digested last week's trade talks and U.S. jobs numbers. Indian markets ended in red on Friday as traders remained on sidelines ahead of Karnataka state elections scheduled to be held on May 12. Today, the markets are likely to make flat-to-negative start as underlying sentiment may remain cautious amid rising oil prices and mixed Asian cues. Traders also keep an eye on macro data on industrial output and inflation. Traders will remain concern after Srini Raju, Member of the ISB Executive Board, cautioning against the possibility of trade imbalances if corrective measures are not taken, said India may have to shell out huge forex reserves in the changing economic order. However, traders will get some encouragement later in the day with ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada's statement that India's projected GDP growth of over 7 per cent for the current fiscal is amazingly fast and if this momentum is maintained the size of the economy can double within a decade. The country shouldn't worry about not achieving 8 per cent growth but focus on increasing domestic demand by reducing the income inequality, he said. Traders will also get some support with Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that the government is working on a strategy to promote services exports which have the potential to boost overall foreign shipments and economic growth. There will be some important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,618.25

10,579.75

10,678.60

BSE Sensex

34,915.38

34,773.14

35,132.08

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Vedanta 

160.87

281.65

276.87

288.57

Bharti Airtel

144.15

396.75

387.72

412.07

SBI

127.77

241.95

240.23

243.78

Power Grid

126.37

207.40

205.33

208.63

Yes Bank

122.42

345.10

340.28

353.83

 

  • Hero MotoCorp has sold 694,022 units in April 2018. 
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm - Jio has launched the world's first Artificial Intelligence based brand engagement platform - JioInteract. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India in collaboration with Bihar government has inaugurated the state's first Institute of Driving Training and Traffic Research. 
  • Bharti Airtel has added 84.02 lakh users in March 2018.
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