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NSE Intra-day chart (30 March 2016)
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Market Commentary 31 March 2016
Markets to get a cautious start of F&O expiry session


A session after displaying a distressing performance, Indian benchmark indices managed to pull through a scintillating performance by vivaciously rallying around two percentage points on Wednesday, thanks to strong global cues post US Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen's comment and fall in crude oil prices by upto 3%. Yellen stated that the rate of inflation in the US has not yet proven sustainable against the backdrop of looming global risks to the US economy and that the US central bank should proceed only cautiously to the policy adjustments. Besides, hopes of a rate cut by the RBI at its monetary policy review on April 5 also accelerated buying activity in the local markets. Sentiments got some support with Finance Minister's statement that he will reach out to the Congress again to persuade it to support the much delayed GST bill in second half of the Budget Session beginning next month. Appreciation in Indian rupee too aided sentiments amidst continued foreign fund inflows. On the global front, Asian markets ended firm on Wednesday, European stocks also rallied in early trade. Back home, the benchmark got off to a rollicking opening as investors were largely influenced by the supportive leads from Asian markets. The frontline indices soon gathered momentum and traded with over half a percent gains through the morning session of trade. Second half of the session saw the key gauges capitalize on the momentum further and spurt to session's highest levels in dying moments. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 438.12 points or 1.76% to 25338.58, while the CNX Nifty rallied 138.20 points or 1.82% to 7,735.20.


The US market closed higher on Wednesday, for a third session in a row following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record for the most up days in a month in six years. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams stated that the US economy remains on track for a gradual path of interest rate hikes and fears over the impact of a slowing global economy and bouts of financial volatility are overdone. Williams added that despite recent financial market volatility, the overall outlook for both the US and the global economy remains largely unchanged over the past few months. On the economy front, the private sector added 200,000 jobs in March, ADP reported, a modest deceleration from the prior month's revised 205,000. The increase in March was roughly in line with expectations. The small private-sector businesses added 86,000 jobs in March, medium businesses added 75,000 and large businesses added 39,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.55 points or 0.47 percent to 17,716.66, Nasdaq gained 22.67 points or 0.47 percent to 4,869.29 while, S&P 500 was up 8.94 points or 0.44 percent to 2,063.95.


Crude oil futures erased all their early gains to end modestly in green on Wednesday, after US government data showed crude inventories at all-time peaks again despite strong refinery runs. Crude prices earlier moved higher after US Energy Information Administration reported a modest build of 2.3 million barrels for the week ending on March 25, slightly below expectations for gains of 3.3 million. But lost their gains as, at 534.8 million barrels US crude stockpiles remained near historically-high levels. Earlier, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, two of OPEC's biggest exporters, had said they would resume production at the jointly operated 300,000-barrels-per-day Khafji field even with a meeting on the production freeze set for April 17. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery was tad higher by $0.10 or 0.26 percent to $38.38 a barrel after trading in a range of $38.16 and $39.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery closed at $40.10, up $0.25 or 0.60 percent on the ICE.


Extending its rising streak for the fourth day, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks amidst continued foreign fund inflows and gains in Asian currencies. The sentiment improved following the US Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen's comments. Besides smart rally in the local equity market also buttress the domestic currency. Further, hopes of a rate cut by the RBI at its monetary policy review on April 5 too supported domestic currency. On the global front, yen strengthened against the dollar after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen called for caution on raising interest rates, with the stronger yen weighing on Japan's exporters.  Finally, the rupee ended at 66.38, 16 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.54 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4667.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 4026.72 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 645.18 crore with gross sales of Rs 4997.33 crore.         


The US markets ended higher but were well off their day's high, still all the major averages ended the session at their best closing levels in about three months. The gains were aided by the release of a report from payroll processor ADP showing slightly stronger than expected US private sector job growth in the month of March. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some indices trading marginally in red, while others are inching toward their best month since October. The Indian markets vivaciously rallied in last session with major bourses gaining around two percent for the day, as the US Fed chief Yellen's comment fueled global rally in equity markets. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry day is likely to see a cautious start for the markets as the regional markets are trading mixed, while some volatility is expected in latter trade once traders starts settling and rolling out their final positions to the next series. Nifty which has been surging through the series may see expiry near 7750. Markets will get some support with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley stating that Australian future and super funds be exposed to India, as he called for increase in investment by Australia businesses in India as they can get better returns on their investment. The oil and gas sector will keep buzzing as the government has cut natural gas prices to $ 3.06 per million British thermal unit from current $ 3.82 from Friday, gas prices are revised every six months and the next change is due on April 1. There will be some action in infra stocks, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has notified some revisions to the external commercial borrowing (ECB) framework thereby allowing infrastructure firms to raise shorter-term ECBs. Now companies in infrastructure sector, non-banking financial companies-infrastructure finance companies (NBFC-IFCs), NBFCs-asset finance companies (NBFC-AFCs), holding companies and core investment companies (CICs) will also be eligible to raise ECB under Track 1 of the framework with minimum average maturity of 5 years.


Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex



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Tata Steel






  • Bharat Heavy Electricals has achieved one more milestone by successful commissioning a 250 MW coal-based thermal power plant in Bihar.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has entered the Japanese prescription market with the acquisition of 14 established prescription brands from Novartis AG and Novartis Pharma AG in Japan.
  • Tata Steel has commenced the production of 'Tata Ferroshots' at its Kalinganagar steel plant.
  • GAIL India, state-run gas utility firm has started drilling its first exploration well in an onland oil and gas block in Cambay basin in Gujarat.
  • Tata Motors, the country's largest automotive player, has entered into a tie-up with NDTV's auto venture Carandbike.Com for the online bookings of its upcoming hatchback Tiago.
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