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NSE Intra-day chart (29 November 2017)
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Market Commentary 30 November 2017
Markets to make a soft start of F&O expiry session


Indian equity benchmarks ended the choppy day of trade with marginal losses, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of November derivatives expiry and release of September-quarter GDP data tomorrow.  Sentiments also remained dampened with a private report stating that both goods and services tax (GST) collections as well as its compliance in the first four months since the rollout of the new tax regime remain well be below the target, and the situation is unlikely to improve in the near- term. Though, markets kept their head above water for most part of the day's trade with traders taking some encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement who called upon entrepreneurs from across the globe to make India their base for the world. He said that India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies and a happening place with immense opportunities in a number of areas. Some support also came with Meanwhile, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Dharmendra Pradhan made a strong case for inclusion of natural gas in the GST, saying that if polluting coal can be included, then the environment-friendly fuel certainly deserves a place in the new regime. However, profit booking in dying hour of trade dragged markets below their neutral lines to end with modest losses. Sentiments turned pessimistic with a foreign brokerage firm lowering India's GDP growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.6 percent from the previous 6.8 percent, citing that businesses were still adjusting to the new GST regime and there was limited room for fiscal support. Inflation is expected to edge up on higher commodity prices and stronger demand momentum, whilst the current account and fiscal deficits run the risk of re-widening. Besides, reports that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting and through the end of next year, too weighed sentiments. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 15.83 points or 0.05% to 33,602.76, while the CNX Nifty was down by 8.95 points or 0.09% to 10,361.30.

 

The US markets closed mostly lower on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new high even as the Nasdaq Composite logged its worst day in three months as a selloff in mega-cap technology shares, such as Facebook Inc., Apple Inc., and Amazon.com Inc., weighed on the tech-heavy index. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's last testimony before Congress, the Fed chairwoman was upbeat about the economic outlook and said inflation was likely to return to the 2% target. Yellen didn't say anything explicit about what the Fed will do at its meeting in two weeks. On the economy front, the US economy's pace of growth in the third quarter was raised to 3.3% from 3% under the government's latest revision to gross domestic product. The improvement in GDP was spearheaded by stronger business investment. Spending on equipment, especially in transportation-related areas, rose 10.4% instead of 8.6%. Firms have increased spending on ways to deliver goods to customers who order online and to move people around amid an increase in travel. They are also relying more on technology to boost production at a time when skilled workers are increasingly hard to find. The increase in inventories, meanwhile, was raised modestly to $39 billion. The Nasdaq lost 87.969 points or 1.27 percent to 6,824.39, the S&P 500 edged lower by 0.97 points or 0.04 percent to 2,626.07, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 103.97 points or 0.44 percent to 23,940.68. 

 

Crude oil futures continued their decline on Wednesday despite the report of another significant decline in US oil stockpiles. Traders were concerned with an unexpected build in product inventories ahead of the OPEC meeting. Meanwhile, Energy Information Agency (EIA) inventory report showed crude stockpiles fell more-than-estimated, but both gasoline and distillates supplies unexpectedly rose. Inventories of US crude fell by roughly 3.4 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 24. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels, while supplies of distillate unexpectedly rose by about 2.8 barrels. US crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 544,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery ended lower by $0.69 or 1.2 percent at $57.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was down by 0.81 percent to $62.73 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee pared some of early gains to end marginally stronger against dollar on Wednesday, due to some dollar demand from importers and corporates. Traders were taking support from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement who called upon entrepreneurs from across the globe to make India their base for the world. He said that India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies and a happening place with immense opportunities in a number of areas. This was the third consecutive session when the rupee traded higher against dollar. However, gains were capped with a foreign brokerage firm lowering India's GDP growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.6 percent from the previous 6.8 percent, citing that businesses were still adjusting to the new GST regime and there was limited room for fiscal support. On the global front, dollar held firm on Wednesday after Wall Street shot to record peaks amid signs of progress on US tax cuts. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.32, 9 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.41 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5114.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 4330.14 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1657.53 crore with gross sales of Rs 1690.83 crore.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in the last session and while the Dow climbed to a new record closing high, the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined sharply, as traders cashed in on recent strength among tech stocks. The Asian markets have made a soft start and some of the indices are down by over half a percent led by the Hong Kong market which is down by around a percent on slide in tech stocks, following the overnight slump in US tech stocks. The Indian markets once again declined in late hours to end modestly in red in the last session, as the traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of September-quarter GDP data. Today, the start of F&O series expiry session is likely to be in red on weak global cues and traders will be eyeing the dataprint for the September quarter GDP that will be announced later in the day, though it is expected that economic growth pace is likely to pick up in the three months ending in September, halting a five-quarter slide as businesses started to overcome teething troubles after the bumpy launch of a national sales tax. Traders will also be getting some support with Minister of State for Finance, Shiv Pratap Shukla's statement that by March 2018, GST will become so simple that people will have no issues. The steel stocks will be buzzing with a report from Moody's Investors Services which has said that profitability of Indian steel companies is likely to improve next year despite an increase in raw material prices. The rating agency said that among major steel-producing Asian countries, operating conditions will be most supportive in India because of robust domestic demand and protectionist measures, and despite an increase in raw material prices and new capacity. Export oriented stocks too will be in focus as the Finance Ministry has asked exporters to file GSTR 3B and table 6A of GSTR 1 on the GSTN portal and Shipping Bill(s) on the Customs EDI System, which are pre-requisites for sanction of payment.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10361.30

10340.48

10387.53

BSE Sensex

33602.76

33527.65

33703.34

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

123.85

314.85

312.67

316.67

NTPC

123.36

182.00

180.93

183.73

SBI

112.65

328.90

325.78

333.43

ITC

86.98

258.05

257.13

258.83

Axis Bank

63.87

549.50

543.47

558.87

  • Bharti Airtel has entered into a partnership with US-based online education and learning company Coursera.
  • Coal India is mulling to increase salary of its executives, which may cost the company about Rs 800 crore.
  • Infosys' product subsidiary - Infosys Finacle has launched the Finacle Trade Connect, a blockchain based trade finance solution for banks.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has inaugurated its new office in the Egyptian capital, its first in North Africa.
News Analysis