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NSE Intra-day chart (29 November 2016)
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Market Commentary 30 November 2016
Markets to make a cautious start ahead of Q2 GDP data

 

Indian benchmark indices extended their gains for yet another session on Tuesday, on account of fresh buying activities by both funds and retail investors amid mixed global cues. It turned out to be a rather volatile day of trade as what started on a promising note ended as a dismal show. Sentiments remained optimistic in thin trades triggered by the Commerce and industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the economy grew by 7.1% in the first half of 2016-17, though the central statistics office is yet to release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second (July-September) quarter. She added that the government has been taking various steps to boost industrial production and growth, which includes 'Make in India' and 'Startup India' initiatives, liberalisation of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) policy and development of industrial corridors. Following Wednesday's GDP data, attention will shift to a purchasing managers' index due Thursday that will offer a first assessment of the impact on manufacturing. Investors' morale also remained upbeat with the report indicating that the Reserve Bank of India will lower its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in its next month monetary policy meeting. While global uncertainties and rupee volatility suggest first quarter of 2017 is a better time to ease rates, the central bank may bring forward the rate cut to December to support growth and tap favourable inflation outlook. Meanwhile, Auto and consumer durables stocks gained on the expectation that a faster end to the demonetisation drive could revive sales. RBI on  November 28 said lenders had received Rs. 8.45 lakh crore ($123.05 billion) in deposits, absorbing a substantial amount of the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes that were declared worthless earlier this month. The amount deposited, announced by the RBI, raised hopes that the demonetisation process would end sooner than expected reducing what has been a key constraint for markets. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 43.84 points or 0.17% to 26394.01, while the CNX Nifty rose 15.25 points or 0.19% to 8,142.15. 

 

The US markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq touching a record, but the market failed to make much headway as oil futures slumped ahead of a key meeting of major crude producers. Oil prices dropped on signs that leading oil exporters were struggling to agree on a deal to cut production ahead of an OPEC meeting on Wednesday. Investors will also be watching data from retailers closely in the coming weeks for clues on how the holiday shopping season will turn out. There were encouraging reports on the economic front. The second reading of gross domestic product showed the economy grew at the fastest pace in over two years in the third quarter as consumers and government stepped up their spending and exports surged. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2% annual rate in the Commerce Department's second reading. That is the strongest pace since the second quarter of 2014. Consumer spending rose 2.8% in the quarter, stronger than the original estimate of 2.1% and the strongest rate since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 23.7 points or 0.12 percent to 19,121.60, Nasdaq was up 11.11 points or 0.21 percent to 5,379.92, while S&P 500 gained 2.94 points or 0.13 percent to 2,204.66.

 

Crude oil futures slumped again on Tuesday amid concerns that OPEC members will be unable to finalize an agreement on cutting production. There were also reports that Iran and Iraq are resisting pressure from Saudi Arabia to curtail oil output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet in Vienna on Wednesday aiming to implement a deal outlined in September to cut output by around 1 million barrels per day. Documents prepared for a ministerial OPEC meeting on Wednesday propose the group cut production by 1.2 million bpd from October levels. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery plunged by $1.85 or 3.9 percent to $45.23 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for January delivery ended higher by $1.87 or 3.9 percent at $46.37 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee appreciated against US dollar on account of fresh selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Sentiments got some support with the Commerce and industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the economy grew by 7.1% in the first half of 2016-17, though the central statistics office is yet to release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second (July-September) quarter. She added that the government has been taking various steps to boost industrial production and growth, which includes 'Make in India' and 'Startup India' initiatives, liberalisation of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) policy and development of industrial corridors. Investors' morale also remained upbeat with the report indicating that the Reserve Bank of India will lower its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in its next month monetary policy meeting. On the global front, yen weakened, set for its worst month in almost seven years, as speculation U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will pursue reflationary policies spurred bets that monetary tightening will accelerate. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.66, 10 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.76 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4037.25 crore against gross sell of Rs 5404.10 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 268.29 crore with gross sales of Rs 3790.54 crore.

 

The US markets despite paring most of their gains managed a positive close in last session; the pullback from the highs was mainly due to uncertainty ahead of the highly anticipated OPEC meeting on Wednesday. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start, though the trade was cautious due to uncertainty ahead of the highly anticipated OPEC meeting in Vienna later in the day. Gains in Asian property shares outweighed losses among commodity producers.  The Indian markets slipped in last leg of trade but managed a modestly positive close in last session. Today, the start is likely to be cautious but in green and traders will be eyeing the second quarter GDP data slated to be announced later in the day. The general expectation is that economic growth accelerated to 7.5 per cent in the September quarter from 7.1 per cent in the June quarter but lower than 7.9 per cent growth posted for the March quarter. There will be some respite to India Inc with Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to allow bank customers to withdraw amount over and above the weekly limit provided the deposits had been made in legal tender. Also, a private report has said that government is expected to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3 percent for the next financial year on account of additional revenue from penalty on black money and deposits under the income disclosure. However, there will be some cautiousness too, with Fitch Ratings lowering India's GDP growth forecast for this fiscal to 6.9 per cent from 7.4 per cent, saying there will be "temporary disruptions" to economic activity post demonetisation. The PSU oil marketing companies will be in action as global oil prices dropped nearly 4 per cent amid hints that that oil exporters were struggling to agree on a deal to slash production.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8,142.15

8,114.78

8,183.43

BSE Sensex

26,394.01

26,303.42

26,535.83

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

293.91

255.45

253.37

258.47

Idea

183.31

79.25

77.93

80.13

SBI

126.57

252.70

250.97

255.47

Hindalco

98.19

175.40

173.18

179.23

ITC

 86.14

231.05

228.98

234.38

  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has launched BromSite (bromfenac ophthalmic solution) 0.075% in the US market.
  • ICICI Bank is aiming to add 100 villages in as many days to create a digital ecosystem for the transaction and commercial activities in the far-flung areas of the country.
  • Tata Steel has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Odisha for constructing 30 Model Schools in different non-educationally backward blocks in Odisha.
  • Tata Power Delhi Distribution, a joint venture of Tata Power and the Government of Delhi, has inaugurated two any time water RO plants at Vishwavidyalaya and Jahangirpuri metro stations.
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has raised Rs 1300 crore by allotment of 13,000 rated, listed, Secured, Taxable, Redeemable, Non-Convertible Debentures of the face value of Rs 10 lakh each on private placement basis.  
News Analysis