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NSE Intra-day chart (26 April 2019)
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Market Commentary 30 April 2019
Markets to make a weak start amid lackluster cues from Asian peers


Equity bourses bounced back on last trading day of the week, with Sensex and Nifty reclaiming their crucial psychological levels of 39,000 and 11,750, respectively. The markets made a firm start of the day, aided by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest data report that bank credit rose by 14.19% to Rs 96.45 lakh crore, while deposits grew 10.60% to Rs 125.30 lakh crore in the first fortnight ended on April 12. In the year ago fortnight, deposits were at Rs 113.29 lakh crore and advances stood at Rs 84.46 lakh crore. Adding comfort among the investors, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the country's apex bank is strengthening its surveillance framework in the face of growing significance of FinTech innovations and their interface with the financial sector. He said that recent developments in FinTech have given a fresh impetus to financial inclusion process in the country and policy efforts have been directed in recent years to put in place a state of the art national payments infrastructure and technology platform. Markets rallied further in late hours to settle near their intraday high points, on the back of heavy buying done by traders. Trading sentiments on the street got improved with IBBI Chairperson M S Sahoo's statement that resolution plans under IBC have yielded 200 per cent of liquidation value for creditors in addition to rescuing viable firms. He also noted that this is significantly better as compared to the previous regime which yielded a recovery of 25 per cent for creditors through a process which took about five years and entailed a cost of 9 per cent. Markets participants also remained positive with a private report stating that private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments hit an all-time high of $7 billion in March, as high-voltage action by global investors like Canada's Brookfield and Singapore's GIC on street continues unabated despite the ongoing general elections. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 336.47 points or 0.87% to 39,067.33, while the CNX Nifty was up by 112.85 points or 0.97% to 11,754.65.


The US markets ended marginally higher on Monday as traders seemed reluctant to make more significant moves ahead of the announcement of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although the accompanying statement and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference are still likely to attract attention. Traders are also likely to keep a close eye on the Labor Department's monthly jobs report scheduled to be released on Friday. Street expects the report to show an increase of about 180,000 jobs in April compared to the addition of 196,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.8 percent. Besides, reports on consumer confidence, pending home sales, and manufacturing and service sector activity may also impact trading in the coming days. On the economic front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed a smaller than expected uptick in US personal income in the month of March, although the report also showed a significant increase in personal spending during the month. The Commerce Department said personal income inched up by 0.1 percent in March after edging up by 0.2 percent in February. Street had expected income to climb by 0.4 percent. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, crept up by less than a tenth of a percent in March after ticking up by 0.1 percent in February. Meanwhile, the report said personal spending jumped by 0.9 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February and rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in January. The Commerce Department provided new data for both February and March in this month's report due to the impact of the recent government shutdown. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 11.06 points or 0.04 percent to 26554.39, Nasdaq added 15.45 points or 0.19 percent to 8161.85 and S&P 500 was up by 3.15 points or 0.11 percent to 2943.03.


Crude oil futures ended marginally higher on Monday. However, Brent crude settled lower on uncertainty surrounds the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) next move in the wake of US President Donald Trump's latest call on the Saudis and their allies to boost crude production. The Saudis may have some difficulty in finding an incentive to raise output. The Saudis need an oil price of about $85 a barrel to balance its budget this year, up from a forecast of $73 in September. Benchmark crude oil futures for June gained 20 cents or 0.3 percent to settle at $63.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, June Brent crude declined 11 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $72.04 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Reversing its two-session fall, the rupee bounced back to end higher against the US currency on Friday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Sentiments were optimistic with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showing that bank credit rose by 14.19 percent to Rs 96.45 lakh crore while deposits grew 10.60 percent to Rs 125.30 lakh crore in the first fortnight ended on April 12. In the year ago fortnight, deposits were at Rs 113.29 lakh crore and advances stood at Rs 84.46 lakh crore. The dollar losing muscle against other currencies overseas along with an encouraging rally in domestic equities too supported the rupee recovery momentum. On the global front, euro hovered near its weakest level since May 2017 on Friday as traders waited to see whether United States GDP numbers due out later will reinforce signs of economic strength and send the dollar surging even higher. Finally, the rupee ended at 70.02, 23 paise stronger from its previous close of 70.25 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10352.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 6497.90 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 664.94 crore with gross sales of Rs 812.03 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.97 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.35 crore.


The US markets ended marginally higher on Monday buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data and a largely positive earnings. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Tuesday as investors await a US Federal Reserve policy decision for clues of whether it will continue to take a patient approach to interest rate policy. Indian markets before going for long weekend settled Friday's trading session in green territory, with gains of around a percent each, on the back of rally in metal banking and Oil & Gas stocks amid easing global crude oil prices. Markets remain closed on Monday on account of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 in Maharashtra. Today, the start of last trading day of the month is likely to be weak amid lackluster cues from Asian peers. There will be cautiousness with the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) statement that pre-monsoon rainfall from March to April, a phenomenon critical to agriculture in some parts of the country, has recorded 27 per cent deficiency. The IMD recorded 43.3 millimetres of rainfall across the country from March 1 to April 24 as against the normal precipitation of 59.6 millimetres. This was 27 per cent less of the Long Period Average (LPA). Traders will also be concerned about a private report stating that the decline in economic growth momentum in October-December quarter of FY19 is likely to continue. As per the report, subdued consumption demand and election related uncertainty is expected to weigh on India's industrial production. However, traders may take some support later in the day with a report that foreign investors were net buyers in the Indian capital markets for the third straight month in April, pouring in Rs 17,219 crore on favourable macroeconomic conditions and ample liquidity. Some support may also come with union minister Suresh Prabhu stating that India is working on district-based developmental model to achieve aggregate growth. For this, six districts have been selected in different parts of the country. Meanwhile, India has notified the inter-governmental agreement with the US for exchange of country-by-country (CbC) reports on multinational companies regarding income allocation and taxes paid in order to help check cross-border tax evasion. Besides, the Model Code of Conduct for the Lok Sabha polls is unlikely to have any bearing on issuance of a revised framework for resolution of stressed assets by the Reserve Bank and the guidelines are expected to be announced before May 23. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.


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