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NSE Intra-day chart (29 January 2018)
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Market Commentary 30 January 2018
Markets to make sluggish start on weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks ended at fresh record high levels on Monday, after a government report predicted growth would accelerate in the coming fiscal year. Markets started the session with a gap-up opening and traded firmly throughout the day as traders remained optimistic after the economic survey released earlier in the day projected economic growth would be 7.0-7.5% in the year starting in April, up from a projected 6.75% for the current fiscal year. But the survey also noted a pause in general government fiscal consolidation relative to 2016-17 cannot be ruled out, sending benchmark 10-year bond yields up 4 basis points to 7.52% from its previous close. It added that, gross value added is likely to grow at 6.1% in FY18 against 6.6% in FY17 and Industry growth is likely to be at 4.4% for the current fiscal year. Traders also took some encouragement with the government expecting tax collections to improve in the coming months as measures to raise compliance have begun to show results. The total collections for December rose to Rs 86,703 crore, as on January 24. GST receipts had slipped to Rs 80,808 crore in November from more than Rs 83,000 crore in October and over Rs 92,000 crore in September. Some support also came with report that the share of Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) in domestic capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) has jumped to a six-month high of over Rs 1.5 lakh crore at the end of December after declining in the month of November, despite stringent norms put in place by markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to check their misuse. This is the highest level since June when the cumulative value of such investments stood at Rs 1.65 lakh crore. Separately, a private report enlightened that the government is expected to continue its fiscal consolidation at a slower pace in the ensuing budget with a fiscal deficit target of 3.2% of GDP for 2018-19. The street shrugged off the private report that India's factory output growth in December 2017 is projected to come down to 5.5-6%, from a 17-month high of 8.4% in November last year. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 232.81 points or 0.65% to 36283.25, while the CNX Nifty was up by 60.75 points or 0.55% to 11130.40.


The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, with the Dow and the S&P 500 having their worst day this year, as the appetite for equities was dampened by a pickup in borrowing costs. After last week's gains, traders appeared to be pausing and awaiting a number of potentially market-moving events over the next several days. US government debt yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting its highest level in almost four years, while the US dollar recovered somewhat from last week's turbulence, prompted by conflicting comments from the Trump administration at Davos. On the economy front, consumer spending climbed 0.4% in December, capping off the biggest increase in household buying since 2011. Incomes rose 0.4% in December and advanced 3.1% for the full year. But the gain was a much smaller 1.2% if inflation is taken into account - the lowest reading since 2010. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 177.23 points or 0.67 percent to 26,439.48, the Nasdaq lost 39.267 points or 0.52 percent to 7,466.50, and the S&P 500 edged lower by 19.34 points or 0.67 percent to 2,853.53.     


Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday amid indications that the U.S. production will be ramped up. The number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil climbed by 12 at 759 this week, as U.S. companies want to take advantage of oil prices at their highest in four years. Oil prices also edged lower due to a stronger dollar. The dollar continued to rebound versus major rivals ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, Iraq's oil minister said in London that the oil market was improving, and that the country would comply with OPEC output cuts even though it is trying to increase its oil export capacity. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery gained by 58 cents or 0.9% at $ 65.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery was up by $1.06 or 1.5% to $69.46 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee ended marginally lower against US dollar on Monday, due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Sentiments remained subdued with the private report stating that India's factory output growth in December 2017 is projected to come down to 5.5-6%, from a 17-month high of 8.4% in November last year. Moreover, the domestic currency was also weighed down by dollar's strengthen against some other currencies overseas. However, losses were limited as some support came after the economic survey released earlier in the day projected economic growth would be 7.0-7.5% in the year starting in April, up from a projected 6.75% for the current fiscal year. On the global front, dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Monday, helped by rising bond yields and a week packed with US data starting with a central bank policy decision, though the broader outlook remained murky for the greenback. Finally, the rupee ended at 63.58, 4 paise weaker from its previous close of 63.54 on Thursday.  


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9217.57 crore against gross selling of Rs 7871.36 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1302.28 crore with gross sales of Rs 346.11 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.36 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Monday after the 10-year treasury yield shot higher, raising concerns higher interest rates would snuff out the bull market. Selling pressure was somewhat subdued, however, with traders reluctant to sell stocks and miss out on any further upside. Asian markets were trading in red terrain in early deals on Tuesday, tracking declines seen on the Wall Street in the previous session. Japanese market edged lower on stronger yen denting investor sentiment. Investors also digested mixed local economic data. Indian equity benchmarks ended at fresh record highs after finance minister Arun Jaitley, presenting Economic Survey 2017-18, stated that the Indian economy is expected to expand at 7-7.5% in the next financial year, 2018-19. Today, the start is likely to be on the negative side, tracking weak global cues amid concerns over valuations after recent strong gains. The focus will remain on upcoming budget as this will be the last full year budget of the government before next year's Lok Sabha election. However, some optimism may come later in the day with report that the Securities and Exchanges Board of India (SEBI) may tighten net worth norms, bring in new shareholding rules and ease directorship conditions for stock exchanges, depositories and clearing corporations. Traders will also get some solace with chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian's statement that there is robust and broad-based revival in the Indian economy that coexists with macroeconomic challenges. Traders may also draw some support from Economic Survey stating that measures to curb black money and encourage tax formalisation, including demonetisation and GST, have increased personal income-tax collections substantially. From about 2% of GDP between 2013-14 and 2015-16, they are likely to rise to 2.3% of GDP in 2017-18, a historic high. There will be lots of important earnings announcements to keep the market buzzing for the day.

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