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NSE Intra-day chart (26 October 2018)
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Market Commentary 29 October 2018
Markets to make cautious start amid mixed Asian cues


Indian equity benchmarks ended the last trading day of the week on lackluster note with the losses of around 1 percent each. The start of trading day was sluggish, impacted by widening Fiscal deficit data. The central government's fiscal deficit widened in the first half (H1) of current fiscal year (2018-19). Fiscal deficit was 95.3% of the Budget Estimate (BE) in the first six months (April-September) of FY19, mainly on account of slow growth in revenue collections. The street also got cautious with a private report stating that India's tight money conditions and fears of a contagion following a debt crisis at a local lender dented demand and put a muzzle on animal spirits in the world's fastest-growing major economy. Adding some anxiety among the traders, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) imposed a total penalty of Rs 70 lakh on 10 entities for indulging in manipulative trade in the shares of Shree Global Tradefin. Traders took note of India ratings' report that the rupee may average at 69.79 to the dollar in the second half, down 8.3% from the first half if the monetary authority props it up by mobilising at least $30 billion from NRIs as it has done in 2013. It added that the rupee is the worst-performing emerging market currency losing over 15% year-to-date. The indices extended the losses in the last hours of the trade to settle near their intraday low points, tracking weak European markets. Sentiment remained pessimistic, as the provisional data from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 1495.71 crore on October 25, 2018. Investors paid no heed towards Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) Alok Chaturvedi's statement that the commerce ministry is working on a comprehensive strategy and considering incentives for exporters with a view to boost the country's outbound shipments. He also said that the exports, which recorded about 10% growth in 2017-18 to over $300 billion, is expected to reach $330-340 billion this fiscal. The market participants even failed to take any sense of relief with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that India offers unprecedented employment and entrepreneurial opportunities. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 340.78 points or 1.01% to 33,349.31, while the CNX Nifty was down by 94.90 points or 0.94% to 10,030.00.


The US markets ended the Friday's trade significantly lower with major indices losing around two percentage points amid a negative reaction to corporate results from some big-name companies after upbeat results from companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Twitter (TWTR) contributed to the jump on Thursday. Traders paid no heed towards report from the Commerce Department showing stronger than expected US economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product advanced by 3.5 percent in the third quarter after surging up by 4.2 percent in the second quarter. Traders had expected GDP growth to slow to 3.3 percent. The slowdown in the pace of growth in the third quarter came after the jump in the second quarter represented the fastest growth since a 4.9 percent spike in the third quarter of 2014. On the inflation front, the Commerce Department said its reading on core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, showed price growth slowed to 1.6 percent in the third quarter from 2.1 percent in the second quarter. A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment deteriorated by slightly more than initially estimated in the month of October. The report said the consumer sentiment index for October was downwardly revised to 98.6 from the preliminary reading of 99.0. The street had expected the consumer sentiment index to be unrevised at 99.0, which was still down from 100.1 in September. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 296.24 points or 1.19 percent to 24688.31, Nasdaq tumbled 151.12 points or 2.07 percent to 7167.21 and S&P 500 was down by 46.88 points or 1.76 percent to 2658.69.


Extending winning streak for third straight day, Crude oil futures settled modestly higher on Friday, thanks to some bargain hunting after recent losses and on hopes OPEC may resort to some production cuts towards the end of this year. Saudi OPEC governor Adeeb Al-Aama said the oil market could shift into oversupply in the last quarter of the year and that OPEC may have to return to oil production cuts. However, oil prices still posted a third weekly loss amid speculation that demand for oil will drop in the near term with the outlook for global economic growth rather dim, given the likely impact of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, geopolitical worries and corporate earnings concerns. Benchmark crude oil futures for December gained 26 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $67.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude was up by 73 cents or nearly 1 percent to settle at $77.62 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.


Falling for the second consecutive session, Indian rupee depreciated against dollar on Friday, on increased demand for the US currency from importers. Sentiments remained weak with the Controller General of Accounts' (CGA) data showing that the fiscal deficit of the Central government has widened in the first half of 2018-19 to 95.3% of the Budget Estimate (BE), mainly on account of slow growth in revenue collections. The deficit was at 91.3% of BE at September-end of the last financial year. Some cautiousness also crept in with a private report stating that India's tight money conditions and fears of a contagion following a debt crisis at a local lender dented demand and put a muzzle on animal spirits in the world's fastest-growing major economy. Moreover, weakness in local stocks, which slipped for a second-straight session, also weighed on the rupee. On the global front, dollar rose on Friday, as investors waited to see if US economic growth figures do anything to interrupt its months of strength. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.47, 20 paise weaker from its previous close of 73.27 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6712.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 8045.09 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1600.53 crore with gross sales of Rs 364.46 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.13 crore against no selling.


The US markets ended sharply lower on Friday on disappointing results from a handful of megacap companies amid slow down in global growth. Asian markets were trading mixed on Monday as sentiment remained fragile amid heightened worries about a slowdown in global economic growth and corporate earnings. Extending losses for second straight session, Indian markets ended sharply lower on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty settling over seven-month lows as weak global cues coupled with disappointing earnings releases dented investors sentiments. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start of the new week amid mixed global cues. There will be some concern with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showing that the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $942 million to $393.523 billion in the week to October 19 on account of a fall in foreign currency assets. In the previous week, the reserves had seen a steep fall of $5.14 billion to reach $394.465 billion. However, some support may come with Union Minister of Commerce and Industry and Civil Aviation Suresh Prabhu's statement that country's exports rose by 9.8% in the financial year 2017-18, which is the highest rate of growth in last six years. He added that this positive growth in exports has taken place at a time when there is a lot of negative headwinds globally. Traders may take note of the RBI's statement that it will inject Rs 400 billion into the system in November through a purchase of government securities as it looks to meet festive season demand for funds. Meanwhile, the government expects bad loan recoveries to exceed Rs 1.80 lakh crore target for the current financial year, enthused by the impact of new insolvency and bankruptcy law. Moreover, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman Bibek Debroy said the current four-slab Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate structure is likely to be reduced to three as the process of rationalising India's new indirect tax regime proceeds further. There will be some buzz in banking sector stocks with the RBI's data showing that Bank credit increased by 14.35% to Rs 89.93 lakh crore in the fortnight ended October 12, while the deposits rose by 8.86% to Rs 117.85 lakh crore. sugar sector stocks will be in focus as over 400 sugar producers and intermediaries are congregating on October 29, to evolve strategies to boost India's sweetener exports in the current crushing season which began in October.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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NSE Nifty




BSE Sensex





Nifty Top volumes




Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank




















Tata Motors






  • Yes Bank has reported 3.79% fall in its net profit at Rs 964.70 crore for Q2FY19 as compared to Rs 1,002.73 crore for Q2FY18. 
  • JSW Steel planning to raise up to Rs 5,000 crore through a rights issue, so as to tie the funding in place to acquire bankrupt Bhushan Power and Steel. 
  • Bajaj Finance has raised funds aggregating to Rs 425 crore via private placement. 
  • ITC has reported a rise of 4.82% in its net profit at Rs 2,954.67 crore for Q2FY19 as compared to Rs 2,818.68 crore for Q2FY18.
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