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NSE Intra-day chart (28 July 2016)
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Market Commentary 29 July 2016
Markets to consolidate on cautious global cues


Indian equity indices showcased a strong performance, outclassing indices around the world by vivaciously rallying by over half a percent in the session and settling above the psychological 8,650 (Nifty) and 28,200 (Sensex) levels. Investors continued to build hefty positions across the board as sentiments got a boost on hopes that the long-awaited GST Bill may be passed in the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament after the Cabinet on Wednesday cleared changes in the Constitutional Amendment bill. By doing away with the 1 per cent inter-state tax over and above the GST rate, the government has met one of the three key demands over which Opposition Congress has been blocking the Bill in the Upper House. Investors' morale also remained upbeat as the US Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates at ultra-low level after the conclusion of a two-day monetary policy meeting. The ultra-loose monetary policy in the US has encouraged heavy investment in higher-yielding emerging markets like India. Besides, the strengthening rupee against the dollar and short-covering by participants with Thursday being the last trading session of the July series of derivative contracts also supported the up move.  Some support also came with global rating agency Crisil's report that India's GDP growth could rise to 7.9 per cent because of good monsoon so far, with agriculture expected to grow by 4 per cent and consumer price inflation likely to be restricted to 5 per cent in 2016-2017. On the global front, shares in Japan dragged the Asian markets lower on Thursday, while European stocks slipped in early trade. Back home, the benchmark got off to an optimistic opening, shrugging the sluggish sentiments prevailing in Asian markets as the Federal Reserve left the door open for a US interest rate hike this year. The frontline indices soon gathered momentum and traded with over quarter percent gains through the morning session of trade. Second half of the session saw the key gauges capitalize on the momentum further and spurt to session's highest levels in dying hour. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 184.29 points or 0.66% to 28208.62, while the CNX Nifty rose by 50.50 points or 0.59% to 8,666.30.


The US markets closed mostly higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logging modest gains following better-than-expected quarterly results, which helped to offset losses in telecom and energy stocks. Stocks muted moves come a day after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged but hinted at a possible rate rise as soon as September. On the economy front, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week stretching from July 17 to July 23 rose by 14,000 to 266,000 but remained extremely low, reflecting a still-growing economy in which companies are hiring at a steady clip. Claims are sometimes elevated in July, a time of the year when automakers traditionally shut plants to retool and many workers are eligible for temporary benefits. Meanwhile, the US advance June goods trade deficit came in at $63.3 billion, widening from the revised $61.1 billion trade gap reported a month earlier. Both import and exports grew in June with imports rising faster. Imports rose $3.3 billion to $183.5 billion while exports rose $1.1 billion to $120.2 billion. The advanced report excludes services, a category that tends to work in the US's favor. The Nasdaq added 15.17 points or 0.30 percent to 5,154.98, S&P 500 gained 3.48 points or 0.16 percent to 2,170.06, while Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 15.82 points or 0.09 percent to 18,456.35.


Crude oil futures extend the fall on Thursday, officially entering into the bear market mid demand concerns and speculation the global supply glut will worsen. US crude futures have plunged over 20% for the month, after recent data provided indications of rising stockpiles, swelling rig counts and a spike in production. Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery dropped $0.76 or 1.81 percent to close at $41.16 a barrel after trading in a range of $41.05 and $42.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for October delivery declined by $0.67 or 1.53 percent to $43.24 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee strengthened for third consecutive session on Thursday on the back of strength in local equities. Besides, dollar selling by exporters and banks amidst sustained capital inflows also bolstered Indian currency. The rupee sentiment was also boosted as the dollar slipped against other currencies overseas as the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Some support also came with global rating agency Crisil's report that India's GDP growth could rise to 7.9 per cent because of good monsoon so far, with agriculture expected to grow by 4 per cent and consumer price inflation likely to be restricted to 5 per cent in 2016-2017. On the global front, yen gained against dollar on Thursday on speculation that the Bank of Japan won't deliver radical stimulus this week. Finally, the rupee ended 67.03, 12 paise stronger from its previous close at 67.15 on Wednesday


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4890.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 4415.24 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1808.04 crore with gross sales of Rs 1883.34 crore.


The US markets continued their sluggish trade for the third straight session and made another mixed close in last session, as traders reacted to the release of a slew of quarterly results from big-name companies. The Asian markets have made a mixed start, with some of the indices trading marginally in red ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy announcement scheduled today, while the oil headed for its biggest monthly decline in a year. The Indian markets surged in last session on short covering, snapping the July series on a strong note with gains of over 4.5% for the series. Today, the start of the new series is likely to be cautious on mixed global cues. However, traders will be getting some support with efforts to hammer out a consensus on the Goods and Services Tax bill gathering momentum. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanyam held several rounds of talks with leaders from opposition parties. Congress the main opposition described the exercise as "constructive and positive" and the bill is likely to be abled in the Rajya Sabha next week. Meanwhile, Niti Aayog has batted for inclusion of more experts in the government and placing the long-term vision and strategy documents in the public domain for extensive discussion. The body has been mandated to come up with a 15-year vision document for a period up to 2030, which will be co-terminus with sustainable development goals. There will be some buzz in the sugar stocks, as the government is mulling imposing stock limit for sugar millers and restricting domestic sales by fixing quota on each mill to tame sweetener's retail prices. There will be lots of earnings announcements to keep the markets buzzing.


                                Support and Resistance: CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex


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  • Asian Paints has reported 17.22% rise in its net profit at Rs 501.18 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 as compared to Rs 427.54 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • HDFC Bank has launched a skills training initiative in Meghalaya as part of its corporate social responsibility.
  • Maruti Suzuki India's - new automotive sales channel - NEXA, has completed one year of operations.
  • Bharti Airtel has reported 30.29% fall in its net profit at Rs 1427.50 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2016 as compared to Rs 2047.80 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries along with its subsidiaries or associate companies has entered into a licensing agreement with Almirall for development and commercialization of tildrakizumab for psoriasis in Europe.
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