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NSE Intra-day chart (28 March 2017)
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Market Commentary 29 March 2017
Markets to extend gains with a positive start

It turned out to be a stable day for the Indian benchmark indices, which climbed well over half a percent point and managed to end above the crucial support levels. Investors remained optimistic on hopes that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will be implemented on time. The government introduced the supporting legislation for the GST in Parliament on Monday, reinforcing expectations that it would make the July 1 deadline for the roll-out of this singular tax reform. According to Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia, GST will not only usher in a transparent tax system thereby reducing cascading of taxes, but will also result in reduction of prices for consumers and broaden the tax base in the country. Investors got further confidence with the report that manufacturing activity improved in March after a three months of decline, while various government measures are likely to push up activity in the infrastructure sector going forward. The yearly SBI Composite Index, one of leading indicator for manufacturing activity in the Indian economy, bounced back to above 50-mark level to 50.3 after 3-months of decline. The report also noted that going by the findings, index of industrial production (IIP) growth may continue to be in the positive territory in February and March, this year. However, gains remained capped with the report that India will face a below normal rainfall during the June to September south-west monsoon season. About 70% of India's rainfall happens in this period and irrigates almost half of India's farmland, being of particular importance for Kharif crops. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 172.37 points or 0.59% to 29409.52, while the CNX Nifty was up by 55.60 points or 0.61% to 9,100.80.


The US markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapping its eight-day losing streak, as investors' cheered better-than-expected economic data. Attracting the most attention was a reading of consumer confidence in March, which soared to the highest level in more than 16 years. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index leapt to 125.6 in March from 116.1 in February. Consumer confidence has taken off since the election of President Donald Trump, on the prospect of lower taxes and more infrastructure spending. Confidence has yet to be impacted by Congress's inability so far to enact the president's ambitions. The cutoff data for responses was March 16, before Republicans were forced to scrap a vote on repealing and replacing Obamacare.  Additionally, an early look at US trade patterns in February shows a nearly 6% drop in the nation's trade deficit, reversing a big increase in the prior month. The trade gap in goods - services is excluded - fell to $64.8 billion in February from $68.8 billion in January. Wholesale inventories, meanwhile, jumped 0.4% in February and retail inventories also rose 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 150.52 points or 0.73 percent to 20,701.50, Nasdaq was up 34.77 points or 0.60 percent to 5,875.14, while S&P 500 gained 16.98 points or 0.73 percent to 2,358.57. 


Crude oil futures snapping their long losing streak finally moved higher on Tuesday on reports that that Libya halted the pipeline from its biggest field, while comments from officials suggesting OPEC could extend its current deal beyond June, too lifted sentiment for the traders. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, said a global deal aimed at reducing the glut in supply is likely to be extended beyond June but that time is needed to discuss the subject. Armed factions at the western Libyan oil fields of Sharara and Wafa blocked production, reducing output by 252,000 barrels per day (bpd), about a third of production. The OPEC member will see considerable output decline due to armed protests. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery moved higher by $0.64 or 1.3% to $48.37 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended higher by $0.55 at $51.44 on the ICE.


The Indian money markets remained closed on Tuesday on account of a local holiday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5359.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 4776.19 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1472.39 crore with gross sales of Rs 557.66 crore.


The US markets bounced back in last session, with the Dow snapping an eight-session losing streak, following the release of a report from the Conference Board showing an unexpected improvement in consumer confidence in the month of March. The Asian markets have made a mixed start with some indices trading marginally in red, though other markets are up on rekindled optimism in the strength of the US economy after rise in consumer confidence. The Indian markets surged in last session on good global cues and after the government introduced four bills on the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the lower house of parliament, paving the way for its implementation from July 1. Today, the start of the penultimate session of the F&O series expiry is likely to be in green and some upmove can be seen in early deals, however trade may turn volatile latter in the day owing to series expiry next day. Traders will be eyeing the parliament proceedings too, where the government has listed the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bills for discussion and passage in the Lok Sabha today. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley terming the GST bill revolutionary hoped all the political parties would pass the related bills through consensus in the current session of Parliament. Meanwhile, the government will borrow from markets about Rs 3.72 lakh crore in the first half of next fiscal beginning April, which is 64 percent of the borrowing target for full financial year. The Centre would also issue treasury bills worth Rs 26,000 crore in the first half of the fiscal. There will be some buzz in the steel sector stocks on report that in the last nine months, steel exports from India increased 77 per cent to 6.62 mt while imports fell by 65 per cent to 6.59 mt, turning India a net exporter.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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