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NSE Intra-day chart (27 November 2017)
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Market Commentary 28 November 2017
Markets to make a somber start on sluggish global cues

Recovery which emerged in last leg of trade mainly helped Indian equity benchmarks to end slightly in green terrain on Monday. Markets made a negative start to the crucial week of F&O expiry and traded mostly in red throughout the session, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of GDP and PMI data for the manufacturing sector due later this week. Sentiments also remained dampened with Standard & Poor's decision of retaining its sovereign rating for India at BBB- with a stable outlook, dashing hopes of another upgrade after rival Moody's lifted its rating by a notch after a gap of nearly 14 years. Traders also remained concerned with industry body Assocham's statement that inflation would remain a key concern for the RBI and the government, dimming hopes of a cut in interest rates. The chamber observed that as uncertainty and apprehension loom over crude oil prices and vegetables, mainly on the back of rising retail prices of onion and tomatoes, it is disrupting household budgets. However, markets took U-turn from intraday lows in final hour of trade and staged splendid recovery to enter into green, as traders took some solace with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the time has come for consolidation of reforms, including GST, bankruptcy code and benami law, initiated by the Modi government in the last 42 months to ensure that the steps deliver the 'desired fruits'. Markets participants also get some comfort after Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg expressed optimism with government's various reforms like fiscal consolidation drive and note ban and said that India's second quarter (Q2) growth will be far better than the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year. Besides, a foreign brokerage firm has time and again reiterated its bullishness on the Indian economy, saying that the country is slated to see tremendous growth in the near future. It expects the second quarter India's Q2 GDP number growth to be around 6.5%, which will confirm a turn in the growth environment. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 45.20 points or 0.13% to 33,724.44, while the CNX Nifty was up by 9.85 points or 0.09% to 10,399.55.


The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, after touching intraday records as an early rally in retail shares largely fizzled. However, the blue-chip Dow bucked the weak trend to eke out modest gain. Investors are also watching for developments surrounding the Republican tax plan, with a Senate vote on proposed tax changes expected this week - perhaps as early as Tuesday. On the economy front, new-home sales surged to a decade high in October, running at a 685,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate that was 6.2% higher than a downwardly revised September pace. Sales of newly constructed homes skyrocketed in September, to a 620,000 pace, in October. But September's figure, originally reported as 667,000, was reduced to 645,000. The October number was the highest in precisely a decade, and stood 18.7% higher than a year ago. The Nasdaq lost 10.639 points or 0.15 percent to 6,878.52, the S&P 500 edged lower by 1 points or 0.04 percent to 2,601.42, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 22.79 points or 0.10 percent to 23,580.78.


Crude oil futures snapping their gaining streak ended lower on Tuesday, as uncertainty concerning Russia's willingness to extend output curbs beyond March ahead of the OPEC meeting this week weighed on sentiment. Russia is said to be on board with extending the supply quota plan through 2018, but is pushing for OPEC assurances that all members of the cartel will comply with the plan. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended lower by $0.93 or 1.4 percent at $58.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was up by 0.65 percent to $63.88 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee appreciated against US dollar on Monday, as fresh sale of the US currency by exporters paced up. Trading sentiments remained positive after Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg expressed optimism that with government's various reforms like fiscal consolidation drive and note ban, India's second quarter (Q2) growth will be far better than the first quarter (Q1) of the current financial year. Some relief also came with Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian's statement that India's steady growth has resulted in a consistent decline in poverty and improvement in several human development indices. Besides, a weak dollar against some currencies overseas also supported the rupee. On the global front, euro hit the highest level in two-months against dollar on Monday, as data pointing to robust growth in the euro zone helped overcome investors' concerns over political uncertainty in Germany. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.50, 20 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.70 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4564.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 4457.34 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 232.50 crore with gross sales of Rs 457.98 crore.


The US markets made a mixed closing after a lackluster trade, as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Jerome Powell and current Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Asian markets have made a mixed start amid uncertainty over the US tax bill, though the Japanese market was trading higher as the yen reversed earlier gains. The Indian markets in a late hour bounce back managed a modestly positive close in last session. Today, the start is likely to be a bit somber and the traders will be reacting to the report that tax collection under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was lower at Rs 83,346 crore in October, against a mop-up of over Rs 90,000 crore in September. The Finance Ministry said that total collection stood at Rs 83,346 crore till November 27 for the month of October and 50.1 lakh returns were filed for the month. Markets however may get some respite with report that the government sticking to its promise to lower the tax burden on India Inc is exploring the possibility of reducing the corporate tax rates for larger firms as well. The exact quantum of the cut in corporate tax rate is expected to be finalised closer to the presentation of the Union Budget 2018-19, but revenue implications also have to be factored in. Also, Asian Development Bank expects the Indian economy to pick up in the coming quarters and grow by 7 per cent this fiscal. There will be buzz in the telecom sector, as the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) will issue recommendations on net neutrality.


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