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NSE Intra-day chart (27 March 2018)
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Market Commentary 28 March 2018
Markets to make pessimistic start on feeble global cues


Extending northward journey for second straight day, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Tuesday's trade in green terrain with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 33,100 (Sensex) and 10,150 (Nifty) levels amid easing concerns about a potential trade war. Domestic markets started the session with a gain of over a percent, as sentiments remained up-beat with the government's decision to bring down market borrowings during the first-half of FY19 following careful assessment of its financial needs. The Centre will raise a gross Rs 2.88 lakh crore from market borrowings in the first half of the fiscal. It has also chosen to introduce shorter duration government securities and will also an additional Rs 25,000 crore from the National Small Savings Fund against the Budgeted Rs 75,000 crore to cut down its requirement for fund raising. Afterwards markets pared some of their gains, with traders turning anxious ahead of the fiscal deficit data to be released on March 28. Also, the expiry of the current month futures and options contracts are due on Wednesday and positions will be rolled over to next month. However, the markets gained some strength in second half of the trade and ended the session with a gain of around half a percent, as some support with Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg's statement that the country is well poised to click a growth rate of 7-8 per cent and with focus on start-ups, MSMEs and infrastructure investment it can step on to higher growth pedestal. traders drew some support from NITI Aayog's statement that the Indian economy is growing at 7 -8 per cent which needs to be reflected on the human development index (HDI) wherein the country stands at 131st position out of 188 nations. Meanwhile, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has said the task force on direct tax reforms will submit its report in the next 4-5 months. Traders also took note of the report that over 1,200 fresh foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were registered with markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) during April-January period of fiscal year 2017-18, driven by their continued interest in Indian equity, bonds and real estate. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 107.98 points or 0.33% to 33,174.39, while the CNX Nifty was up by 53.50 points or 0.53% to 10,184.15.


Resuming southward journey after a day of relief, the US markets ended sharply in red terrain, led by technology stocks, as reflected by the particularly steep loss posted by the Nasdaq. Social media giant Facebook (FB) helped to lead the way lower, extending a recent downtrend following news CEO Mark Zuckerberg is planning to testify before Congress in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Within the tech sector, semiconductor stocks saw considerable weakness, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 3.8 percent. The index pulled back sharply after jumping by 4.2 percent on Monday. Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) showed a steep drop after halting testing of its driverless technology on public roads following a fatal crash involving a self-driving car. On the U.S. economic front, the Conference Board released a report showing an unexpected deterioration in consumer confidence in the month of March. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped to 127.7 in March from a downwardly revised 130.0 in February. The drop surprised economists, who had expected the index to inch up to 131.0 from the 130.8 originally reported for the previous month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 344.89 points or 1.43 percent to 23,857.71, the Nasdaq dropped 211.74 points or 2.93 percent to 7008.81 and while the S&P 500 was down by 45.93 points or 1.73 percent to 2,612.62.


Extending their fall for second day in a row, Crude oil futures edged slightly lower on Tuesday ahead of expectation that U.S. government is likely to show a weekly rise in crude supplies. However, support from talk among major producers to extend their production-cut deal kept the losses in check. Weekly U.S. inventory data were due out Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Analyst is expecting EIA to report a rise of 1 million barrels in domestic crude supplies for the week ended March 23. They also forecast supply declines of 2 million for gasoline and 1.9 million for distillates. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery slipped 30 cents or 0.5 percent at $65.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude fell a penny to settle at $70.11 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Snapping its three-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Tuesday, due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. Traders failed to get relief with the government's decision to bring down market borrowings during the first-half of FY19 following careful assessment of its financial needs. The Centre will raise a gross Rs 2.88 lakh crore from market borrowings in the first half of the fiscal. Besides, the dollar's gains against some other currencies overseas added some extra pressure. Meanwhile, investors have maintained cautious approach ahead of the fiscal deficit data to be released on March 28. On the global front, euro fell on Tuesday, as concerns about weak inflation and a slowdown in company borrowing raised questions about the momentum of the euro zone's economic expansion. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.96, 10 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.86 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, in equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4426.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 4936.76 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1970.74 crore with gross sales of Rs 1984.57 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.69 crore.


The US markets closed sharply lower on Tuesday, erasing earlier gains, as a decline in the broader tech sector brought the major averages down. Asian stocks are trading lower in early deals on Wednesday after US stocks fell sharply on the back of declines in technology names. Indian markets edged higher for a second straight session on Tuesday amid improved risk appetite on hopes that a trade war between the U.S. and China is avoidable. Today, the markets are likely to make pessimistic start to the F&O series expiry session, tracking feeble global cues. Traders may also remain cautious ahead of a long holiday weekend, with domestic equity markets likely to remain closed on Thursday and Friday, on account of Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday, respectively. There will be some concern with report that Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections slid for the second straight month to Rs 851.74 billion in February as only 69 per cent of the assessees filed returns. Around 5.951 million GSTR 3B returns were filed for the month of February till March 25. This is 69 per cent of total taxpayers who are required to file monthly returns. There will be buzz in IT stocks after the Income Tax Department freezed bank accounts and deposits of Nasdaq listed IT firm, Cognizant in Chennai and Mumbai for allegedly evading dividend distribution tax. Telecom stocks too will be in focus after Telecom Secretary Aruna Sundararajan said that the much-awaited merger of Idea Cellular and Vodafone is in final stages of approval.


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