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NSE Intra-day chart (27 March 2017)
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Market Commentary 28 March 2017
Markets to make a mildly positive start tailing regional bourses

Indian equity markets concluded the fresh week on a depressing note, tracking weak global cues as US President Donald Trump's failure on healthcare reform, raised questions about his ability to push through tax cuts and fiscal spending to boost the economy. The focus also remains on Brexit-related events ahead of the British government's planned triggering of Article 50 this week. On the domestic front, sentiments were undermined by Skymet Weather prediction that monsoon 2017 would be below normal with error margin of plus and minus 5%. Between June and September, which is the monsoon season in India, rainfall is forecast to be at 95% of the long period average of 887 mm. About 70% of India's rainfall happens in this period and irrigates almost half of India's farmland, being of particular importance for Kharif crops. There is a fifty percent chance of an El Nino developing in the second half of the monsoon season, which translates into deficit rainfall in the months of July. Although expectations about roll out of the Goods and Services Tax from July 1, 2017 appear to be limiting the market's downside, the mood is quite cautious with investors looking ahead to the reporting season that is just a few sessions away. Meanwhile, aviation stocks gained traction after the report that India has become the third largest aviation market in terms of domestic passenger traffic. India's domestic air passenger traffic stood at 100 million in 2016 and was behind only the US (719 million) and China (436 million). Further, PSU Bank gained as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley last week said that the government, in tandem with the RBI, is working on a radical proposal to resolve the issue of bad loans in the banking system. Finally, the BSE Sensex decreased 184.25 points or 0.63% to 29,237.15, while the CNX Nifty was down by 62.80 points or 0.69% to 9,045.20. 


The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, as investors reassessed the prospects for President Donald Trump's ambitious economic agenda after a Republican plan to repeal and replace Obamacare was scrapped last week. The failure of the health-care bill, Trump's first major legislative test as president, raised questions about his ability to push bills through Congress, as well as the unity of the Republican coalition. Markets have rallied since the election on the hope that Trump's economic proposals - including on taxes and regulation - would accelerate economic growth, and those gains could be at risk if no legislation materializes, especially with stock valuations at lofty levels. Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said that the case for four interest rate hikes in the United States this year is not yet solid and would require a stronger lift in inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 45.74 points or 0.22 percent to 20,550.98, S&P 500 dropped 2.39 points or 0.10 percent to 2,341.59, while the Nasdaq was up 11.63 points or 0.20 percent to 5,840.37. 


Crude oil futures extending their losses declined further on Monday, on concerns about the lingering global supply glut. Traders even overlooked the report that OPEC and certain non-OPEC nations are looking to extend their six month supply quota agreement until the end of the year. But concerns over a glut in US inventories, continued to weigh on sentiment, investors fear that the sharp increase in US crude and shale production could dampened OPEC's efforts to rebalance supply and demand in the industry. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery declined by $0.24 or 0.5% to $47.73 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended lower by $0.8 at $50.84 on the ICE.


Continuing its rising streak for the second straight day, Indian rupee ended considerably stronger against dollar on Monday due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Local currency got some support with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley last week said that the government, in tandem with the Reserve Bank of India, is working on a radical proposal to resolve the issue of bad loans in the banking system. These will help to attract more foreign investments in the country. As per the provisional data released by the stock exchanges, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth Rs 543.35 crore on last Friday. However, heavy losses in the domestic equity market capped the rupee gains. On the global front, U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level against yen since late November as the House Republicans' failure to pass its long-promised health-care bill gave investors another cue to buy other major currencies. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.04, 37 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.41 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5359.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 4776.19 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1472.39 crore with gross sales of Rs 557.66 crore.


The US markets continued their consolidation mood and the major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the neutral line, amid weakness overseas following the decision by Republican leaders to withdraw their bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start led by the Japanese market which is up by over a percent, as investors assessed the US administration's ability to enact reform. The dollar steadied, weighed down by the chance of slower inflation necessitating less need for quicker interest-rate increases. The Indian markets suffered sell-off on the very first day of the F&O series expiry and the major benchmarks deposed over half a percent with selling intensifying in bluechips. Today, the start is likely to be in green and some recovery can be seen on supportive global cues. Traders will also be getting some support with the government working under a self-imposed July 1 deadline for the goods and services tax (GST) roll-out, tabling four Bills related to the proposed comprehensive indirect tax in Parliament for passage, among other things, the legislation provides for a peak GST rate of 40% and setting up of an authority to protect consumers from profiteering by businesses. There will be some concern too, as the private forecaster Skymet has said India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall this year owing to an evolving El NiƱo. If the forecast turns out to be accurate, it could prove worrisome for the economy. Traders will also be eyeing the movement of rupee, which has been on a rising streak and touched 17 months high in last session. Meanwhile, RBI's Deputy Governor S S Mundra has said that the central bank don't target a particular range for the rupee. What it always do is to curb the undue volatility in the (forex) market.


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  • Axis Bank is planning to open an international finance branch at the International Financial Services Center in Gujarat International Finance Tech City.
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T Constructions has bagged an order worth Rs 705 crore in Tanzania.
  • SBI has received its board approval to dilute 10% of its stake in the life insurance venture SBI Life through public offer.
  • Dr Reddy's Laboratories and Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation have entered into an exclusive distribution agreement.


News Analysis