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NSE Intra-day chart (26 November 2018)
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Market Commentary 27 November 2018
Markets to make negative start amid weak regional cues


The equity benchmarks bounced back on Monday to close on positive note, after falling for last three trading sessions. The Bourses begun the week well, buoyed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) statement that India's economy will grow close to 7.5% in 2019 and 2020. India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.7% in 2017-18. However, the trade soon turned volatile, amid India Ratings (Ind-Ra) latest report that a change of even $1 per barrel would impact India's import bill by Rs 6,160 crore, as the country continues to be a large importer of crude oil. India meets over 80% of its oil demand through imports. Adding some anxiety among traders, National Green Tribunal chairman Justice Adarsh Kumar Goel stated that India has earned its pride of place in the world with its economy growing very fast but a large number of people still live below the poverty line. The country had no doubt achieved growth but it was not enough to meet the aspirations of the freedom fighters who had drafted the Constitution. Meanwhile, West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra said that demonetisation and faulty implementation of the GST have caused a loss of Rs 4.75 lakh crore to the country's economy. But, in the second half of the session, the markets gained traction to settle near their day's high points, following firm global markets. Domestic sentiments got boost with the report stating that foreign investors have pumped in Rs 6,310 crore into Indian capital markets this month so far, after pulling out massive funds in October, on easing crude oil prices and a strengthening rupee. Some comfort also came with a private report indicating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep the key policy rates unchanged at its ensuing policy review meet next month, amid easing global crude oil prices and robust agriculture production. Investors were seen taking support with the RBI's report that the country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $568.9 million to $393.580 billion in the week to November 16, mainly due to a spurt in foreign currency assets. Adding some relief, SBI Research report stated that following decline in oil prices, the country's current account deficit (CAD) is expected to touch 2.6% of GDP in the current fiscal against an earlier expectation of 2.8%. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 373.06 points or 1.07% to 35,354.08, while the CNX Nifty was up by 101.85 points or 0.97% to 10,628.60.


The US markets ended higher on Monday as traders looked to pick up stocks at reduced levels on the heels of the recent weakness. Further, Stable oil prices and global equities gains too soothed sentiment after a bruising week of losses. Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions continued to loom over the market ahead of the Group of 20 summit beginning Friday when President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet and discuss trade issues. Besides, some support came in as retail shares rallied on expectations of strong sales as shoppers went hunting for deals on Cyber. Global developments also influenced trading. Signs that Italy's coalition government was prepared to cut its budget deficit target - a move that could defuse tensions between Rome and the European Union - helped soothe jitters. UK Prime Minister Theresa May also walked away from an EU meeting with approval for her Brexit deal and now seeks the approval of her own parliament. However, a lack of economic data also kept some traders on the sidelines. Traders are likely to keep an eye on remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as well as the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 354.29 or 1.46 percent points to 24640.24, S&P 500 gained 40.89 points or 1.55 percent to 2673.45 and Nasdaq was up 142.87 points or 2.06 percent to 7081.85.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Monday with the US Benchmark prices posting their biggest one-day rise in eight weeks-just after suffering their worst session percentage loss in three years. Further, talk of a meeting of Russian and Saudi oil members this week was driving speculation of an early agreement to cut production.  Meanwhile, perceived riskier assets such as oil and equities, which were also pummeled last week, could get a boost if a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit yields a long-awaited trade breakthrough. Benchmark crude oil futures for January gained $1.21 or 2.4 percent to settle $51.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude rose $1.68 or 2.9 percent to settle at $60.48 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Paring all its initial gains, Indian rupee ended weak against the American currency on Monday due to dollar demand from banks and importers. Rupee snapped 7 days of winning streak as traders were cautious with India Ratings' (Ind-Ra) latest report stating that a change of even $1 per barrel would impact India's import bill by Rs 6,160 crore, as the country continues to be a large importer of crude oil. India meets over 80% of its oil demand through imports. On the global front, the dollar was lower on Monday, with the euro and the pound gaining ground as concerns over Italy's budget row eased, but investors remained cautious as a host of geopolitical risks continued to loom over markets. Finally, the rupee ended at 70.87, 18 paise weaker from its previous close of 70.69 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4729.71 crore against gross selling of Rs 3037.42 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1322.11 crore with gross sales of Rs 256.26 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.18 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Monday as shares of some beaten-down tech companies rebounded after posting steep losses last week. Asian markets were trading mostly in red in early deals on Tuesday as President Donald Trump discussed plans for further China tariff increases in the absence of a trade deal. Snapping three-day losing streak, Indian markets ended sharply higher on Monday, with Sensex and Nifty gaining around a percent each, as firm Asian cues and a persistent decline in global crude oil prices buoyed investors sentiment. Today, the markets are likely to make pessimistic start taking cues from other Asian peers amid rebound in crude oil prices. Traders will be concerned about a SBI research report stating that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the September quarter is expected to decelerate to 7.5-7.6% over the previous three-month period mainly due to a slowdown in rural demand. Also, there will be negative reaction on India Ratings and Research's statement that India is set to miss its fiscal deficit target for the year ending March 2019 due to a shortfall in revenues and lower-than-targeted disinvestment proceeds. The country's 2019 fiscal deficit target has been pegged at 3.3% of its GDP or 6.24 trillion rupees ($88.45 billion). But the credit rating agency estimated fiscal deficit at 6.67 trillion - or 3.5% of GDP. Meanwhile, Indian companies raised funds worth Rs 36,176 crore by issuing securities on public and private placement basis during October, registering a decline of 17% compared to September. However, traders may take some support later in the day with the think-tank's Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement the Niti Aayog is exploring ways to encourage more domestic companies to be among the top multinational corporations in the world. Moreover, the commerce ministry has recommended continuation of anti-dumping duty for five years on a chemical used in pharma and agro industries, imported from the European Union and the US. There will some buzz in the banking sector stocks with report that the government will infuse Rs 420 billion in the state-owned banks by March-end and the next tranche would be released as early as next month.


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  • Tata Motors' wholly owned subsidiary -- Jaguar Land Rover -- has launched a new compact luxury SUV, designed, engineered and manufactured in Britain, as a sign of its commitment to the UK car industry.  
  • Reliance Industries' wholly owned subsidiary -- Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings has incorporated wholly owned subsidiary company namely, Jio Estonia OU in Estonia, on November 22, 2018. 
  • Yes Bank has completed first-of-its-kind digital transaction with Welspun Global Brands - a subsidiary of Welspun India.   
  • Bharti Airtel's subsidiary -- Airtel Africa -- has appointed global banks for an intended IPO on an international stock exchange.
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