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NSE Intra-day chart (26 September 2017)
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Market Commentary 27 September 2017
Markets to make a cautious start on penultimate day of F&O expiry

Indian equity benchmarks ended the session flat with negative bias on Tuesday, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of the September F&O expiry later this week. Markets made a cautious start and extended their southward movement, as traders opted to offload risky bets amid rising tensions in the Korean peninsula after North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho claimed recent comments by President Donald Trump represent a declaration of war. Sentiments also remained dampened after the Asian Development Bank (ADB) trimmed its growth forecast for South Asia to 6.7 percent this year and 7.0 percent next year, compared with estimates of 7.0 percent and 7.2 percent made in July. India's growth was seen at 7.0 percent and 7.4 percent for this year and next, weaker than the July forecasts of 7.4 percent and 7.6 percent. ADB added that long-term interest rates in many Asian economies are closely linked to those in the US, policymakers need to strengthen their financial positions further and monitor debt levels and asset prices. Domestic bourses even went to test their 31,500 (Sensex) and 9,800 (Nifty) levels, but the key gauges got some support near those intraday low levels as they trim most of their losses to end flat, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Traders took some solace with Prime Minister Narendra Modi constituting an Economic Advisory Council in a bid to bring in economic reforms. NITI Aayog member and a former professor at the Centre for Policy Research, Bibek Debroy has been appointed as Chairman of Economic Advisory Council. It will address issues of macroeconomic importance' and present its views to the prime minister. Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the government was in the process of undertaking measures to change the environment and provide a boost to the Indian economy. Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 26.87 points or 0.08% to 31,599.76, while the CNX Nifty was down by 1.10 points or 0.01% to 9871.50.


The US markets closed mostly higher on Tuesday, though the Dow industrials extended a losing streak to a fourth session. Investors appeared to shrug off comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who cautioned against moving too slowly on interest rates. Yellen said there is a risk that the labor market could become overheated, causing an inflation problem down the road. It is possible, Yellen said, that the Fed may have misspecified its models for inflation, and misjudged key facts like the underlying strength of the labour market and whether inflation expectations are as stable as they seem. On the economy front, home-price gains picked up speed in July, led by some perennial hot spots and one surprise newcomer. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 5.8% in the three-month period ending in July compared with a year ago, and was up from 5.6% in the June period. Case-Shiller's national index rose 5.9%, up from 5.8%. For the month, both the national and the 20-city index rose an unadjusted 0.7%. On the other hand, consumer confidence in the US fell slightly in September, hurt in part by hurricanes Irma and Harvey, but most Americans remain quite optimistic about the economy. The Nasdaq gained 9.57 points or 0.15 percent to 6,380.16, the S&P 500 edged higher by 0.18 points or 0.01 percent to 2,496.84, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11.77 points or 0.05 percent to 22,284.32.


Crude oil futures turned weak on Tuesday ahead of the weekly inventory data which is expected to show crude oil supplies rose for the fourth-straight week. Investors appeared to take profit on the recent rally that has seen oil prices hit multi-month highs. Traders were cautious with threat from Turkey's president to cut off oil exports from a Kurdish region of Iraq. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday warned his country could "close the valves" on the pipeline that carries 500,000-600,000 barrels of crude per day from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended lower by $0.34 or 0.7 percent at $51.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery lost 79 cent to $58.23 a barrel on the ICE.


Falling for the second consecutive session, Indian rupee depreciated substantially against dollar on Tuesday, on increased month-end demand for the US currency from importers amid sustained foreign fund outflows. Investors remained concerned with the report that Asian Development Bank downgraded India's growth projection to 7 percent for the current fiscal while lowering its forecast for the next financial year as well. Additionally, dollar rose to a position of strength overseas along with weak trade in domestic equity market, mainly pressurized the home unit. On the global front, dollar climbed against most other currencies on Tuesday, rising to a one-month high against the euro as traders continued to digest the German election and looked ahead to a speech on monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.44, 33 paise weaker from its previous close of 65.11 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6698.60 crore against gross selling of Rs 6727.43 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1274.84 crore with gross sales of Rs 2230.55 crore.


The US markets continued their lackluster trade in the last session and the major averages made a mixed closing, amid the release of some disappointing economic data, including a report showing an unexpected drop in new home sales. The Asian markets have made a mixed start as the dollar retained modest gains after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen boosted expectations for an interest-rate rise in December. The Indian markets despite recovery in the late hour ended mildly in red in the last session making it six days losing streak, today the start of the penultimate session of F&O series expiry is likely to be cautious on sluggish global cues, traders will also be concerned with collections under goods and services tax dipping to Rs 90,669 crore for August from a revised figure of Rs 94,063 crore for July. Of the tax collected, Rs 14,402 crore have come in as Central GST, Rs 21,067 crore as State GST and Rs 47,377 crore as Integrated GST, which is levied on inter-state movement of goods and imports and Rs 7,823 crore as compensation cess. Also, there will be cautiousness with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) expecting the RBI to go for another round of rate cut in the latter part of 2017-18 in view of sluggish economic activities but does not see possibility of any major fiscal stimulus. However, as the day progress some recovery will be seen in the market with rollover of positions to the next series. There will be some action in the telecom sector as the government has set up a high-level 5G committee with a mandate to lay down a road map for rollout of the technology by 2020. The government is working on creating a corpus of Rs 500 crore to fund 5G activity, mainly on research and product development. There will be some buzz in the primary market too, as the shares of ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company will list on bourses today. The Rs 5700 crore issue was oversubscribed 2.98 times.


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