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NSE Intra-day chart (26 August 2020)
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Market Commentary 27 August 2020
Benchmarks to get a cautious start amid weakness in Asian peers

 

Extending their gaining streak into the fourth session in a row, Indian equity benchmarks ended Wednesday's session with gains of over half percent. Late hour buying in Energy, Auto and Banking stocks helped benchmarks stage a sharp up move and close near the intraday highs. Benchmark indices made slightly positive start as traders took support with Moody's Investors Service stating that India, China and Indonesia will be the only G-20 emerging economies to post a strong enough pick up of real GDP in the second half of 2020, and retained its projection of 3.1 percent growth contraction for India in 2020. After that, key gauges oscillated between the positive and negative territory for some part of the session, as traders got wary with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its annual report for 2019-20 stating that the Country's headline inflation is expected to firm up further in the coming months largely due to disruptions in food and manufactured items' supply chains. Some concern also came with rating agency ICRA's report that the economy is expected to contract by 25 per cent each in the first quarter of FY'21 both in terms of GDP (gross domestic product) as well GVA (gross value added). However, strong buying in the last hour of the trading session helped the indices to close higher, taking support from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the government is open to further tweaking the Rs 3 lakh crore credit guarantee scheme for providing collateral-free loans to small businesses. Some optimism also remained among traders with Union Expenditure Secretary T V Somanathan's statement that the government may look at introducing a second set of fiscal stimulus measures once the COVID-19 infections abate and the psychological fears in people's minds ebb. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry said banks have sanctioned loans of about Rs 1,55,995 crore under the Rs 3-trillion Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for the MSME sector reeling under the slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 230.04 points or 0.59% to 39,073.92, while the CNX Nifty was up by 77.35 points or 0.67% to 11,549.60.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq settling at fresh records amid reports of progress on coronavirus vaccine trials and expectations for the Federal Reserve to signal it will keep monetary policy easy in a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday. Biotechnology company Moderna announced promising results from a small trial of its coronavirus vaccine candidate in elderly patients. Moderna told a government advisory committee that its experimental vaccine produced neutralizing antibodies and appeared to be well tolerated. A falling trend in the number of new coronavirus infections in the US has been credited with pushing stocks to new highs. The S&P 500 scored its 18th record close of the year and the Nasdaq marked its 39th all-time closing high of 2020. Meanwhile, the Dow closed within 1% of going positive for the year after the coronavirus-induced turbulence in March. Besides, the strength on markets partly reflected optimism about the outlook for the economy after a report from the Commerce Department showed durable goods orders spiked by much more than expected in the month of July. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders skyrocketed by 11.2 percent in July after surging up by a revised 7.7 percent in June. Street had expected durable goods orders to increase by 4.3 percent compared to the 7.6 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month. The bigger than expected leap in durable goods orders was primarily due to a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, which soared by 35.6 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended slightly higher on Wednesday following the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels for the week ended August 21, marking a fifth weekly decline in a row. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a decrease of 4.5 million barrels.  Meanwhile, the US Gulf Coast braced for Hurricane Laura and potential damage to the region's energy infrastructure. Crude oil futures for October added 4 cents or 0.1 percent to settle at $43.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, October Brent crude declined 22 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $45.64 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Wednesday due to fresh selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Sentiments were optimistic as Moody's Investors Service said India, China and Indonesia will be the only G-20 emerging economies to post a strong enough pick up of real GDP in the second half of 2020, and retained its projection of 3.1 per cent growth contraction for India in 2020. However, upside remain capped as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest report stated that the contraction in economic activity is likely to continue in the second quarter of the current fiscal as upticks witnessed in May and June appears to have lost strength following re-imposition of lockdowns to contain the coronavirus pandemic. On the global front; dollar and the euro traded cautiously on Wednesday as investors refrained from taking risky bets a day ahead of a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Finally, the rupee ended at 74.30, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 74.33 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5740.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 3986.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1818.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 2858.17 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.07 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday amid optimism about the outlook for the economy after a report from the Commerce Department showed durable goods orders spiked by much more than expected in the month of July. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday as investors await upcoming comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Indian markets ended higher on Wednesday led by gains in banks, auto and IT stocks. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry session is likely to be cautious amid mixed cues from Asian peers. Investors will also track the GST council meeting as well as the annual general meeting of Tata Sons. Rising coronavirus cases is likely to weight down on market sentiments. India has recorded its worst-ever single-day spike of 75,995 coronavirus cases, taking its total past 3.3 million. India's tally now stands at 3,307,749. With 1,017 fatalities reported on Wednesday, the country's death toll has breached the 6000-mark. There will be some cautiousness with a private report stating that general government debt -- which is the combined liabilities of the Centre and states -- is likely to hit a record 91 per cent of GDP this fiscal. However, some support may come later in the day with Commerce Secretary Anup Wadhawan's statement that the department of commerce is proactively engaging with state governments to promote exports. Traders may take note of report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will rationalise regulations for overseas direct investment (ODI) in order to make them simpler and more principles-based. Meanwhile, the commerce ministry's investigation arm DGTR has recommended imposition of anti-dumping duty for five years on 'choline chloride', a chemical imported from China, Malaysia and Vietnam, to guard domestic players from cheap inbound shipments. There will be some buzz in the hospitality industry related stocks the Federation of Hotel and Restaurant Associations of India (FHRAI) said it has urged the government and the Reserve Bank of India to an extend moratorium for additional three months. Telecom stocks will be in focus after the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) said that the industry lost over 5.6 million wireless subscribers in May amid the nationwide lockdown. The overall telecom subscriber base for wireless connections stood flat at 1.14 billion in May, compared to 1.14 billion crore in April. there will be some reaction in tobacco industry related stocks as a parliamentary panel recommended permitting regulated foreign direct investment in the tobacco sector and establishing export-only tobacco farms to boost outward shipments.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,549.60

11,487.05

11,586.95

BSE Sensex

38,843.88

38,855.49

39,201.95

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

1,975.16

137.90

131.16

141.81

Zee Entertainment Enterprises

692.75

211.50

201.70

217.35

State Bank of India

667.51

209.85

207.21

211.41

ICICI Bank

371.64

389.35

385.15

392.60

NTPC

308.29

102.80

101.40

104.40

 

  • NTPC's wholly-owned subsidiary -- NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam has signed a memorandum of understanding with Greenko Energies. 
  • ICICI Bank is deploying satellite data to power farm credit assessment, which it claims will reduce the cost for both farmers as well as the lender. 
  • Tata Motors is aiming to reduce its total automotive debt to near-zero levels in three years and generate free cash flows from FY22 onwards. 
  • TCS' strategic unit -- TCS iON is now accepting registrations for the third edition of TCS iON IntelliGem.
News Analysis