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NSE Intra-day chart (26 April 2016)
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Market Commentary 27 April 2016
Markets to make a cautious start on sluggish global cues

 

A session after displaying a distressing performance, Indian benchmark indices managed to pull through a dazzling performance by rallying over a percentage points on Tuesday, as better than expected earnings including Maruti Suzuki India lifted mood, while gains in European shares and a recovery in crude prices also helped to improve sentiments. Market gains were also buoyed by report that India might surpass China in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) this year, in terms of percentage of its GDP, as the gap in inflows between the two has been narrowing on the back of ongoing reforms in the country. Some support also came with statement of Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das, who pledging a strong focus on the execution of Budget announcements and ensuring that there are no delays in investments by key ministries, said that India plans to further liberalise rules for overseas investors as the government looks to reduce the need for approvals. On the global front, markets in Asia made a mixed finish, while European shares advanced in early trade after some encouraging company results. Back home, after witnessing sluggish trade in previous session, the local benchmark indices started the day on weak note as investors were largely influenced by the pessimistic sentiments prevailing in the other regional markets. Besides, depreciation in rupee values against the dollar and persistent selling by domestic financial institutions have also negatively impacted sentiments. But the frontline indices slowly and steadily started gathering steam and surged by around half a percent by late morning trades. The bourses further capitalized on the momentum and spurted in afternoon trades on the back of broad based bottom fishing in undervalued stocks. However, a mild profit booking in dying moments of trade ensured that the key indices shut shops off the intraday highs. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 328.37 points or 1.28% to 26007.30, while the CNX Nifty rallied 107.60 points or 1.37% to 7,962.65.

 

The US market closed mostly higher on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq turned lower ahead of tech earnings. Investors were also cautious ahead of an updated policy statement from the Federal Reserve. On the economy front, orders for US durable goods climbed 0.8% in March, spearhead by increases in demand for military hardware, but bookings were soft in most key categories. Orders for large commercial aircraft fell 5.7% in March even though Boeing itself reported a big increase: 69 bookings compared to just two in February. The value of these orders is now likely to show up in April. Bookings for new cars and trucks also dropped 3%, reflecting a slowdown in sales after they recently hit a record high. Auto makers reported the weakest rate of sales in March in 13 months. Key segments that posted gains included primary metals, up 0.8%, and machinery, which rose 0.5%. US home prices rose 0.2% in February. House prices rose 5.4% compared to a year ago in February, a slightly slower pace than in January, S&P/Case Shiller 20-City index showed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 13.08 points or 0.07 percent to 17,990.32, S&P 500 was up 3.91 points or 0.19 percent to 2,091.70 while, Nasdaq was down by 7.51 points or 0.15 percent to 4,888.28.

 

Crude oil futures surged in last session amid indications of stronger demand growth in upcoming weeks. In June, Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco will ship 730,000 barrels in storage in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa to China's eastern province of Shandong. Crude prices were also bolstered by a weak dollar and hopes for Chinese demand, though traders were looking ahead to US crude oil inventories data and Federal Reserve's announcement of its latest decision on monetary policy. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery surged by $1.30 or 3.05 percent to $43.94 a barrel after trading in a range of $42.52 and $44.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery closed at $45.51, up $1.19 or 2.69 percent on the ICE.

 

Snapping its three-days losing streak, Indian rupee appreciated against dollar on Tuesday on the back of selling of American currency by banks and exporters. The rupee wiped of its early losses to end strong. Further, surge in local equity market also buttress the domestic currency. Dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting starting on Tuesday, too supported domestic currency. Some support also came with statement of Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das, who said that India plans to further liberalise rules for overseas investors as the government looks to reduce the need for approvals. On the global front, yen rose on Tuesday against the dollar and euro as prospects of more monetary stimulus this week from the Bank of Japan remained unclear. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.52, 10 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.62, on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5721.64 crore against gross selling of Rs 5481.24 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2021.84 crore with gross sales of Rs 964.23 crore.          

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, after going through a choppy trade, as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start led by the decline in technology stocks after Apple Inc. reported its first quarterly sales drop in more than a decade. However, the Chinese markets were showing some gains in early deals. The Indian markets surged in last session, with benchmarks rallying over a percent, supported by some good earnings and strength in rupee ahead of the Fed policy meeting outcome. Today, the start of the penultimate day of F&O expiry is likely to be a bit cautious, as the global cues are not very supportive and traders will be mainly concentrating on earnings announced after the market hours yesterday and lots of important ones to be announced today. Traders will be concerned with global rating agency Moody's warning to the government over the bad loan situation. The rating agency believes that rising credit profile of corporate India may pose a rating risk to the country. It has said that India faces the risk of sovereign debt levels climbing higher if economic growth isn't robust enough and could ultimately put pressure on the government's ability to fund itself. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has asked the government to "reform" the banking system to prevent huge write-offs of bad loans and also to ensure people are not allowed to run away after default in repaying the loans. There will be some buzz in the PSU stocks, as the government will sell 11.36% stake in NHPC through an offer for sale (OFS) to raise about Rs 2,700 crore in an early start to this fiscal year's Rs 56,500-crore disinvestment programme. There will be lots of important earnings announcements to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7962.65

7865.30

8017.25

BSE Sensex

26007.30

25685.90

26191.85

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

274.41

254.05

248.80

257.00

SBI

218.09

200.95

196.53

203.38

Hindalco

174.85

103.15

100.22

104.77

Axis Bank

126.86

480.20

467.60

488.85

ITC

96.44

327.40

317.15

333.00

 

  • ABB India has posted a rise of 30.74% in its net profit at Rs 70.98 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2016 as compared to Rs 54.29 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra, India's leading SUV manufacturer, has unveiled a limited edition of its Scorpio starting at Rs 13.07 lakh, ex-showroom Mumbai without Octroi.
  • HDFC will raise Rs 500 crore by issuing secured redeemable non-convertible debentures on a private placement basis to cater to housing finance needs.
  • Bharti Airtel is planning to integrate all mobile wallets and other digital modes on its online recharge platform to facilitate payments by its customers.
  • Tata Power, India's largest integrated power company has launched Spot Billing facility in Mumbai.
News Analysis