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Market Commentary 26 July 2019
Benchmarks to make slightly negative start amid weakness in global markets


Indian equity bourses failed to hold gains on Thursday and ended trading session lower for sixth straight day. Key indices started the day on firm note, as India improved its ranking on the global innovation index (GII) by five places to stand at 52nd in 2019 from 57th position last year and maintained its position as the top exporter of IT services. Traders were optimistic during morning deals, with Revenue Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey's statement that the revised direct tax target of Rs 13.35 lakh crore is realistic and achievable with the help of economic growth and exchange of data amongst various agencies and wings of the government. However, markets erased gains to turn volatile in afternoon deals, as India Meteorological Department said that monsoon rains were 35% below average in the week ending on July 24, with little rainfall over the central, western and northern parts of the country. But, downside remained restricted, amid a private report that recruiters are bullish about adding staff to their payrolls in the next six months of this year, and the maximum hiring is expected to be in the experience band of three-five years. Besides, the Government has introduced the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Bill 2019, that seeks to ensure timely completion of debt resolution process and provide more clarity on rights of stakeholders. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 16.67 points or 0.04% to 37,830.98, while the CNX Nifty was down by 19.15 points or 0.17% to 11,252.15.


The US markets ended lower on Thursday after a series of mostly disappointing earnings reports and fears that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive than hoped in cutting interest rates next week after the European Central Bank's policy decision. The European Central Bank (ECB) initially generated some positive sentiment by leaving interest rates unchanged but signaling a future rate cut. The ECB said the bank expects rates to remain at present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020 after previously saying it only expected rates to remain at present levels. Besides, technology-related stocks were under pressure after electric-car maker Tesla failed to meet earnings expectations. On the economic front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed a much stronger than expected rebound in new orders for US manufactured durable goods in the month of June, although the report also showed a much steeper than previously reported drop in orders in May. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders spiked by 2.0% in June after plunging by a revised 2.3% in May. Street had expected durable goods to climb by 0.7% compared to the 1.3% slump originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, after reporting an uptick in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the previous week, the Labor Department released a showing an unexpected pullback in initial jobless claims in the week ended July 20. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 128.99 points or 0.47 percent to 27140.98, Nasdaq declined 82.96 points or 1.00 percent to 8238.54 and S&P 500 was down by 15.89 points or 0.53 percent to 3003.67.


Crude oil futures ended slightly higher on Thursday as demand worries kept lid on prices. Meanwhile, traders were watching reports that Saudi Arabia, swing-producer for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, met with Kuwaiti officials and discussed ramping up oil production in the southern neutral zone, a move which also served to limit upside for crude prices. Besides, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said the outlook for the eurozone economy was getting worse and worse, particularly for the manufacturing sector as the ECB signaled it was preparing to deliver additional monetary stimulus as soon as its next meeting in September. Benchmark crude oil futures for September added 14 cents or 0.3 percent to settle at $56.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent gained 21 cents or 0.3 percent to settle at $63.39 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended lower against US dollar on Thursday on account of sustained demand for dollar from banks and importers. Traders took note off report that India has improved its ranking on the global innovation index (GII) by five places to stand at 52nd in 2019 from 57th position last year and maintained its position as the top exporter of IT services. Besides, subdued sentiments in domestic equity markets weighed on the domestic currency. However, downside remain capped as some support came with India's GDP is expected to grow at 6.8 per cent in FY20, making it a second straight year of sub-7% expansion. In FY19 too, the economy grew at a rate of 7%. On the global front, the euro sank to a new two-month low against the dollar on Thursday, as investors waited for the European Central Bank to signal another round of monetary easing, including a possible rate cut and the resumption of bond purchases. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.04, 6 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.98 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4195.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 5642.24 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2223.69 crore with gross sales of Rs 1264.24 crore Besides, In the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.13 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.72 crore.


The US markets declined on Thursday amid investors worried that the Federal Reserve will not be as dovish as expected in its monetary policy announcement next week following strong economic data and remarks from the top European Central Bank official. Asian markets are trading in red on Friday following overnight losses on Wall Street. Indian markets extended southward journey for sixth straight session and ended marginally lower on Thursday, after a highly volatile session, as July derivative contracts expired. Today, the markets are likely to open marginally in red tracking weakness in Asian peers. Some cautiousness will come with private report that despite heavy buying by foreign investors in the last month of 2018-19 (FY19), foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers of $5.5 billion in the market. An announcement of increase in surcharge on the super-rich in the Union Budget FY20 has weighed on portfolio investors and witnessed outflows, especially in the equity segment. However, traders may take some support later in the day with Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that India was pursuing a policy of import substitution so far, and in future, the country's policy will essentially focus on export-led growth. He said India has huge potential to become a global manufacturing hub for electronics products. Also, some support may come with the Employees' State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) payroll data showing that around 12.66 lakh jobs were created in May, a tad higher than 11.15 lakh jobs in April this year. Traders may take note of rating agency Crisil's report that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Guidelines on loan system for delivery of bank credit will lead to a better assessment of working capital requirements by borrowers, and improve financial discipline among them. Meanwhile, the meeting of the GST Council scheduled on Thursday, to decide on cutting tax rates on electric vehicles, has been postponed to July 27, 2019. Besides, industry body Assocham has sought inclusion of petroleum products in GST and subsuming of some local and state taxes like stamp duty. There will be some buzz in the non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) stocks with rating agency Fitch's report that the government measures to provide partial credit guarantee to public sector bank on their asset purchases from NBFCs can ease funding pressure only for the short-term. There will be some reaction in sugar stocks with rating agency ICRA's statement that the Government's decision to create a sugar buffer stock of four million tonnes for a year would not only help industry financially, but also improve the demand-supply situation in the domestic market. There will be some earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.


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  • Cipla's wholly-owned subsidiary -- Cipla USA Inc. has acquired the prescription drug ZEMDRI (Plazomicin) from Achaogen Inc. 
  • NTPC and BHEL have inked a MoU for forming a Joint Venture company, to set up a 800 MW Technology Demonstration Plant at Chhattisgarh. 
  • Tata Motors has reported consolidated net loss of Rs 3679.66 crore for Q1FY20, as compared to net loss of Rs 1862.57 crore for Q1FY19. 
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has raised $650 million by allotment of fixed rate senior unsecured notes.
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