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NSE Intra-day chart (25 March 2020)
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Market Commentary 26 March 2020
Benchmarks to make slightly negative start on Thursday

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended Wednesday's trade on high note that marked a second straight day of gain for the markets, tracking bullish trend from global key indices as authorities world over stepped up efforts to fight the pandemic. Sensex ended above 28,500 Mark, while Nifty reclaimed 8,300 Mark. Key indices witnessed a fluctuating trade in the morning session, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a complete lockdown of the country for 21 days to curb the spread of the deadly coronavirus pandemic that will have a bearing on businesses across the country. However, markets changed their gear in afternoon session and gained steadily, taking support Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement where she extended the deadline for filing tax returns by three months beyond March 31. She also announced a slew of regulatory and compliance measures across sectors to alleviate the hardships being faced by various businesses. Markets continued their strong bullish momentum in late trade, as Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in its latest data showed that investments through participatory notes (P-notes) in the domestic capital market rose to Rs 68,862 crore at the end of February 2020, making it the second consecutive monthly increase. Domestic sentiments were also buoyed with Union Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan's statement that the government is monitoring the availability of essential commodities in the market amid nationwide lockdown for next 21 days to check the spread of coronavirus outbreak. He also warned manufacturers and traders against profiteering during this period. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 1861.75 points or 6.98% to 28,535.78, while the CNX Nifty was up by 516.80 points or 6.62% to 8317.85.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average booking its first back-to-back gains in about seven weeks, as investors have waded back into a battered market. Markets held on to a gains partly due to a substantial advance by shares of Boeing (BA), which spiked by 24.3 percent after a private report said the aerospace giant plans to restart 737 MAX production by May. Nike (NKE) also moved sharply higher after the athletic footwear and apparel maker reported better than expected fiscal third quarter results and said sales in China have rebounded since the coronavirus outbreak in the country has eased. However, upside remained capped amid a dispute between Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and several Republican Senators that could delay a massive stimulus package. Sanders said he is prepared to put a hold on the legislation unless the GOP Senators drop their objections to fast-tracking the bill over a provision that would increase maximum unemployment benefits by $600 a week for four months. On the economic front, a report released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected increase in new orders for US durable goods in the month of February. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders jumped by 1.2 percent in February after a revised uptick 0.1 percent in January. Street had expected durable goods orders to decrease by about 0.8 percent compared to the 0.2 percent dip that had been reported for the previous month. The unexpected increase in durable goods orders was largely due to a substantial rebounded in orders for transportation equipment, which spiked by 4.6 percent in February after falling by 0.9 percent in January. 

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday as optimism surrounding the $2 trillion US economic stimulus package eventually helped to calm some worries about growing supply amid a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Meanwhile, data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude oil inventories in the US rose by 1.6 million barrels for the week ended March 20, against expectations for a 2.8 million barrels increase. The EIA data also showed supply declines of 1.5 million barrels for gasoline and 700,000 barrels for distillates. Crude oil futures for May rose 48 cents or 2 percent to settle at $24.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude gained 24 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $27.39 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Money market remained closed on Wednesday on account of Gudi Padwa, the beginning of the Maharashtrian New Year.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5767.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 8407.39 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2032.28 crore with gross sales of Rs 3601.14 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.04 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.99 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday amid a dispute between Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and several Republican Senators that could delay a massive stimulus package. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday as investors are awaiting the passage and details of a $2 trillion stimulus package in the United States to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Indian markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday, with gains of around 7% each, as they joined the rally in the global markets, shrugging off concerns surrounding the impact of 21-day nationwide lockdown on the economy. Today, the markets are likely to get flat-to-negative start amid mixed cues from global markets. There will be some volatility in the markets due to the expiry of the Futures and Options (F&O) contracts for the month of March. Also, there will be some cautiousness with Care Ratings' report that if the 21-day long national lockdown leads to 80 per cent production loss, the economy will take a hit of Rs 35,000-40,000 crore on a daily basis, shaving off Rs 6.3-7.2 trillion cumulatively. It added that Q4 growth may not be negative but can go down to 1.5-2.5%. The economy was slated to grow by Rs 1.74 lakh crore in Q4 or by 4.7%. though, some support may come later in the day with a private report that the government is likely to agree an economic stimulus package of more than Rs 1.5 trillion ($19.6 billion) to fight a downturn in the country that is currently locked down to stem the spread of coronavirus. Besides, , the government has decided to increase monthly quota of subsidized foodgrains by 2 kg to 7kg per person through ration shops for 80 crore beneficiaries to ensure sufficient supply during the lockdown. There will be some buzz in the metal stocks as World Steel Association (worldsteel) in its latest report stated that India's crude steel output increased by 1.5% to 9.56 million tonnes (MT) in February this year. The country had produced 9.42 MT steel in the same month a year ago. Oil industry stocks will be in focus as the oil ministry's data showed that crude oil production at 2.39 million tonnes in February was 6.41% lower than 2.56 million tonnes output in the same month a year back. There will be some reaction in aviation stocks with aviation consultancy CAPA India's report that Indian aviation sector is projected to incur a staggering $3.3-3.6 billion loss in the first quarter of the next financial year if flight services remain grounded till June-end. 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8,317.85

7,896.15

8,558.15

BSE Sensex

28,535.78

27,000.40

29,430.68

                                                 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

715.68

189.90

179.15

197.95

ICICI Bank

665.46

316.90

287.62

340.17

ITC

625.06

147.35

140.23

153.23

Tata Motors

577.16

70.25

67.77

72.22

Axis Bank

519.94

326.80

287.28

365.03

 

  • IOC is cutting down the run-rate of its refineries by at least one-fourth to keep fuel production in line with the demand. 
  • ONGC has been forced to cut natural gas production by up to one-tenth as customers refused to take supplies because of business disruption. 
  • Tata Motors is planning to introduce three more vehicles during the course of this calendar year. 
  • Vedanta has cut the prices of aluminium ingots for the fourth time in a row.
News Analysis