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NSE Intra-day chart (23 November 2017)
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Market Commentary 24 November 2017
Markets to get a cautious start on sluggish global cues

Indian equity benchmarks managed to keep their head above water and went home with slender gains, extending their winning streak to sixth day. Markets started with caution but gradually gained momentum and traded with traction in first half of the session, as traders took some support with rating agency Moody's latest report where it expecting an improvement in the credit profiles of India Inc next year, driven by better sales as it expects GST-related disruptions to wane, leading to an all-round recovery in economic activities. Some support also came with NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that India GDP growth rate in Q2 is likely at 6.2-6.3% and for the full year could be closer to 7% and for Second-half growth has to be 7.5%. The Budget for 2018-19 should focus on the social sector and an attempt should be made to provide universal health insurance cover to citizens. Markets also find some support with private report highlighting that Corporate India witnessed significant deal activity in the September quarter this year, as private equity invested $8.7 billion and M&A transactions attracted $2.1 billion. The investment of private equity and venture capital increased 180 percent in value terms over the last year to reach $8.7 billion in the July-September quarter of 2017. However, markets took U-turn and entered into red terrain with traders turning cautious on the back of rally in oil prices which continued to reduce expectations of rate cuts ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting early next month. Traders took note on report that the government is likely to tighten the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) through an ordinance to ensure that wilful defaulters and promoters of companies in loan default over an extended period of time won't be able to get their hands back on assets during the resolution process. Also, there will be buzz with the Cabinet giving its nod for constitution of the 15th Finance Commission that will decide the tax-sharing formula between the Centre and states for five years beginning FY21. Its recommendations will have to be in place before April 1, 2020. Though, recovery in last leg of trade helped markets to end marginally in green. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 26.53 points or 0.08% to 33,588.08, while the CNX Nifty was up by 6.45 points or 0.06% to 10,348.75.


The US markets remained closed on Thursday on account of 'Thanksgiving Day' holiday.


Crude oil futures bounced higher on Thursday, erasing earlier losses as optimism that the market is rebalancing resurfaced in holiday-thinned trade. Trade volumes were light on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Crude prices also got some support with an announcement by TransCanada revealing that it would slash oil deliveries to the United States by 85% or more on its keystone crude pipeline. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended higher by $0.18 or 0.31 percent at $58.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was up by $0.02 to $63.32 a barrel on the ICE.


Indian rupee ended considerably stronger against the US dollar on Thursday, on continuous selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained up-beat with NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that India's GDP growth rate in Q2 is likely at 6.2-6.3% and for the full year could be closer to 7% and for Second-half growth has to be 7.5%. The domestic currency also got some support with Moody's latest report where it expecting an improvement in the credit profiles of India Inc next year, driven by better sales as it expects GST-related disruptions to wane, leading to an all-round recovery in economic activities. Besides, weakness of dollar in the overseas market also boosted the value of rupee against the dollar. On the global front, broadly weaker dollar was nursing losses at two-month lows against yen on Thursday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed that some officials remain concerned about low inflation. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.57, 35 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.92 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4760.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 5003.72 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 435.15 crore with gross sales of Rs 383.00 crore.


The US markets remained closed in last session on account of Thanksgiving Day holiday, unable to give any cues to the other markets. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start though the impact of sudden sell-off that sent Chinese equities plunging was slowly receding. The Japanese market too has made a soft start after a holiday as the yen strengthened. The Indian markets extended their gaining streak in the last session, led by buying in some bluechips and on hopes that economic growth will pick up momentum on reforms initiatives. Today, the start is likely to be a bit cautious on sluggish regional cues. Though, some support will come with a private report stating that the slowdown in the economy has bottomed out, and going forward, the pace of recovery will depend on initiatives the government takes to boost the growth momentum, especially private investment. Also, the Union minister Suresh Prabhu has said that the commerce and industry ministry is chalking out a "proper" business plan based on market research in its bid to promote exports of goods and services. He added that a proper market segmentation is the need of the hour to understand the potential of domestic goods and services. Traders will also be getting some support with Sebi's plan to ease takeover rules to speed up the resolution of insolvency proceedings for stressed companies as local lenders seek to recover about Rs 9 lakh crore from entities rendered unviable by the mounting debt pile.  Meanwhile, President Ram Nath Kovind has approved an ordinance to introduce changes to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code which is aimed at tightening the current framework amid rising number of insolvency cases. There will be some buzz in PSU oil companies, as the government has exempted the merger of oil and gas PSUs from the purview of competition watchdog CCI.



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